CRTI Annual Project Review CRTI Project 02-0093 RD Thursday, 8 June 2006

1
CRTI Annual Project Review CRTI Project 02-0093
RDThursday, 8 June 2006
2
AGENDA

• Introduction Project Champion Dr Michel Béland
• Project
• Project Review Committee CRTI
  secretariat Mr Ted Sykes
• Project Review Project Manager, Richard Hogue
• Project Recommendations
• Project Background Information
• Rolls of Project Partners
• Project Status and Accomplishments
• Schedule / Milestone Review
• Financial Review Costs to Date
• Financial Review Forecast Project Costs
• Review of Constraints and Assumptions
• Detailed Risk Review
• Recovery Plan Schedule
• Recovery Plan Financial
• Project Summary and Conclusions
• Summary of Actions
• Project Recommendations
• Project Performance Feedback Project Champion Dr
  Michel Béland

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PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE
Core Members Project Champion Dr Michel Béland
Project Manager Mr Richard Hogue AECL
Management Representative Dr Ken Dortmuth
Health Canada Management Representative Dr
Jack Cornett Environment Canada Management
Representatives Mr Michel Jean, Dr Keith
Puckett, Dr Gilbert Brunet Defence Research and
Development Canada (Suffield) Dr Kent
Harding Associate Members Portfolio Manager Mr
Ted Sykes Deputy Project Manager Mr Réal
DAmours Recording Secretary Mr Richard Hogue
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PROJECT RECOMMENDATIONS

• Proceed with Project on recovery plan to meet
  Project Charter goals and to modify the Project
  Charter according to guidance received
• The recovery plan has three parts
• 1. inclusion of PSTP funding that was approved
  back in July 2005 to extend the current project
  into 2007-08
• 2. inclusion of funds that were approved for
  roll-over in 2003-04 and 2004-05
• these additional funds will be applied to
• i) further improve modeling system and model
  validation,
• ii) to perform inverse source determination
  (source reconstruction)
• iii) exchange and collaborate with NARAC at LLNL.
• 3. adjustments to a few milestone completion
  dates and the addition to a few schedule tasks to
  breakdown the work until the end of the project
• There are also several minor changes to the
  charter.

PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE DECISIONS

• Questions/Decisions that the Project Team is
  requesting of the PRC
• Strategy to pursue project using funds for CRTI-2
• other ?

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PROJECT BACKGROUND

• The objective of this project is to develop and
  validate an integrated, state-of-the-art,
  high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for the
  accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow
  and dispersion of CBRN materials.
• Prototype to be ready in early 2007
• Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling
  system will provide the capability to perform
  real-time modeling and simulation tool to predict
  injuries, casualties, and contamination and to
  make relevant decisions (based on the strongest
  technical and scientific foundations) to minimize
  the consequences based on a pre-determined
  decision making framework.

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PROJECT COMPONENTS
Component 1 development of a building aware
model for urban flow prediction
(UrbanSTREAM) Component 2 inclusion of
subgrid-scale urban parameterization in
meso-scale NWP model (GEM-LAM) Component 3
coupling of microscale flow model with
urbanized GEM-LAM. Component 4 development of
a lagrangian stochastic model for prediction of
urban dispersion (UrbanLS). Component 5
validation of fully coupled multi-scale modeling
system for urban flow using field study
verification data. Component 6 (new) in the
context of PSTP, collaboration work with US NARAC
center (LLNL) and development of methodologies
for determination of emission source distribution
(source reconstruction).
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Multi-scale CBRN Hazard Prediction Model for the
Urban Environment
Plume Dispersion Models
Fluid Dynamics Models
Mesoscale
Mesoscale
MLPD
GEM/LAM
BCs
Urban scale
Urban scale
urbanLS urbanEU
Urbanized GEM/LAM
BCs
Building scale
Building scale
urbanSTREAM
urbanLS
Defines Flow
Defines Dispersion
Source Type

• CBR releases induces impacts over many spatial
  scales
• Need multi-scale approach where flow and
  dispersion are performed within nested domains

