Durable returns to a durable state?

1
Durable returns to a durable state?

• An opinion poll on the situation of returnees in
  Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Rolf Kappel, NADEL, ETH Zurich
• Presentation for the press conferences
• Sarajevo, 23. August 2006
• Banja Luka, 24. August 2006

2
Rationale of the study

• The return process is stipulated in the Dayton
  Peace Agreement.
• About 1 million returnees since the end of the
  war.
• The role of minority returnees in a multi-ethnic
  nation state.
• From anecdotal evidence to statistically reliable
  inferences.
• Potential and limitations of an opinion poll.

3
Concept of durable returns

• Derived from UNHCRs preconditions for
  repatriation in safety and dignity
• Right to return
• Voluntary return
• Physical safety
• Legal safety
• Material safety
• Reconciliation

4
Voluntary returns and assistance

• More than 90 of the returnees explain that their
  return was voluntary.
• Only 3 of former IDPs and 7 of former refugees
  claim that their return was initiated by
  authorities and did not coincide with their own
  plans.
• 95 have returned to their pre-war homes, only 5
  have since then moved elsewhere.
• 51 of former IDPs and 41 of former refugees
  explain that they have received assistance after
  their return. Ratios are higher in rural than
  urban areas.
• 80 see assistance as very important, 20 as
  fairly important.

5
Physical safety and discrimination (1)

• Around 90 of the respondents feel safe from
  violent threats based on inter-ethnic tensions.
• 12 of returnees fear such threats, compared to
  8 of domiciles.
• The ratio is 15 for minorities and 8 for
  non-minorities.
• Feeling insecure is more widespread in urban
  areas and among elder people than in rural areas
  and among younger people.

6
Physical safety and discrimination (2)

• More than 70 of the respondents think that the
  rights and opportunities of people to shape their
  lives are not equally distributed.
• Minorities have a significantly more positive
  view in that respect than non-minorities.
• Around 80 of the respondents hold the opinion
  that members of minority groups can pursue
  cultural and religious beliefs without facing any
  problems.

7
Physical safety and discrimination (3)

• Discriminations against minorities supposedly
  exist in
• job seeking (54 of minority respondents hold
  that opinion, 32 of non-minority respondents)
• public services (26 of minority respondents hold
  that opinion, 13 of non-minority respondents)
• less friendly treatment in daily life, different
  treatment of minority children in school.
• Ratios of personal experience of discrimination
  among minority respondents are significantly
  smaller 8 in the RS, 3 in the Federation.

8
Legal safety, political freedoms and rights (1)

• More than 90 of returnees have an ID-card, and
  almost 80 hold a passport.
• Virtually all returnees were able to claim their
  property / user rights for houses or apartments.
• Almost 30 of respondents think that the freedom
  of political opinion and activities is limited.
• More than 40 of the respondents think that media
  are not independent of undue political influence.
• More than 40 of the respondents hold the opinion
  that they cannot influence policies on the local
  level.

9
Legal safety, political freedoms and rights (2)

• More than 40 of the respondents think that
  election processes are not fair and correct.
• All of the above ratios are higher for minorities
  than non-minorities, and higher in the RS than in
  the Federation.
• Only very small margins of respondents, between
  1 and 2, explain that they themselves have been
  hampered in exercising electoral rights and
  political freedoms.

10
Material safety and economic perspectives (1)

• 13 of returnees explain that they have
  difficulties to feed their family that ratio is
  6 for domiciles. This sort of extreme poverty
  is more frequent in rural areas than in urban
  areas, and more frequent among minority
  respondents than among non-minority respondents.
• 29 of returnees explain that they can provide
  sufficient food but have difficulties to pay
  bills for clothing and utility bills that ratio
  is 23 for domiciles. This sort of general
  poverty is more frequent in the RS than in the
  Federation.

11
Material safety and economic perspectives (2)

• Large proportions of respondents, roughly 80,
  are satisfied with public infrastructure and
  services.
• About 40 of respondents explain that their
  financial situation has worsened since their
  return or the end of the war (40 no change
  20 improvement).
• Regarding expectations for the future, 50 think
  that the situation of the household will remain
  unchanged over the next 5 years 30 expect
  improvements, 15 expect deterioration.
• Domiciles tend to be more pessimistic than
  returnees, and respondents in the RS are more
  pessimistic than in the Federation.

12
Reconciliation

• More than 60 of respondents report to have
  regular and voluntary contacts across ethnic
  boundaries.
• The fraction of returnees and members of
  minorities is higher than that of domiciles.
• Almost 60 of respondents think that politicians
  have achieved small or no progress in
  reconciliation (40 for religious leaders).
• The readiness of respondents to live in a
  multi-ethnic nation state is in rather strong
  contrast with the opinion on the very limited
  progress achieved by politicians and religious
  leaders in promoting reconciliation.

13
Durability of returns and success of nation
state building (1)

• 65 of returnees explain that they plan to stay.
• 20 are undecided (28 younger, 12 older
  people).
• 10 plan to leave (16 urban, 5 rural).
• The fraction of those who plan to stay is higher
  in rural areas and among elder returnees.
• The fraction of those who are undecided or plan
  to leave is higher in urban areas and among
  younger people.

14
Durability of returns and success of nation
state building (2)

• 36 of respondents think that the nation building
  process will be successful.
• 37 see equal chances of success and failure.
• 13 expect failure.
• Returnees are more optimistic than domiciles.
• Older respondents in rural areas are more
  optimistic than younger people in urban areas.

15
Conclusions (1)

• The return process achieved so far is a relative
  success.
• Assistance provided by the international
  community and by domestic authorities was much
  appreciated.
• The return process is not yet finished
• the durability of returns can and should be
  strengthened and consolidated
• there are still IDPs and refugees waiting for
  their returns the number of returns has dropped
  dramatically in recent years.
• Improving the economic development (poverty
  reduction, increasing formal employment and
  social security) will have a positive impact on
  new returns and on the durability of returns.

16
Conclusions (2)

• Discriminations against members of minorities can
  and should be reduced, above all at the local
  level. Civil society organisations may play an
  outstanding role.
• Strengthening of political competences and
  capacities on the local level should continue.
• Politicians and religious leaders should act as
  role models to promote reconciliation.
• More political competences should be shifted from
  the entity level to the state level.
• The international community should continue its
  support for for the return process and the nation
  building process.