Title: Towards%20Political%20Feasibility%20%20Burden-sharing%20Rules%20for%20Stabilizing%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Concentrations%20from%20an%20Equity%20Perspective
1Towards Political Feasibility Burden-sharing
Rules for Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas
Concentrations from an Equity Perspective
Asami Miketa and Leo Schrattenholzer Environmenta
lly Compatible Energy Strategies
(ECS) International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA) www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ECS
Annual IEW Meeting, RITE, Kyoto, 5-7 July 2005
2Equity in the UNFCCC
- Parties should act to protect the climate system
on the basis of equity and in accordance with
their common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities (Article 3,
Principles).
3Three Equity PrinciplesQualitative definitions
Egalitarian equity Equal rights for all human
beings irrespective of their socioeconomic status
(Rose, 1992). Horizontal equity Everyone makes
an equal effort (Rose, 1992). Proportional
(sovereignty) equality Social position is the
factor that structures distribution because the
function occupied by an individual in society is
supposed to correspond to the value of this
individuals work for that society. Based on
Aristotle (people are unequal and are therefore
treated unequally) as quoted by Blanchard et
al., 2001).
4Three Equity PrinciplesQuantitative indicators
Emission entitlement per capita (egalitarian
equity) Emission entitlement per GDP (horizontal
equity) Emission entitlements in terms of
percentage change relative to a base year, here
1990 (proportional equality)
5Two Burden-Sharing Rules
Convergence to equal emissions per capita, here
1.08 tC/year Convergence to equal carbon
intensity of GDP, here 83.6gC/US90
(83.6tC/million US90)
6One Common Stabilization Scenario MERGE-B2S550KP
7Emission Entitlements, MtCEqual emissions per
capita approach
8Emission Entitlements, MtCCarbon intensity
approach
9Egalitarian Equity Emissions per capita, tC/yr,
two burden-sharing rules
Carbon intensity approach
Equal emissions per capita approach
10Horizontal Equity Emissions per GDP, gC/US90,
two burden-sharing rules
Carbon intensity approach
Equal emissions per capita approach
11Proportional Equality Relative emissions,
1990100, two burden-sharing rules
Carbon intensity approach
Equal emissions per capita approach
12Comparison with BAU Emissions
13Fractions of BAU EmissionsCumulative
entitlements under two rules as fractions of
cumulative BAU emissions
14Variables in Burden-Sharing Rules
- How to define and quantify effort
- Hot air
- Thresholds of wealth
- Date of convergence
15Summary and Conclusions
- For some countries, e.g. China, the differences
between the allocations (according to the
different rules) turn out smaller than expected,
at least later - Big differences between burden-sharing rules may
need parameterization to be useful for
negotiators - Combination of different equity aspects seems
necessary to achieve political agreement - Further analysis of the burden requires a model
to assess the economic consequences of
implementing the rules
16References
Klaassen G, Miketa A, and Zhu B, 2003, Outcome
equity of burden sharing rules for stabilizing
greenhouse gas concentrations, paper presented
at the 12th annual EAERE conference, Bilbao, June
28-30, 2002. Manne AS, Richels RG, 2004, MERGE
An Integrated Assessment Model for Global Climate
Change, Stanford University and EPRI,
http//www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE/GERAD1.pdf. Mi
keta A, Schrattenholzer L, 2004, Burden-sharing
rules for stabilizing greenhouse-gas
concentrations and their equity implications,
Energy Policy, http//www.sciencedirect.com/scienc
e. Miketa A, Schrattenholzer L, 2004,
Burden-sharing rules for stabilizing
greenhouse-gas concentrations and their equity
implications, (long version), http//www.iiasa.ac
.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?IR04057.