Chemical agent
Biological agent
Radiological agent
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Relationship between components
CRTI funding
Component 5 (whole system validation)
Component 2
urbanGEM/LAM
Component 4
urbanLS urbanEU
Component 3
1-way interaction
Component 1
urbanSTREAM
urbanBLS urbanAEU
Bayesian inference for inverse source
determination
Adaptive sampling strategy
Component 6 (new)
Collaboration with NARAC, etc.
PSTP supplementary funding
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Project Partners

• Environment Canada / Meteorological Service of
  Canada
• Canadian Meteorological Centre (Hogue et al.
  MSC Quebec Region (Benjamin)
• Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Directorate
  (Bélair/Mailhot et al.)
• DRDC Suffield (Eugene Yee et al.)
• University of Waterloo (F.S. Lien et al.)
• University of Alberta (J.D. Wilson et al.)
• AECL (Phil Davis et al.)
• Health Canada Radiation Protection Bureau

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PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since
November 2004 (last PRC)

• Components 1 and 4

Urban flow model (UrbanSTREAM)
ready Parallelization and optimization work
underway Being gradually implemented in CMC
environment Validation with Oklahoma City
database work underway Some preliminary tests
using GEM-LAM inflow conditions Urban flow model
(UrbanLS) ready Parallelization and
optimization work underway Being gradually
implemented in CMC environment Adaptation
underway to generate concentration fields and
visualisation issues Validation with Oklahoma
City database work underway
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Joint Urban 2003 campain (Oklahoma City)
3-D rendering from ARCVIEW shape file
Portion of OK City
satellite photograph
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Wind from SSW, Source 1
Source 1
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Modeled and Predicted Mean Winds
ANL Minisodar
FRD Sodar
ANL Minisodar (Botanical Gardens)
PNNL Sodar used to inflow conditions for
urbanSTREAM
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Concentration Field C
urbanEU
N
Source Location South side of Park Avenue
35.46871667 N,
97.51556667 W
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PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since
November 2004 (last PRC) (contd)

• Component 2 urbanized version of GEM-LAM

TEB in GEM-LAM ready Satellite derived
methodology to produce land-use classification
ready Cascade strategy and tests (2.5km to 1km
to 250m) work underway Anthropogenetic heat
flux work underway 3D turbulence kinetic energy
in MC-2 but work underway to include in
GEM Validation with Oklahoma City database work
underway MUSE-1 (March-April 2005) and MUSE-2
(Febuary-March 2006) field studies completed
with great success. Data analysis work underway.
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Oklahoma City 60-m resolution classification
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Anthropogenic heat database Application to
Oklahoma City
1700 LST

• Anthropogenic heat sources computed for summer
• Temporal disaggregating based on Sailors works
• Spatial disaggregating based on
• Population density and road network for traffic
  sources
• Industrial land use for industrial sources

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Joint Urban 2003 Experiments
15-km Regional model
IC LBC
GEM-LAM 2.5 km
GEM-LAM 250 m
IC LBC
OKC
TEB is used in 2.5 km, 1 km, and 250-m models
IC LBC
GEM-LAM 1 km
Incoming flow
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IOP6 (Daytime) Urban Heat Island (1-km Results)
Rural Stations
In red, PWIDS stations used for model
verification
TEB does not make much differences over rural
areas (expected!)
Heat Island Index
City Center Stations
Significant improvement in the city (cooler in
the day, warmer in the night)
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Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (17
March to 14 April 2005)
20 m tower
Radiative surface temperatures IR camera in
heated case
Incoming and outgoing radiation CNR1 radiometer
Kipp Zonen
Turbulent fluxes by eddy covariance 10Hz 3D sonic
anemometer CSAT3 H2O/CO2 analyzer Li-Cor
7500 Fine wire thermocouple ASPTC
Air temperature and humidity in canyons Radiative
temperature of walls
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Energy Budget Analysis
With snow
No snow
RN
Residue
RN
Residue
H
H
LE
LE
S?
S?
L?
L?
L?
S?
L?
S?
Residue Storage snow melt Anthropogenic
heat fluxes
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PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since
November 2004 (last PRC) (contd)
Components 3 coupling work underway Component
5 validation work. underway

