UNSTOPPABLE GLOBAL WARMING: EVERY 1500 YEARS

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UNSTOPPABLE GLOBAL WARMING EVERY 1500 YEARS?

• Howard Maccabee, PhD, MD, FACR
• Radiation Oncologist
• Asst. Clinical Prof. UCSF
• Founder, Doctors for Disaster
  Preparedness
• WINTER 2007

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WHO AM I?WHY AM I INTERESTED?MY BIAS VERSUS
OTHERS.

• Sources Recent, most relevant
• Patrick J. Michaels, Ed., Shattered Consensus
  (The True State of Global Warming) Rowman and
  Littlefield (2005)
• S. Fred Singer and Dennis Avery, Unstoppable
  Global Warming Rowman and Littlefield (2007)
• Technical references listed on graphics.
  Additional bibliography at end.

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ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING

• The Hypothesis
• The Greenhouse Effect
• Anthropogenic (CO2) Hypothesis
• Energy Flow Schematic
• Numerical Energetics Estimation

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GREENHOUSE EFFECT A prerequisite for life on
earth, the greenhouse effect occurs when infrared
radiation (heat) is retained within the
atmosphere.
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Note 34213704 (ave. during 24h)
See also Schneider (1987) Sci.Am. 256(5) 72-80
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PROBLEMS WITH GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM)

• Fluctuations in energy flow forcings
• Fluctuations greater than human CO2 contribution
• CO2 dissolved in oceans
• H2O as greenhouse gas/clouds vs. vapor
• Time correlation of CO2 vs. temperature
• Can temperature increase cause CO2 increase?

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CO2
T
CH4
Nature, Vol.388, p.431, 3 June 1999
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DEFICIENCIES OF GCM PREDICTIONS

• Doesnt account for Antarctic cooling
• Antarctic ice increasing, not melting
• Greenland temperatures cooling/contra Gore
• Doesnt explain or predict El Nino
• Doesnt explain or predict differences between
  surface temperatures versus atmosphere
• Dependence on cloud variability
• Biases in IPCC authors favoring Kyoto

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Antarctic Temperature Trends, 1966-2000, From
Doran, et al., p.519, Nature 415 (2002) 517-20
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Ice Mass Change (elevation change) Observed over
the East Antarctic Ice Sheet from Davis, et al.,
p.1899, who attributed the rise In increasing
snowfall, which is a logical consequence of
warming the ocean surrounding Antarctica.
Science 308 (2005) 1898-1901.
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Composite Greenland Temperatures Geophys.Res.
Lett.30 (2003) 31-33
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ie 0.6 C? in 50 yr.
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(Cont.)
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NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE HYPOTHESIS

• Solar radiation as primary input (forcing)
• Solar irradiance increased by 0.05 per decade in
  30 years, ie 0.15 increase compared to 0.20
  increase T (0.6/300k)
• Suns coronal magnetic field has doubled in past
  100 years!
• Temperature change is correlated with solar cycle
• Climate history shows previous cycles, not
  related to anthropogenic CO2
• Climate history correlated with solar magnetic
  variation
• Are we beginning a new 1500 year ( 500) warming
  cycle?

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Nature, Vol.399, p.438, 3 June 1999
Note doubling of solar magnetic flux in 100 yrs.
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LIA
MWP
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From Baliunas Michaels, et al. 2005
MWP
South Pole
Greenland
LIA
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PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

• Natural cycles, especially solar irradiance,
  magnetic fields and cosmic ray variation, on
  scales of 11 to 1500 years, are probably
  unstoppable, and greater determinates of climate
  change than human activities.
• Anthropogenic CO2 effects are of similar or
  lesser magnitude than El Nino, volcanic
  explosions, or variations of solar irradiance.
• If concerned about global, regional or local
  warming, what can be done?

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AMELIORATION

• Attempts to decrease CO2 emissions (eg Kyoto) may
  cause very little temperature change. REMEMBER
  slow warming has benefits in many situations.
• EXAMPLES
• Hybrid automobiles/trucks plug-in hybrids?
• Decrease in fossil fueled electrical generation
  in favor of nuclear power.
• Remember ethanol, hydrogen and biomass generate
  CO2 proportional to energy generated.
• Solar and wind generation still not feasible on
  commercial scales.

