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Central Topic

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in the midst of federally mandated restoration ... Restoration/Management Reality Check : It's. always about the water and plans ... Photo Frederic Larson SF Chronicle ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Central Topic


1
CASCaDE
A modeling study designed to help managers and
scientists address ecosystem resource and
restoration questions in the San Francisco Bay
and Freshwater Delta.
Jan Thompson Colleagues U.S. Geological Survey
Courtesy of J. Cloern
2
What we will discuss
  • Context this is NOT Monterey Bay.
  • How we integrate climate and hydrodynamic models
    with ecologic models with widely differing
    temporal and spatial scales
  • Using two model hierarchies when needed
  • Accepting the limits of our findings fish
  • What we wont discuss- the many details of the
    models

3
CALFED Project Management Jim Cloern USGS (Menlo
Park)
Primary Producers Lisa Lucas USGS (Menlo Park)
GCM Dan Cayan, Mike Dettinger USGS (La Jolla),
SCRIPPS
Watershed Noah Knowles USGS (Menlo Park)
Bivalves as Consumers, Bioaccumulators Jan
Thompson USGS (Menlo Park)
Delta Hydrodynamics Nancy Monsen USGS (Menlo
Park) Temperature Mark Stacey (UCB) Statistical
Temp and Salinity Mark Stacey (UCB)
Contaminant Bioaccumlation Sam Luoma, Robin
Stewart USGS (Menlo Park)
Geomorphology Bruce Jaffe, Dave Schoellhamer,
Neil Ganju USGS (Santa Cruz, Sacramento)
Fish Models Larry Brown, Bill Bennett USGS
(Sacramento) UCD
4
Time to re-order your brain.
SF Estuary
  • a well mixed estuary with freshwater flow
  • shallow (average depth is 6 m) with large
    intertidal areas
  • high nutrient loading but low productivity- we
    need more primary production
  • highly manipulated system tidal marsh is
    diked, farmed and subsided

5
Environmental, political, economic context.
  • drinking water for 23 million
  • supports 30B agricultural industry
  • very large resource (water) management/operations
    issues
  • in the midst of federally mandated restoration
  • at risk from levee failures with huge economic
    consequences for state and federal economies
  • habitat for failing endangered species

6
Past actions and economic realities limit our
restoration options
Mercury
Se
Se
Freshwater
Dikes Subsidence
Exotic Species
Wastewater Effluent
Dikes
Freshwater
7
Restoration/Management Reality Check Its
always about the water and
plans must obey that
paradigm

Major Rivers State Projects Federal
Projects Local Projects
Most of Californias freshwater is produced in
the SF Estuary watershed and consumed in Southern
California and central valley
8
Things that are unlikely to change
Invasive species
Channelized not dendritic system
Armored levees with limited foliage
50 reduction in freshwater
Sub-sea level Agriculture
CA DWR
CA DWR
9
Things that are changing quickly Native fish
have declined to new lows and we dont really
know why but it is ecology and so it is likely
to be messy.
CA DFG
10
Things that are changing quickly Selective
levee repair is on the fast track and these
decisions will further define resource and
restoration options
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Michael
Chertoff…viewing at risk Delta levees
Courtesy of J. Cloern
Photo Frederic Larson SF Chronicle
11
Levees define the delta boundaries and decisions
on which levees will be allowed to fail will
affect potential salinity
distribution and ecosystem function. There is
recognition that science needs to be part of the
decisions (CALFED)
From Envisioning Futures, Public Policy
Institute, 2007
12
What we proposed to do in this political climate
Help answer the if and how of restoring
the system and maintaining resources (We asked!)
Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change
in the Delta Ecosystem
13
Our primary goals are to examine the
sustainability and feasibility of restoration and
water management within the context of climate
change and sea level rise,…
14
land-use change
Urban Extent
Tidal Wetlands
Major Earthquakes
M6 M7 M8
http//sfbay.wr.usgs.gov/general_factsheets/images
/IntSci_big.gif
15
and infrastructure change
planned
and unplanned
Jones Tract levee breach 2004
http//wwwowe.water.ca.gov/newsreleases/images/jon
esflood/jonesaerial.jpg
16
  • Prescribed scenarios of change for
  • Climate
  • Sea Level
  • Then for
  • Delta Configuration
  • Land Use
  • Water Resource Operations
  • will resonate through these models

17
Of the many climate-change projections for the
21st Century California, we are using those that
fall within the 68 percentile (see Dettinger
2005).
20 of 23 in this range
19 of 23 in this range
cm/month
cm/month
Dettinger, 2005
18
We have chosen four climate scenarios
  • Not so much warmer with no ppt change
    (PCM-B1)
  • Medium warmer with no ppt change (PCM-A2)
  • Medium warmer and drier (GFDL-B1)
  • Much warmer and drier (GFDL-A2)