• Scientific Technical face-to-face meeting was
  held with all team members 24-25 August 2005.
• 2 project teleconferences were held with all
  team members
• Regular meetings/teleconferences were held
  within each main components of the project
• Following the resignation of Claude Pelletier
  last fall, Yufei Zhu was hired to work on the
  3D-turbulence. Also, Cathy Xie was hired to work
  on the generation of geophysical fields
• Many presentations at conferences, technical
  notes and some peer-reviewed articles (list
  attached)

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Project related publications and presentations on
CFD and dispersion modeling Refereed Journal
Papers (published or accepted) H. Ji, F.S. Lien
and E. Yee, An Efficient Second-Order Accurate
Cut-Cell Method for Solving the Variable
Coefficient Poisson Equation with Jump Conditions
on Irregular Domain, International Journal for
Numerical Methods in Fluids (in press, January,
2006). Refereed Journal Papers (submitted) K.J.
Hsieh, F.S. Lien and E. Yee, Numerical Modeling
of Scalar Dispersion in an Urban Canopy,
submitted to Journal of Wind Engineering and
Industrial Aerodynamics in May, 2005. F.S. Lien,
E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh, Progress
and Challenges in the Development of
Physically-Based Numerical Models for Prediction
of Flow and Contaminant Dispersion in the Urban
Environment, submitted to International Journal
of Computational Fluid Dynamics (Special Issue)
in October 2005. A. Keats, E. Yee and F.S. Lien,
Bayesian Inference for Source Determination With
Applications to a Complex Urban Environment,
submitted to Atmospheric Environment in May,
2006.
Conference Papers F.S. Lien, E. Yee and H. Ji
(2005), Modelling Wind Flow and Turbulence in
Complex Urban Canopies, 9th Annual George Mason
University Conference on Atmospheric Transport
and Dispersion Modelling, July 18-20, George
Mason University, Fairfax, VG, USA. K.J. Hsieh,
A. Keats, F.S. Lien, E. Yee (2005), Scalar
Dispersion and Inferred Source Location in an
Urban Canopy, 9th Annual George Mason University
Conference on Atmospheric Transport and
Dispersion Modelling, July 18-20, George Mason
University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA. F.S. Lien, E.
Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh (2005),
Development of a High-Fidelity Numerical Model
for Hazard Prediction in the Urban Environment
(Keynote Address), Proc. 13th Annual Conference
of the CFD Society of Canada, July 31-August 3,
2005, St. Johns, Canada. H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E.
Yee (2006), Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement
Combined With Multigrid for a Poisson Equation,
Proc. 14th Annual Conference of the CFD Society
of Canada, July 16-July 18, 2006, Kingston,
Ontario, Canada. A. Keats, F.S. Lien and E. Yee
(2006), Source Determination in Built-Up
Environments Through Bayesian Inference With
Validation Using the MUST Array and Joint Urban
2003 Tracer Experiments, Proc. 14th Annual
Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July
16-July 18, 2006, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. F.S.
Lien, E. Yee and H. Ji (2006), Modeling Wind
Flow and Turbulence in Oklahoma City, Proc. 4th
International Symposium on Computational Wind
Engineering, July 16-July 19, 2006, Pacifico
Yokohama, Yokohama, Japan. E. Yee, F.S. Lien, A.
Keats, K.J. Hsieh and R. DAmours (2006),
Validation of Bayesian Inference for Emission
Source Distribution Retrieval Using the Joint
Urban 2003 and European Tracer Experiments,
Proc. 4th International Symposium on
Computational Wind Engineering, July 16-July19,
2006, Pacifico Yokohama, Yokohama, Japan.
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Others F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and
K.J. Hsieh (2006), Application of CFD to
Security Science Progress on the Development of
a High-Fidelity Numerical Model for Hazard
Prediction and Assessment in the Urban
Environment, to be published in CFD Society of
Canada Bulletin 17. Refereed Journal Papers (in
preparation) A. Keats, E. Yee and F.S. Lien
(2006), Efficiently Locating and Characterizing
the Source of an Active Tracer Through Bayesian
Inference, to be submitted to Ecological
Modelling. H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006),
Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement Combined With
Multigrid for a Poisson Equation, to be
submitted to International Journal for Numerical
Methods in Fluids. H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee
(2006), A Robust and Efficient Cartesian Grid
Method Combined With Adaptive Mesh Refinement for