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MITIGATION PROPOSALS

• Paul Crutzen SO2 dispersion (like volcanoes)
• Lowell Wood aerosolized metallic particles in
  atmosphere (remember Pinatubo dropped regional
  temp by 1)
• Edward Teller stimulate phytoplankton to absorb
  more CO2 (iron fertilization?) (cf P. Falkowski,
  Scientific American, August 2002
• E. Marchetti pump CO2 underground or into oceans
• John Latham create more clouds or make them
  more reflective
• Roger Angel/Stewart Brand launch a giant sun
  shade into space?
• Remember negative feedback from biosphere on CO2
  Increase Biomass?

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ADAPTATION

• Humans have adapted to climate changes for all
  human history, and have prospered during 0.6
  rise in past 30 years. (Note that per capita CO2
  emission is already decreasing in advanced
  nations.)
• Remember that temperature rise from CO2 is
  slowing down, not accelerating, because response
  is logarithmic. Most of CO2 effect has already
  occurred.
• Architectural changes, insulation, air
  conditioning.
• Remember that people in advanced nations such as
  U.S. are already voluntarily moving toward warmer
  climates.

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ECONOMIC and AGRICULTURAL EFFECTS of CLIMATE
CHANGE

• 6CO2 6H2O LIGHT C6H12O66O2?
• Increasing CO2 drives photosynthesis more
  biomass, more food crops, more trees, more rain
  forest, etc. more CO2 absorption. More food
  causes less starvation, less poverty for 1-2
  billion subsistence farmers, etc.
• The Green Revolution and adaptation to more CO2
  and warmer surface temps has been underway for
  five decades. Remember there is more forest
  biomass in US now than prior 100 years.
• Kyoto process penalizes CO2 emission, but does
  not credit CO2 absorption.
• Most greenhouse warming occurs at night,
  extending range of grain production further North
  (in NH) and reducing chance of crop and fruit
  loss to freezing.
• Penalties on CO2 emission will severely reduce
  industrial and economic growth in developing
  world, eg. China, India, Brazil, etc. which are
  currently excluded by Kyoto. Expected growth of
  CO2 production by Chinese coal-fired power plants
  is estimated to be five times the potential
  reduction from Kyoto. (N.Y. Times 6/11/06, p.1)

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BENEFITS and RISKS for HUMAN HEALTH

• More lives are saved from warmer winters than are
  lost from hotter summers. (Well known to
  hospital staff in urban areas.)
• Increased mortality from summer high temps is
  already disappearing in the US, due to air
  conditioners, fans, shelters, education, etc.
• The claims of spread of malaria and other
  vector-borne diseases are unsupported. These
  are more beneficial effects from DDT, swamp
  drainage, screens, etc. than harmful effects from
  a 1-2 temp change.
• Remember that malaria was endemic to most of the
  central and eastern US in the 19th century,
  before DDT or major CO2 production.
• The benefits to world health from reducing
  starvation, decreasing food cost and increasing
  availability of fresh fruits and vegetables, are
  obvious.

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CONCLUSIONS

• Anthropogenic CO2 is rising, and average
  temperatures are increasing slowly in the
  Northern Hemisphere, but the sky is not
  falling. Most of the climate change is due to
  natural causes, which are unstoppable.
• We are not in a climate crisis. There is no need
  to accept economic disaster or penalize the poor.
  Much can be done with amelioration, mitigation,
  and continued adaptation.
• We need more nuclear power and more sound
  research, and less fear-mongering.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

• Crichton, Michael State of Fear, Harper Collins
  (2004)
• Lomborg, Bjorn The Skeptical Environmentalist,
  Cambridge (2001)
• Michaels, Patrick J. (Ed.) Shattered Consensus
  The True State of Global Warming, Rowman
  Littlefield (2005)
• Milloy, Steven JunkScience.com, esp. The Real
  Inconvenient Truth April 21, 2006
• Ponte, Lowell The Cooling, Prentice-Hall (1976)
  (Recommended by Stephen H. Schneider)
• Schneider, Stephen H. Global Warming Sierra Club
  (1989)
• Singer, S. Fred and Avery, Dennis T. Unstoppable
  Global Warming Every 1500 Years, Rowman
  Littlefield (2007)
• Soon, Willie W-H. and Yaskell, Steven H. The
  Maunder-Minimum and the Variable Sun-Earth
  Connection, World Scientific (2003)