…plus a paleo-inspired mega-drought scenario
19
  • Other scenarios
  • Land use and water operations - state prescribed
  • Sea level (Cayan, D.R., Bromirski, P., Hayhoe,
    K., Tyree, M., Dettinger, M., and Flick, R.,
    submitted, Climate change and the potential for
    sea-level extremes along the California coast
    Climatic Change, 24 p.)
  • Delta configuration in flux (decided Jan 08 by
    state)

Impounding freshwater
Through-delta conveyance (PP)
Increasing salinity gradient variability
20
Our Challenges Scales vary by OMs and errors
will propagate and limit our quantitative
conclusions
San Francisco Bay
Sacramento R
Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta
Central Valley Watershed
Sierra-Nevada
San Joaquin R
We will explore two solutions…..
Pacific Ocean
21
One solution Climate projections are routinely
done for a small number of locations. Because
freshwater inflows supply the dominant long-term
control on the salinity, hydrodynamics, and
ecology of the estuary the connection between GCM
and watershed model is critical
22
The scaling adjustment must be done at the
regional climate model
23
A new method called "CONSTRUCTED ANALOGS" has
been developed for downscaling daily climate
simulations
Input Lo Res
Output Hi Res (12km)
Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R.,
in revision, Downscaling using constructed
analogues daily US precipitation and
temperatures J. Climate, 24 p.
24
These new climate projections are then passed to
the watershed model
  • Climate Change
  • Precipitation (GCM)
  • Temperature (GCM)
  • Humidity (GCM)

Hydrology Management Models
  • Outputs
  • Reservoir outflows
  • Stream temps
  • Delta inflows

Knowles, 2000
25
Geomorphology and suspended sediment will change
with varying freshwater flow, sea level, and
sediment load
San Pablo Bay sedimentary bay with legacy
mercury
Suisun Bay in the center of restoration action
and ecological processes
26
Models use hind-casting of historical geomorphic
change for model development, validation,
verification
27
San Pablo Bay is being modeled because it is the
largest sub-embayment with a dynamic
erosion/accretion history and because potential
resuspension of legacy mercury in sediment will
challenge restoration plans.
  • DELFT3D SWAN models

28
Suisun Bay suspended sediment statistical model
is at the tidal timescale
  • Statistical model of field data for suspended
    sediment
  • 1-D modified Uncles-Peterson and Wright
    Schoellhamer (2005) models for sediment supply
    and transport
  • Sediment redistribution and deposition using ROMS

Advective uASSCu, Dispersive
uSSCu'A, Stokes u'A'SSCu
29
Delta hydrodynamics model includes in-delta
diversions (gt1300), operations, tidal and
freshwater boundaries, 50 m resolution
Detailed hydrodynamics are necessary for ecologic
process understanding in the north bay and Delta
computationally costly
3D hydrodynamic (Casulli and Cattani 1994)
and scalar transport model (Gross 1999) with
TRIM3D code modified by Monsen (2001) for Delta
application
30
Output from the Delta hydrodynamics model will be
a component of all ecologic and contaminant models
  • Tidal and residual current speeds and directions
  • Stage total depth
  • Salinity, temp distribution
  • Source water mixture
  • Residence time
  • Transport routes and rates throughout the delta
  • Timing and duration of floodplain inundations

31
Phytoplankton production model is layered on top
of TRIM hydrodynamics. Biological model
includes phytoplankton growth processes, sources,
and sinks
32
stage, velocity, turb. mixing coeffs (Hydro)
PAR (solar radiation) (GCM, Regional)
Phytoplankton model shows the tight connection
between models
  • zooplankton
  • grazing rates
  • f(ZP biomass, T, phyto biomass)
  • T from (Hydro, Temp)

turbidity (Geomorph)
Hydro/salt/ temp BCs (Watershed)
clam grazing rates (Bivalve)
33
Test of Concept Phytoplankton model results are
promising even with mis-matched years for
grazing rates (2003) and hydrodynamics (2002)
measured
modeled
34
A separate statistical model will produce
critical ecological parameters, salinity and
temperature, for all forecasted freshwater inflow
data - these are non process results
Climate Scenario Watershed Output Salinity,
Temp f(Q) Ensemble of Salinity, Temp
Distributions
Initial Conditions Threshold
Error Range
Bivalves Egeria Fish
35
Contaminant modeling is based on water source and
species accumulation models (previously derived
for major bivalves) requires mixing component
of TRIM
36
The Fish Modelers are at the end of the cascade
and are building threshold conceptual models
37
A basic conceptual life-history model will be
built for many species.
Spawning cues Salinity Temperature Flow
(floodplain inundation) Tides
Adult survival Salinity (?) Temperature (?) Food
supply Predation (habitat)
Sexually Mature Adult Fish
Egg
Egg survival Salinity Temperature Flow
(floodplain inundation and extreme events)
Contaminants Model
Adult Fish
Larval survival Salinity Temperature Flow
(extreme events) Food supply
Juvenile survival Salinity (?) Temperature
(?) Food supply Predation (habitat)
Larva
Juvenile Fish
38
Funding
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