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Understanding and Protecting Our Home Planet

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Title: Understanding and Protecting Our Home Planet


1
Observations, Models, Experiments, and
Uncertainty Science Framework for Rapid
Prototyping Capacity NASAs Applied
Sciences Program

RPC Workshop

LaRC
April 19, 2006

L. DeWayne Cecil
2
9 Next Generation Missions
3
Goals of the Science Framework Session
  • Overview Of An Example RPC Experiment
  • Present Several Tools That Can Be Components In
    Rapid Prototyping Configurations
  • Research Results From
  • NASAs Modeling and Analysis Program
  • Earth System Modeling Framework
  • NASAs Water and Energy Management Program
  • Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
  • Pros and Cons
  • Project Columbia
  • Maintain Scientific Rigor Throughout The Process
  • Characterization and Reporting of Uncertainty
  • Science and Engineering Community Peer Review

4
Bringing Global Climate Change Model Projections
to the Watershed Scale Pitfalls, Opportunities,
and Uncertainties for Decision Support
  • Watershed-Scale Applied Sciences Questions?
  • (1) How can global predictions of future rapid
    climate change and its effects be enhanced and
    used at the watershed scale?
  • (2) How are uncertainties in global projections
    compounded, or not, at the watershed scale?

5
Bringing Global Climate Change Model Projections
to the Watershed Scale Pitfalls, Opportunities,
and Uncertainties for Decision Support
Potential Partners
NIST
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND DATASETS
RAPID PROTOTYPING VV DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
  • Watershed scale, 2-D, snow, ice, and water mass
    balance model (Plummer and Phillips, 2005) with
    input from NASA global scale projections
  • Rigorous large ensemble probability distribution
    analyses
  • OSSE datasets for next generation satellites
  • Rigorous statistical design built into OSSEs
    upfront (NIST as a partner)
  • Climate Models in ESMF GISS Model E and other
    GMAO Analyses

Predictions
  • Use OSSE simulated next generation and current
    mission datasets for climate change scenario
    assessments WITH associated uncertainties carried
    throughout projections
  • Use OSSE simulated data from next generation
    missions with existing measurements of climate
    change parameters from space to estimate the
    watershed-scale mass balance and climate change
    impacts
  • Interagency Alignment CCSP, CCTP, US GEO
  • Uncertainty analyses, uncertainty analyses,
    Uncertainty analyses!
  • Global/Regional/Water-shed scale model products
  • Regional differences in aerosols and trace gas
    concentrations and impacts on climatology
  • 12 18 month seasonal forecasts,
  • 5 20 year projections,
  • Century timescale projections

VALUE BENEFITS
  • Impacts of global climate change on the Watershed
    scale
  • Water resource management on local scale
  • Climate-change impacts on waste- management
    facility sighting
  • Decision support with uncertainty quantified and
    communicated (NSF as a partner)
  • Natural anthropogenic aerosols, black carbon
  • Trace gas profiles
  • Climate-Change Parameters
  • Tropical/Global/Regional Precipitation
  • Total Aerosols

EARTH OBSERVATIONS
  • Atmosphere Aura, TRMM, OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat,
    GPM, Aquarius
  • Land ICESat, MODIS
  • Field Mission Watershed- scale airborne
    campaigns, Ground-based monitoring network

Observations
Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community
Peer Review
Next Generation Missions
6
Tasks of the Chief Scientist
  • Science Advisor to Program Director, Applied
    Sciences
  • Facilitation of Increased Collaboration Between
    Data Managers and Data Assimilators/Modelers
  • Guide the Capacity Building for Addressing
    Growing Ocean Science Issues
  • Infuse Scientific Rigor Into the Transition
    Process from Research Results to Operations
  • Science Advisor to Program Managers in 12 Focus
    Areas of National Priority
  • Establish an External Earth Science Applications
    Advisory Committee
  • Help to Expand Collaboration With New Research
    Partners
  • Establish Guidelines for Benchmark Reports and
    Monitor Process from Proposal Activity to
    Published Documents

7
NASA Plan for Applied Sciences Activities
Research and Analysis Program
Applied Sciences Program
Operations
National Applications
Crosscutting Solutions
supply
demand
Scientific Rigor
Rapid Prototyping Capacity
RO
NASA Earth Science Research
Integrated System Solution
Societal Benefits
Solutions Network
Uncertainty Analysis
  • Water and Energy
  • Climate
  • Weather
  • Carbon
  • Solid Earth
  • Atm Composition
  • Solar
  • Verification and Validation
  • Benchmarking
  • Evaluation

8
Why host a global modeling session at a future
AGU meeting?
  • Earth is a complex system driven by many physical
    processes
  • Understanding the earth systems naturally
    gravitates towards modeling
  • Capacity of computing systems allow increasingly
    more detailed and sophisticated modeling
  • More sophisticated models require understanding
    across discipline boundaries (oceans to
    atmospheres to solid earth geophysics) and ever
    increasing demand for observations to validate
    and initialize the models, and potential for
    assimilation into the models

9
Why should modelers and data providers work more
closely?
  • Earth observations have increased many fold in
    the past decade, and models are arguably the
    biggest consumer of those earth observations
  • Theres a perception that observational data are
    underutilized in global models and when they are
    used, they are used inefficiently

10
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11
  • Late Pleistocene pluvial lakes in the Western
    Great Basin
  • Reheis et al.

12
Essence of the session Exchange of
information
  • about models and their needs for data.
  • about data sets of potential interest to models
  • about modeling techniques of potential use across
    earth science modeling communities

13
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14
Intellectual Leadership
15
Contact Information
L. DeWayne Cecil, Ph.D. NASA Applied Sciences
Program Chief Scientist/Systems Engineer NASA
Headquarters 300 E St. SW Washington, DC
20546 202-358-0743 lcecil_at_hq.nasa.gov
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