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Religare Commodities Metals and Energy Research

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Religare Data Centre has ISO/IEC 27001:2005 certification. Northern Regional Office ... elimination of Dow from the model keeps the fitness intact, hence ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Religare Commodities Metals and Energy Research


1
Religare CommoditiesMetals and Energy Research
2
Religare Enterprises Ltd
  • Religare Enterprises Ltd is a Ranbaxy promoter
    group company
  • 6 Regional offices
  • 25 Zonal Offices
  • Presence through more than 900 locations-Pan
    India
  • Present across more than 320 Cities Towns
  • Total group employees 6,500 plus
  • Client Interfaces through the Retail, Wealth and
    Institutional spectrums
  • Among the largest Retail brokerage branch
    network, going beyond Tier-I and Tier-II cities
    in India
  • Overseas presence with a representative office in
    London, with aggressive plans of straddling other
    parts of the globe in this financial year
  • Religare Data Centre has ISO/IEC 270012005
    certification

3
Corporate Structure
Religare Finvest Ltd
Religare Wealth Management Services Ltd
Religare Securities Ltd
Religare Capital Markets Ltd
Religare Commodities Ltd
Religare Enterprises Ltd
Religare Finance Ltd
Religare Insurance Broking Ltd
Religare Venture Capital Pvt Ltd
Religare Realty Ltd
4
Business Structure
Client Interface
Retail Spectrum Institutional Spectrum Wealth Spectrum
To provide customized wealth advisory services to High Net worth (HNI) Individuals
Wealth Advisory Services Portfolio Management Services International Advisory Fund Management Service (AFMS) Priority Equity Client Services Arts Initiative

To cater to a large number of retail clients by offering all products under one roof through the Branch Network and Online mode
Equity and Commodity Trading Personal Finance Services Mutual Funds Insurance Savings Products Personal Credit Personal Loans Loans against Shares Online Investment

To Forge build strong relationships with Corporate clients and Institutions
Institutional Broking Investment Banking Merchant Banking Transaction Advisory Corporate Finance

5
Operating Structure
Customized Solutions
Key Facts
  • Retail Division
  • Looking after the retail investors or individual
    clients. Either they trade themselves or dealers
    trade on their behalf on the basis of the
    research calls given by the Religare research
    team after the clients confirmation.
  • Corporate Desk
  • This desk deals exclusively with the Corporates,
    assisting them in the hedging strategies or
    giving them the right business solution for
    treasury investments
  • Arbitrage Desk
  • This desk provides delivery-based Spot-futures
    arbitrage to high net worth client investments
  • Mandi Division (Rural)
  • This division specially caters to needs of
    clients who are in rural markets, such as
    farmers, traders, etc

Retail Division
Corporate Desk
Religare Commodities Ltd
Arbitrage Desk
Mandi Division
6
Commodities Research
  • Commodities Research has been classified into
    two.
  • Metals and Energy Research
  • Agri Research
  • Scope
  • Research supports intraday traders to maximize
    wealth on short-term volatility.
  • Research Prepares periodic reports for medium
    term wealth maximization.
  • Research supports corporate and institutional
    team for Presales and Postsales Research

7
Metal Model for High Frequency prediction
Variables Used
Name Variables
Gold gold
Silver silver
Copper copper_usd
Crude Oil Light sweet Crude_nymex
Euro/USD euro_usd
Dow Index dow
For gold the international interbank spot data is
taken in (/Oz), silver data taken from
international interbank spot in (/Oz), copper
prices are taken from LME 3 months forward
(/ton), crude oil taken from NYMEX (/bbl),
euro/usd is taken form spot interbank refrence
rate, Dow taken as INDEX data declared by NYSE.
8
Correlation Matrix
Gold silver Copper euro_usd crude_nymex dow
Gold 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.7
silver 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.6
Copper 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3
euro_usd 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.9
crude_nymex 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.7
dow 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.0
Correlation analysis shows that there is a good
correlation between gold and euro_usd and then
gradually sloping towards silver and then dow,
copper and crude_nymex. Crude has shown the least
correlation to gold and then copper.
9
Regression results
R2 shows a high degree of fit, and SD for
residual is well into range.
10
Analysis and conclusion
The model shows a greater degree of fit i.e R2 of
0.9 and hence can be considered as a good model
for gold price prediction. The scatter diagram
for residual fits shows that the predictor
maximum deviation ranges from -40 to 40 but well
remain in the median range of 2-4. The below
scatter chart plots the residual with date.
11
Scope for Future Work
  • The selection of independent variables was
    subjected to availability of high frequency data
    (daily) so more independent variables should be
    introduced.
  • Dow and euro_usd shows high correlation and hence
    may pose a problem of multicolinearity but P
    (Probability of hypothesis) has not eliminated
    either of the variables.
  • Elimination of one of the variables changes the
    model, but eventually elimination of Dow from the
    model keeps the fitness intact, hence dow can be
    significantly removed, future work will include
    addition of such not correlated exogenous
    independent variable in the equation.
  • The model may be fitted with Indian data for
    making it relevant to Indian market.

12
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