The role of landcover change in montane mainland SE Asia in altering regional hydrological processes

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The role of land-cover change in montane mainland
SE Asia in altering regional hydrological
processes

• Jeff Fox, Omer Sen, and John Vogler
• To be submitted to
• Global Change Biology

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Objectives

• Project sought to determine
• What LCLUC have occurred in recent decades
• What hydrologically-significant LCLUC is likely
  to occur in MMSEA in the coming decades
• What degree and over what spatial extent will
  these LCLUC in MMSEA affect changes in
  atmospheric circulations and climate?

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Methods

• MMSEA Regional Land Cover Simulation
• Changing Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-s)
  modeling framework (Verburg et al, 1999 Verburg
  et al, 2002 Verburg, 2006).

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Scenario Sets
PLANTATION ECONOMY
TRADITIONAL AGROECOSYSTEM
Multi-function landscape with little or
modest intensification
Substantial expansion and intensification
of rubber and other commercial crops
DIVERSE AGROECOSYSTEM
SERVICES PARKS
Conservation in large parks separated from areas
of intensified agriculture and growing urban
centers
Smallholders producing a variety of crops
primarily for local markets
Scenario sets can be logically defined by
combination of key axes of uncertainties
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2000
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2005
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2010
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2015
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2020
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2025
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2030
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2035
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2040
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2045
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LCLUC Simulations 2000 2050
2050
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Small-scale Modeling
MMSEA Land Cover / Land Use Simulations

• Overall MMSEA Results

Increase
Little/No change
Decrease
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Climate Simulations

• We used the regional climate model (RegCM3) of
  the International Centre for Theoretical Physics
  in Italy.
• We modeled LCLUC in MMSEA using the following
  sets of simulations
• Control simulations with MMSEAs present LCLU
  (2001)
• Sensitivity simulations with MMSEAs present LCLU
  replaced with irrigated crop
• Sensitivity simulations with MMSEAs present LCLU
  replaced with short grass
• Sensitivity simulations with MMSEAs projected
  2050 LCLU

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Pertrubed LCLU maps (left side) and relative
changes in regional precipitation (right side)
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Results

• Projected LCLUC to 2050 are mostly from one woody
  plant type (e.g., evergreen broadleaf trees) to
  another woody plant type (e.g., deciduous
  broadleaf trees), reflecting changes from forest
  cover to plantation crops such as rubber and
  cashews.
• While these land covers have some parameter value
  that are significantly different, the LULUC is
  not sufficiently significant to have an impact on
  local and regional precipitation.
• Under the projected 2050 LCLU scenario, changes
  in precipitation over MMSEA, the Indochina
  Peninsula, and eastern China are usually less
  than 10.

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Land cover simulations aggregated to entire MMSEA
region (Green rows indicate an increase in land
cover type area, red indicates a decrease and
gray indicates little or no change)