Moving Boundary Problems on Irregular Domains,
to be submitted to Journal of Computational
Physics. K.J. Hsieh, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006),
Partially Resolved Numerical Simulation for
Turbulent Flow Over an Array of Obstacles, to be
submitted to Flow, Turbulence and Combustion. E.
Yee and R. DArmours (2006), Application of
Bayesian Probability Theory to Source Inversion
for European Tracer Experiment, to be submitted
to Theoretical and Applied Geophysics The
Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) E. Yee
(2005) Recent Progress on Modeling of Flows and
Dispersion From Canonical to Complex Flows,
TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, Defence
Science and Technology Organization, Melbourne,
Australia, 31 January 4 February 2005. E. Yee
(2005) Probabilistic Inference An Application
to Inverse Source Function Estimation, TTCP CBR
Group, Technical Panel 9, Defence Science and
Technology Organization, Melbourne, Australia, 31
January 4 February 2005. E. Yee (2006)
Advances in Development of Emergency Response
System for CBRN Prediction and Assessment in the
Urban Environment, TTCP CBR Group, Technical
Panel 9, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, 13-17
February 2006. E. Yee and R. DArmours (2006)
Application of Bayesian Inference to Source
Function Retrieval for European Tracer Experiment
(ETEX), TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, US
Army Dugway Proving Ground, 13-17 February
2006. Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on CB
Defence E. Yee (2006) Advanced Emergency
Response System for CBRN Hazard Prediction and
Assessment in the Urban Environment,
International Task Force 49 Meeting (Battlespace
Information Management Systems), Directorate of
Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence, Ottawa
Ontario, July 11, 2006. Other Presentations E.
Yee, A Bayesian Approach for Reconstruction of
the Characteristics of a Localized Pollutant
Source by Spatially Distributed Electronic
Noses, Moscow Colloquium, Science and
Innovations Agency of the Russian
Federation/Karpov Institute of Physical
Chemistry, Moscow, June 19-21, 2006.
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• Publications and presentations on urban
  meteorological modeling
• Refereed Journal Papers (published or accepted)
• Two short papers entitled Country Report Urban
  modeling at the Meteorological Service of Canada
  by Mailhot et al. and Urban Project Report The
  Montreal Urban Snow Experiments (MUSE) by Bélair
  et al. have been puslished the April issue of the
  IAUC (International Association for Urban
  Climate) Newsletter.
• Refereed Journal Papers (submitted)
• A paper entitled Methodology of urban cover
  classification for atmospheric modeling
  (Lemonsu, Leroux, Bélair, Trudel and Mailhot) has
  been submitted to the journal Remote Sensing of
  Environment.
• Conference or workshop Papers
• Four presentations related to the CRTI Project
  have been done at the Coastal and Mountain Lab
  Workshop in Vancouver (25-27 January 2005) in the
  session on Urban Meteorology and Impacts.
• Five presentations related to the CRTI Project
  have been done at the 39th Annual CMOS Congress
  (31 May-3 June 2005 in Vancouver). The
  presentations dealt with 1) Parameterization of
  urban covers for mesoscale models (Lemonsu et
  al.) 2) Methodology of urban cover
  classification for atmospheric modeling (Lemonsu
  et al.) 3) Numerical simulations of the urban
  boundary layer observed during Joint Urban 2003
  (Pelletier et al.) 4) Overview of the 2005
  Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005)
  (Benjamin et al.) 5) Computational modeling of
  3D turbulent flows with MC2 (Pelletier et al.).
• A presentation has been done at the RMetS 2005
  Conference (11-16 September 2005 in Exeter UK)
  Urban modelling at the Meteorological Service of
  Canada (Lemonsu et al.).
• Five presentations related to the CRTI Project
  have been done at the 89th AMS Annual Meeting (29
  Jan-2 Feb 2006 in Atlanta, GA), in the 6th
  Symposium on the Urban Environment dealing with
  1) An overview of urban modeling at the
  Meteorological Service of Canada (Mailhot et
  al.) 2) Application of meso-scale atmospheric
  modeling to the comparison of urban processes
  above North-American and European cities (Lemonsu
  et al.) 3) Methodology of urban cover
  classification for atmospheric modeling (Lemonsu
  et al.) 4) Numerical simulations of the urban
  boundary layer observed during Joint Urban 2003
  (Mailhot et al.) 5) Preliminary results of the
  2005 Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005)
  (Benjamin et al.).

