INSTITUTE OF SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES

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INSTITUTE OF SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES INTERNATIONAL
CONFERENCE ON SOUTH ASIA ENGAGING SOUTH ASIA
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Friday, 28 January
2005 Ballroom II and III, Level 3, Orchard
Hotel 442 Orchard Road, Singapore
238879   Security Issues in South
Asia W.Lawrence Prabhakar, Ph.D., Visiting
Research Fellow, Institute of Defence Strategic
Studies, Singapore Associate Professor of
Political Science Madras Christian College,
Chennai, India
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Salience of South Asian Security a) South Asia
represents the essence of a civilisational
legacy, but fraught with post-colonial state
formation challenges b) South Asia is a
post-colonial security complex consists of
sub-regions that are demarcated on ethnic,
lingual and regional basis Internal and External
security challenges- fragile state structures
inefficient governance structures c) South Asian
Post-colonial state evolution has been fraught
with territorial and sovereignty disputes leading
to wars and crisis d) Challenges of demography,
development and democracy are primary security
issues in the region. e) South Asia- defined in
cold war terms a region of strategic vacuum
buffered between South West Asia and South East
Asia of high strategic importance during cold
war.
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Post-Cold War Post 11 September 2001 period has
gained its importance due to contradictory
factors i)New economic opportunities- Economic
growth in overall terms- sustained growth
expanding middle class and markets ii)Terrorism
and Conflict in inter-state intra-state
dimensions Internecine conflict,war of attrition
typologies of insurgency, militancy iii)Persistenc
e of core territorial disputes had lead-
conventional arms buildup nuclear weapon
options Escalation of crisis, arms buildup
spiral and intertwined with periods of peace and
conflict iv)Terrorism and Nuclear Weapons have
emerged as the defining causal framework of
conflict in the region.
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• Traditional security concerns have been
• Military-strategic issues- Territorial disputes
  conventional arms buildup and arms races
  nuclearization of the region
• Non-traditional security issues challenges are
  in the domestic and transnational realm
• Political Issues- Ethnic, sectarian, lingual,
  sub-regional tensions and insurgency
• Economic Issues- Growing population, stagnant
  economies and conflict proneness in conflict
  regions structural economic deficiencies
  inefficiency in government policies in social
  economic development
• Social issues Religious fundamentalism and
  militancy linked to political violence caste and
  its aberrations in social conflict.
• Ecological Issues Environmental threats of
  degradation and deprivation- lack of
  environmental conservation and regulation has
  resulted in mass deforestation and soil erosion-
  linked to rapid urbanization and loss of arable
  land and forest cover- resulting in dramatic
  ecological aberrations.

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• Terrorism emerges as a linkage in the traditional
  and non-traditional concerns of security
• It has its implications in the following
  dimensions
• Terrorism is manifest in South Asia as
• As a traditional security issue
• Factor of inter-state territorial conflict- proxy
  war- India-Pakistan conflict spectrum
• Cross border in scope justified as liberation
  struggle- used as a bargaining/ brinkmanship tool
  by Pakistan
• Factor of internal war and secessionism- Sri
  Lanka Tamil Tigers, Sindh Baluch secessionist
  insurgencies in Pakistan
• As a non-traditional security issue
• Factor to high light economic deprivation and
  malgovernance- internal naxalite movements
• Factor for violent articulation of militant
  religious and sectarian ideologies

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• Nuclear Weapons in South Asia Context and Roles
• Nuclear Weapons have emerged in South Asia for
  three reasons and roles
• N-Weapons for Deterrence- India Indias No-First
  Use Policy is essentially de-escalatory and
  relies on conventional deterrence- Nuclear
  weapons constitute assured retaliatory capability
  if India is attacked by nuclear or other WMD
  means.
• N-Weapons for Defense- war-fighting Pakistans
  declaratory first use
• N-Weapons for Brinkmanship Weapons for Limited
  War (Kargil War- Pakistan 1999)- Pakistani resort
  to ratchet up tensions
• N-Weapons for Extended Deterrence.( Chinas
  nuclear and missile aid to Pakistan and nuclear
  signalling vis-à-vis India
• Nuclear Weapons have emerged as the equalizer
  for conventional arms disparities Pakistan has
  developed war-fighting roles with n-weapons
  India has a No-First Use policy Chinas stand is
  ambiguous

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• Regional Impact of Traditional and Nontraditional
  security Issues and Challenges
• Impact of traditional and Nontraditional
  security issues and challenges has an
  overwhelming impact on
• South Asias internal and external security
  order
• Political order and stability
• violent regime change-military coups-strong
  praetorian cultures in Pakistan and Bangladesh-
  vulnerabilities of political-constitutional
  system to military takeovers
• ii) Economic development and growth
• Crisis and conflict proneness has led to
  increased employ of coercion-diversion of
  resources of economic development into conflict
  fire-fighting operations stagnant growth
  rates-unemployment unrealized development plans
  and programmes complicated by exploding
  demographics

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iii) Inter-state tensions and crisis Post-colonial
state formation has aggravated the internal
security predicaments in the region-
boundary/border disputes and tensions have
aggravated external conflicts iv) Role and extent
of external intervention and mediation Regional
crisis and its escalation has elicited external
intervention and mediation- US EU Japanese
interest in diplomatic mediation, facilitation
efforts and occasionally intervention efforts-
varied responses to external mediation
responses India has refused and opposed it
Pakistan invites it Sri Lanka has accepted
Norwegian efforts in mediation Mediation linked
with economic aid and assistance
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v) Regional crisis and Impact on Foreign Direct
Investment Regional crisis have created huge
impacts on FDI and international investment
patterns- Periods of crisis escalation has seen
evaporation of FDI and foreign governments
travel advisories during crisis and conflicts
have negative impacts on investment patterns
vi) Terrorism and its impact Terrorism has
created an attritional impact on the state,
people and armed forces -Increased reliance on
the military and coercive apparatus had not
yielded desired results -lopsided emphasis on
coercive power had resulted in lack of
development initiatives -Initiatives in
asymmetric conflict had favoured
terrorism -however where development initiatives
have been preferred-the lopsided impact had been
minimized- Indias Punjab North East
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• Dimensions of Security in South Asia
• The Security debate in South Asia is thus
  predicated on
• National security versus regional/global security
• - issues of linkage and interdependence
• State security versus Regime security
• - issues of interest and stakes national
  interest vs. group interest
• Permanent threats of security versus evolutionary
  threats of security
• - persistence versus new threats
• Traditional versus comprehensive/collective
  security
• - issues of military-strategic and societal
  security
• State security versus Human security.

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• Pathways of Security Issues in South Asia
• Divergent trends evident in the pathways of
  security in the region
• High intensity arms buildup and arms racing with
  nuclear weapons
• Low Intensity conflicts- asymmetric wars and
  Limited wars under the Nuclear Shadow-perils of
  escalation-in the absence of resolution of core
  disputes
• Inadvertent escalation of crisis emergent from
  non-state actors employment of weapons of mass
  destruction
• Terrorism and asymmetric conflict emergent trends
  of political destabilization and regime
  insecurity
• Human security in crisis in South Asia Attacks
  from Terrorism and regime reprisals
• Transnational security concerns persist
  narcotics, light weapons proliferation-linked
  with civic political conflicts
• Transnational environmental challenges-flooding,
  sea erosion- Tsunamis --new accents emphasis on
  humanitarian rescue and rehabilitation missions
• h) People-to-People contacts Track II Confidence
  Building Measures and Nuclear Risk Reduction
  Measures have been developing over time- attempts
  on crisis resolution.
• Thank You.