Transit in Los Angeles

1
Subway to the Sea
March 29, 2007
2
A Region with Daunting Challenges
LARGEST county in nation
POPULATION
AIR QUALITY
WORST in nation

• 50 from on-road vehicles

CONGESTION
WORST in nation
3
Remarkable Growth is Coming to
Southern California

• We will add nearly 6 million people by 2030, an
  increase of 36 percent from 2000

4
Vehicle Miles Population Projections
Daily VMT (millions)
Population (M)
Source SCAG 2005
5
Smog Trend in Southern California
update
30days
Source SCAQMD
6
Status of LA County Transit System

• LA County MTA second largest provider of mass
  transit services in the country in terms of
  passengers
• Average LA County MTA weekday boardings
• 1,267,000 bus
• 252,000 rail
• 1,522,000 total
• Percentage of home-to-work trips that use
  transit
• 8.5 LA County
• 15 City
• 22 Downtown LA employees

Source Moodys, MTA (Feb. 07 website and 2001
Plan), FTA, VTPI and SCAG
7
Mass Transit Demographics
Source 2002 and 2004 MTA Survey, 2000 US Census
8
MTA Bus System and Promising New Rapid Bus

• Since the 1995 Bus Riders Union Lawsuit, MTAs
  bus system has improved
• 500 new buses added
• Buses converted to clean natural gas, low floors,
  and less crowding
• Promising New Program Rapid Bus
• 14 completed of 28 planned
• Sample results (Wilshire/Whittier line)
• Speed increased by 29
• RIDERSHIP INCREASED BY 40
• 1/3 new transit riders (46 of new came from
  cars)
• 1/3 additional trips of transit riders
• 1/3 shift from existing buses
• Next challenge Exclusive lanes for Rapid

Source MTA and BRU
9
LA County Rail System Then
In 1906, 170 miles of rail track
10
Rail System Today
SANTA MONICA
CULVER CITY
PLANNED

• Rail riders formerly
• 38-42 drove a car
• 37 rode the bus
• 15 didnt make the trip
• 7 other

11
What Do We Need To Do?

• Increase transit ridership on current system
• Grow our communities smart through transit and
  pedestrian-oriented development
• Invest more resources in mass transit
  especially electric fixed guideway systems
  Subway to the Sea

12
A Convergence of Factors Creates a
Significant New Opportunity for Transit

• Rising gas prices
• Traffic congestion/public opinion
• Smart growth/LA density
• New leadership

13
Ridership Trends and Rising Gas Prices

• Gas prices rise

2005 Rail 14 increase from previous year 2005
Bus 9 increase from previous year
2.8 average annual increase FY99 to FY03
Source Moodys and MTA July 2004-2005
14
Public Attitude about Perceived Problems in Los
Angeles County
How big a problem is in your part of
California?
78
Traffic congestion on freeways major roads
Sources Public Policy Institute of California
California 2005 Taking on the Future
15
Mayor Villaraigosa's Transit Pledges

• Create a first-class bus system
• Expand the Rapid Bus and Bus Lane Program
• Expand the rail system
• Complete the Subway to the Sea
• Connect rail into LAX
• Build a downtown connector
• Expand light rail and
• BRT in high-density corridors
• Estimated Cost
• Approximately 10 Billion

SANTA MONICA
CULVER CITY
16
Subway to the Sea Assessment

• At least 26 million annual boardings
• Will serve the densest population and employment
• Will serve large concentration of transit
  dependent
• Will serve many current auto users
• High capacity trunk line increasing use of entire
  system
• Will encourage transit-oriented land use
• Electric transit will reduce both smog-creating
  emissions and green house gases

17
Subway to the Sea Assessment
Source Metro 2006 Long Range Transportation Plan
Presentation To Board of Directors, May 2006
18
Subway to the Sea Assessment
19
Subway to the Sea Assessment
20
Subway to the Sea Assessment
Legend Annual boardings per million dollars
21
Computer Modeling for the 2001 Long Range Plan
Indicated

• If the following occurred
• An expanded the transit system as in the Long
  Range Plan
• Transit/pedestrian oriented land use policies
  were adopted in urban centers
• Cost of operating autos rose and congestion
  increased.

Transit Share of Work Trips Soars
9.9
15.1
29.8
Source MTA 2001 Long Range Plan and models
Exhibits B-14, B-18, B-19, B-22 Includes
Metrolink, Rail, Tier-3 Shuttles, MUNI, Buses
22
Possible Public Funding Strategies

• Federal Funding
• Maximize share of federal transportation dollars
• State Gas Tax
• Ensure State Prop 42 gas tax goes to
  transportation
• Increase motor vehicle fuel tax / user fee
  revenue
• Possible Statewide Ballot Measure
• Seek change to 55 majority (vs. 67) for voter
  approval of local transportation bonds
• LA County Tax Increase Sales or Parcel Tax
• Seek 2/3 voter approval of authorized sales tax
  increase
• Local Development Mitigation Fees
• Cost of Driving Assessment
• VMT charges, tolls and parking meter revenues
• Carbon Tax ???