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• One presentation at the 17th Symposium on
  Boundary Layers and Turbulence (22-26 May 2006 in
  San Diego CA) dealing with Numerical simulations
  of the urban boundary layer observed during Joint
  Urban 2003 (Mailhot et al.).
• Four abstracts related to the CRTI Project have
  been submitted for presentation at the coming 6th
  International Conference on Urban Climate (12-16
  June 2006 in Goteborg, Sweden) dealing with 1)
  An overview of urban modeling at the
  Meteorological Service of Canada (Mailhot et
  al.) 2) Description of the new Canadian urban
  modeling system (Lemonsu et al.) 3) Application
  of the new Canadian urban modeling system to a
  North American city (Lemonsu et al.) 4)
  Preliminary results of the 2005 Montreal Urban
  Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (Benjamin et al.).
  Two extended abstracts (for papers 1 and 4) have
  been written and submitted for distribution at
  the Conference.
• An internal seminar has been given on 24 February
  2006 by J. Mailhot in the RPN/CMC series
  describing the various components of the CRTI
  project (Development of a modeling system at the
  urban scale).
• a presentation will be given by Richard Hogue at
  the CRTI annual meeting (12-15 June 2006).
• Refereed Journal Papers (in preparation)
• Lemonsu et al., the paper Methodology of urban
  cover classification for atmospheric modeling
  will be submitted this summer to the Journal of
  Applied Meteorology and Climate.
• Lemonsu et al., general article on MUSE-2005
  including preliminary data analysis. Will be
  submitted in early fall. Journal to be
  determined.
• Chagnon et al., article on the analysis of energy
  budgets during MUSE-1 (2005) campaign. Will be
  submitted in early fall. Journal to be
  determined.
• Lemonsu et al., article on the modeling work on
  JU2003 (Oklahoma City dataset). Will be
  submitted in early 2007. Journal to be
  determined.
• Lemonsu et al., article on the modeling work with
  TEB for MUSE field studies. To be submitted in
  early 2007. Journal to be determined.
• Bélair et al. article on the coupling issues
  between meso-scale meteorological models and CFD
  micro scale flow models in the urban environment.
  Will be submitted in early 2007. Journal to be
  determined.

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PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since
November 2004 (last PRC) (contd)
Linkages with many CRTI projects has continued

• CRTI-01-0080TA Information Management and
  Decision Support System for R/N (ARGOS)
• CRTI-02-0041RD Real-Time Determination of Area
  of Influence of CBRN Releases
• CRTI-04-0127TD CHIRP Canadian Health
  Integrated Response Platform
• CRTI-03-0018RD Experimental Characterization of
  Risk for Radiological Dispersion Devices (RDDs)
• CRTI-05-0014RTD Experimental and Theoretical
  Development of a Resuspension Database to Assist
  Decision Makers during an RDD Event.
• And, since Monday June 5 following kick-off
  meeting in Vancouver
• CRTI-05-0058TD Unified Interoperability Solution
  set to Support CONOPS Framework Development
  -Municipal-Provincial-Federal Collaboration to
  CBRN Response
• To provide dispersion scenarios to the project
  using the capacity developped in 0093

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SCHEDULE / MILESTONE REVIEW General milestones
Milestone Event Completion Date
1 Project Approval 2003 April
2 Project Charter Approved 2003 July
3 RFP Release 2003 August
4 Contract Award 2003 September
5 Hire EC-CMC RES 2003 November
6 Hire EC-CMC PDF 2003 November
7 Development and implementation of high-resolution microscale urban flow model 2004 October
8 Development and implementation of microscale urban flow model using distributed drag force approach for prediction of spatially-averaged time mean wind and turbulence 2005 June
9 Development, implementation, and coupling of microscale Lagrangian Stochastic model with urban microscale flow model for prediction of short-range dispersion 2005 June
10 Development and implementation of urban parameterizations for mesoscale model (GEM-GEM LAM) 2005 June
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11 Coupling of urban microscale flow models with urbanized mesoscale flow model 2006 November (vs June 06)
12 Development and implementation of multiscale Lagrangian Stochastic model prediction of atmospheric (and, urban) dispersion at all ranges 2006 October (vs June 06)
13 Full integration of multiscale Lagrangian Stochastic model with coupled urban microscale and urbanized mesoscale model 2006 December (vs August 06)
14 QA/QC data from Montreal Urban Snow Experiments (MUSE), and make data available to US collaborators through password protected website 2007 March (new)
15 Development of adjoint of Eulerian and Lagrangian dispersion models required for rapid computation of likelihood function 2006 December (new)
16 Verification and Validation of fully integrated flow and dispersion modelling system 2007 March
17 Development of inverse source determination methodology based on Bayesian inference, and implementation of Monte Carlo sampling schemes required to extract information from posterior distribution of source parameters 2007 June (new)
18 Verification and validation of inverse source determination methodology using available concentration data sets (e.g., JU2003, ETEX, Project Prairie Grass, Sensor data fusion experiment at Dugway Proving Grounds, etc.). 2008 March (new)
19 Project Complete (Close Project) 2008 April (vs April 07)
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SCHEDULE / MILESTONE REVIEW Detailed milestones
(tasks)
See detailed milestone (tasks) document
31
FINANCIAL REVIEW PROJECT COSTS
See document extracted from project charter
revision
32
FINANCIAL REVIEW PROJECT COSTS
Without considering the PSTP (240K) or roll-over
funds (105K)
Partner Project Charter Current Budget (A) Actual Cost to Date Total Fiscal Year End Cost Forecast (B) Delta (A-B)/A
Environment Canada 2,181,000 1,716,000 (78.7) 465,000 0
DND DRDC 1,260,000 890,000 350,000 0.0016 (20K)
AECL 44,000 33,000 11,000 0
Project Total 3,485,000 2,639,000 826,000
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FINANCIAL REVIEW PROJECT COSTS
Including the PSTP (240K) or roll-over funds
(105K)
Partner Project Charter Current Budget (A) Actual Cost to Date Total Fiscal Year End Cost Forecast (B) Delta (A-B)/A
Environment Canada 2,181,000 1,716,000 (78.7) 595,000
DND DRDC 1,260,000 890,000 430,000
AECL 44,000 33,000 11,000
Project Total 3,485,000 2,639,000 1,036,000
34
PROJECT ASSUMPTIONS AND CONSTRAINTS
3.3 Project AssumptionsThe Project Plan assumes
that Funding as approved under the project will
remain available and disbursed on time OK. Start
date of research and development for components
1 and 4 is based on having a contract in place
with PWGSC by August 1, 2003 OK New and
qualified personnel will be hired . OK Key
existing personnel will be available throughout
the project. We were able to react relatively
quickly when Claude Pelletier left the project
last fall. A new employee was hired. Otherwise
we have been able to maintain the right level of
required staff to advance the project. Key
equipment (computing infrastructure) and key
datasets will be available Generally speaking
main computing infrastructures and datasets have
been available. However, there has been some
slow downs and risk associated with the
significant delays of the IBM supercomputer
upgrade and associated systems. This is a file
which we are monitoring closely. To minimize
this risk we have purchased a set of high
performance front end nodes (40 node InfinitiBand
cluster) which should be available for our use by
August 2006. We expect to be able to run our
tests on this machine. 3.4 Project Constraints A
significant component of the Validation phase of
the project (component 5) is constrained by the
availability of flow and dispersion data sets to
be acquired during JUT 2003 in Oklahoma City
OK. We have access to OKC datasets and as well
to MUSE1-2 datasets. Unfortunately, no access
is expected to the New-York City Tracer
experiment for some years.
35
RISK REVIEW
For all Federal Departments involved in the
project Risk A national or international
crisis or other immediate events triggering
emergency response will delay the conduct of the
project
Mitigation CRTI secretariat to be advised
immediately. Components of the project to be
delivered by private companies will not be
affected. Project plan for deliverables will be
modified accordingly, financial impacts will be
assessed and the Charter will be adjusted.
Defence RD Canada -- Suffield Risk Transfer
of mathematical urban flow models to Waterloo CFD
Engineering Consulting Inc. in a format
understood by all is problematic Mitigation
Ongoing communication with project partners at
Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. (e-mail,
teleconference, and meetings as needed) to allow
for smooth transfer of DRDC Suffield mathematical
models to Waterloo for numerical solution coding
--- Modelling Group at DRDC Suffield will
collaborate closely with the CFD Modelling Group
at Waterloo to ensure fidelity in the model
transfer and in the implementation of the
proposed flow models Risk Delay in obtaining
data from the Joint Urban Trial (JUT) 2003
Mitigation Ensure that all appropriate
security clearances are granted Risk IP
issues and disputesMitigation Pass information
to IP office as soon as possible for resolution
36
Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. (Dr
F.S. Lien) Risk Difficulty in the
implementation of numerical algorithms to solve
the model equations developed by DRDC
SuffieldMitigation Close collaboration with
DRDC Suffield to ensure that a working solution
is developed. This close collaboration should
involve project leads from the Waterloo CFD
Engineering Consulting Inc. (Dr Fue-Sang Lien)
and DRDC Suffield (Dr Eugene Yee) and various
members of the project leads staff. A
productive working relationship will be
maintained through regular teleconferencing,
correspondence, and meetings as
required.Mitigation Ensure that model
approaches developed by DRDC Suffield and
numerical implementation of these approach by
Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. are
fully documented. Risk
Incompatability of numerical microscale code
developed with EC-CMCs meso-gamma scale GEM-GEM
LAM codeMitigation Ongoing communication with
EC-CMC GEM-GEM LAM code developers
(meteorological modelers and software
engineers)Mitigation Access to GEM-GEM LAM
Graphical User Interface (GUI) for all project
team members from Waterloo CFD Engineering
Consulting Inc.Mitigation Access to GEM-GEM
LAM documentation and source code We have found
a good process to work together where Waterloo
and DRDC-Suffield coordinate with staff in CMC to
exchange code and tests in their respective
environments. Ultimately, the code and scripts
need to be adjusted to be able to run in an
operational set-up.
37
Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological
Centre (CMC) Risk Availability of qualified
technical staff to undertake certain phases of
the project.Mitigation One Research Scientist
(RES) and one Post-doctoral Fellow (PDF) with the
required expertise are in the process of being
hired to support work on this project full
time. Risk Availability of staff for Project
Management and Coordination Mitigation New
staff member to aid project manager (Mr Michel
Jean) with project coordination has been hired.
Risk Difficulty in the implementation and/or
porting of code to the new IBM massively parallel
supercomputing platform (which is currently being
brought on-line at Canadian Meteorological
Centre).Mitigation New RES to be hired with
strong parallel computing background.Mitigation
Resources have been set aside at CMC to manage
this issue. Risk Difficulty in coupling the
micro and meso-gamma scale model.Mitigation
Maintain close on-going collaboration with
Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc.
microscale model development and implementation
team.Mitigation Provide Waterloo CFD
Engineering Consulting Inc. Implementation Team
with full documentation for the GEM-GEM LAM
model.Mitigation Employment of a common GUI
between EC-CMC and Waterloo CFD Engineering
Consulting Inc. (CMC Modeling Toolbox will
provide the common interface). Risk Lack of
attention to needs of end users (first
responders).Mitigation Work with CMC to
understand existing emergency response system and
FNEP TAG requirements. Our strong involvement
with CRTI project 05-0058TD (inoperability
framework in the Vancouver area) will be our
main initial connection with the first
responders. Risk Tracer data from Oklahoma
test site is delayed.Mitigation Consultation
with project team members from AECL and HC-RPB
who have extensive experience in model
validation.Mitigation Additional data from
AECL and/or HC-RPB could be used for model
validation in place of the expected comprehensive
urban flow and dispersion data sets to be
acquired in JUT 2003. Risk Oklahoma City
vector format GIS data not compatible with EC-CMC
softwareMitigation Consult with team members
from DRDC Suffield and Waterloo CFD Engineering
Consulting Inc.Mitigation Ensure that the
necessary graphics packages are available at
EC-CMC.Mitigation Ensure that qualified staff
are available to manipulate the vector format GIS
data. Risk Model predictions do not agree
with experimental data within acceptable margins
(defined in the literature)Mitigation Allow
time for model revisions based upon initial
testing.Mitigation Allow time for a documented
discussion of project limitations.
38
J.D. Wilson Associates (Dr J.D. Wilson)
Risk Delay in the coupling of the micro and
meso-gamma scale model to delay Lagrangian
Stochastic (LS) model verification and
validation.Mitigation Offline model testing
with in house data sets until coupled code
complete --- LS model validation (primarily urban
dispersion model validation can begin immediately
by coupling model to the urban microscale flow
model to investigate predictive accuracy of the
model at short range up to about 2
km). Atomic Energy Canada Limited (AECL)
Risk Access to classified information is
denied.Mitigation Reliance on other team
members already having obtained the necessary
security clearance.

Risk Access to
sensitive measurements at AECL CRL is denied to
project members.

Mitigation An
agreement with the responsible body at AECL
describing the use that project members will make
with the data and a review of material to be
published by AECL to eliminate sensitive
information Health Canada (Radiation Protection
Bureau) Risk Availability of data sets for
verification and validation of the modelling
system.Mitigation Preparation of data sets in
parallel as modelling system is being developed.
Work is currently underway along those lines
through the joint work between HC RPB and EC CMC
for assessment of a noble gas analyzer in the
context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban
Treaty.
39
RECOVERY PLAN - SCHEDULE AND FINANCIAL

• Included in the schedule and financial plans in
  the project charter. Adjustments to the end time
  of some of the milestones and tasks.
• FY 05-06 funds were all used (except 20K)
• FY 06-07 and FY 07-08 context of modifications
  1- PSTP funding approved of 310K
• 70K for 2005-06   this was not used and is
  therefore "lost
• 170K for 2006-07   this was added in the revised
  charter
• 70K for 2007-08   this was added in the revised
  charter.
• 2- Use of roll-over funds from first two years of
  the project
• 53K from 2003-04
• 50K from 2004-05

These additional funds will be applied to i)
further improve modeling system and model
validation, ii) to perform inverse source
determination (source reconstruction) iii)
exchange and collaborate with NARAC at LLNL and
others.
40
PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

• Project well underway and advancing well.
  Scientific challenges are being addressed one by
  one through extensive testing and validation.
• Implementation of prototype is done within an
  operational environment currently addressing
  some very practical near-real time feasability
  issues
• Meeting at NARAC June 1-2 opens the door to
  collaboration and exchange on the validation of
  OKC cases and on issues of common interest
  (surface processes, coupling between met model
  and CFD model, etc.). Excellent leverage on
  operational issues such as trans-boundary event
  coordination as well ascollaboration with HC/RPB
  on ARGOS dataset exchange.
• Project well linked to other CRTI projects
  (Argos, 0041, 0018, 0014, 0127,0058, etc.)

41
PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS (contd)

• Linking to the EE community through
• CRTI project 05-0058TD (inoperability framework
  in the Vancouver area)
• meeting in early 2007 with representative 1st
  responder community
• Project generates significant leverage on
  scientific issues within NWP development at MSC
• high resolution meso-scale modeling
• surface processes at high resolution
• urban and land-use characterization
• Important to start working on CRTI-2 follow-up
  project (within or outside current 0093?)
• application of prototype to all main Canadian
  cities
• obtain shape files of building topography
• interact with appropriate responders and plan
  for tests and exercises,
• improvement to the system
• plan for a tracer experiment in a Canadian city
  to further validate the system
• etc.