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A presentation on scenarios at the SA Army Vision 2020 Seminar

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and Global Politics. on the SANDF ... building, common national vision and ... Internationalization of national politics. Shrinking national sovereignty. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: A presentation on scenarios at the SA Army Vision 2020 Seminar


1
Future implications of Domestic and Global
Politics on the SANDF
A presentation on scenarios at the SA Army Vision
2020 Seminar Midrand Theo Venter 2 November 2006
2
(No Transcript)
3
Fools to the left Jokers to the right Stuck in
the middle with you! Steelers Wheel 60s
4
Outline
  • On planning and scenarios.
  • Where is South Africa heading?
  • Africa?
  • Global trends.
  • Conclusions.
  • Implications for the SA Army.

5
Methodology
6
What is a scenario?
Inevitable change
Uncertain change
7
What is important?
Great uncertainty and huge impact is important
Great uncertainty but little impact is of no
consecquence
8
Scenarios are not forecasts
Scope
Scenario Planning
Forecasting
Timescale
9
This is how we were thinking in the 80s!
10
Mechanistic change
11
Organismic change
12
Paradigmatic change
13
Transformation through paradox Second curve
thinking
Second Curve To reach for impossible results
On the edge of chaos The zone of creativity and
change
The butterfly effect
Strange attractor new ideas
Environmental change
Critical chaos
Rude awakening
Risk
Chaos and uncertainty
First Curve Evolutionary change
Direction of transformation
(From Handy, 1994, The Empty Raincoat pp 49-64)
14
The scenario process
  • Time horizon
  • Scope
  • Constraints
  • Deadlines
  • Focus
  • Check plans
  • Check options
  • Synthesize
  • Political
  • Economic
  • Social
  • Technology

Refine options
Build scenarios
Create options
Set objectives
Identify key issues
  • Brainstorm
  • Outlines
  • Core scenarios
  • Stakeholders
  • Trust
  • Listen
  • Locate
  • Choose

Feedback Maintain learning
15
Scenario Planning Failed forecasts
Unexamined assumptions
1.
Limited or misplaced expertise
2.
Lack of imagination
3.
Neglect of constraints
4.
Excessive optimism
5.
Mechanical extrapolations of trends
6.
Overspecification
7.
Source
J.F. Coates, Technical Forecasting, 1994
16
South Africa
17
Requirements for successful and sustainable
transition to democracy
  • The consolidation of the transition to democracy
    at all levels of government.
  • The transformation of political legitimacy into
    effective government.
  • The development of intergovernmental structures
    on provincial and local government level.
  • The stabilisation of society, focusing social
    decay, crime and violence.

18
Consolidating democracy
No institutionalisation
Revolution
Coup détat
Civil War
Mode of power transfer
Insurgency
?
Democratic transitions
Democratic stability
Degree of polarisation
Highly institutionalised
19
Requirements for successful and sustainable
transition to democracy
  • Developing a coherent foreign policy.
  • The transformation of developmental needs into an
    effective development framework, focusing on
    human development and human security.
  • Place the economy on a stable growth path.
  • Making South Africa safe for investment.
  • Focusing on nation-building, common national
    vision and symbols, all within an accommodating
    and tolerant political culture.

20
Characteristics of Liberation Governments
  • Consortia of political interests (A broad
    church).
  • The urge to recreate society (Transformation vs.
    governance).
  • Opposition weakened through a process of
    delegitimisation.
  • Efforts to internalise opposition.
  • Politics usually contradictory
  • Syncretic politics
  • Political paradox
  • Multiple prophets

21
Characteristics of Liberation Governments
  • The translation of very high levels of legitimacy
    to efficiency only comes with pain and time.
  • A very strong sense of justification build into
    the dominant ideology.
  • Liberation culture contagious - spreads easily
    into crime, opportunism and entitlement.
  • BUT
  • Liberation governments can be efficient. (if
    disciplined).
  • Liberation governments can be self correcting.
  • Create opportunities to change things.
  • Can resolve conflicts of the past.

22
Three revolutions and...
23
Five phases
24
..and three fundamental dilemmas
25
Fighting for the soul of the ANC
26
Fighting for the soul of the ANC
27
Fighting for the soul of the ANC
28
Socio-economic Trends
  • Racial divide still exists, but race relations
    are improving
  • The existence of a poverty trap
  • Low economic activity and entrepreneurship,
    especially among communities in rural areas
  • Massive migration to areas with higher economic
    potential
  • Mortality statistics point to the devastating
    effect of HIV and AIDS

29
Socio-economic Trends
  • High crime levels and social conditions are
    concerning
  • The basic family unit is under pressure
  • People have a high socio-political awareness
  • Religion still a powerful social force and
  • Value system reflect a tension between market
    driven policies and developmental needs.

30
Idealised outcomes
High
High
Liberalised autocracy
Democracy
Economic developments
Limited democracy
Autocracy
Low
Low
Political developments
31
Cry the Beloved Country
Scenario plot This scenario embodies the
political drive towards social delivery at all
costs, bringing about not only economic collapse,
but also political instability. Primary
Conditions 1. Populist vision 2. Low to
negative economic growth 3. Low social
satisfaction 4. Unstable democracy - autocratic
tendencies
Economic developments
Political developments
With acknowledgement to Alan Paton, 1948,
Penguin
32
Pretoria will provide
Scenario plot This scenario embodies the drive
towards social delivery on a technocratic and
strong economic basis at the cost of political
development. This scenario emerges when a
general disillusionment with politics
develops. Primary Conditions 1. Strong-handed
vision 2. Moderate to high economic growth 3.
Social delivery takes place 4. Political
centralisation and control increase
Economic developments
Political developments
With acknowledgement to Clem Sunter, 1993,
Pretoria will provide and other myths.
Tafelberg Cape Town
33
Long walk to Freedom
Scenario plot This scenario is the muddling
through approach. There is no clear blueprint nor
a vision for development. Political
bureaucratic muddling through limits economic
performance as well as social delivery. Primary
Conditions 1. Muddling through vision 2.
moderate economic growth 3. Social delivery at
low levels 4. Democracy remains unconsolidated
and little nation- building success
Economic developments
Political developments
With acknowledgement to Nelson Mandela, 1994,
Macdonald Purnell
34
Ubuntu
Scenario plot This scenario is coming together
of a political and economic vision that results
not only in satisfactory social delivery, but
also succeeds in national integration and
nation-building. Primary Conditions 1. Growth
delivery vision 2. High economic growth 3.
Social delivery at high levels, transformation
successful 4. Consolidated and stable democracy
Economic developments
Political developments
With acknowledgement to Lovemore Mbigi Jenny
Maree, Ubuntu. The spirit of African
Transformation Management.
35
The scenario matrix
36
Africa
37
African failure can be explainedand controlled
  • A higher level of risk for investors in Africa
    than in other continents, especially policy risks
  • Higher transaction cost which renders Africa
    uncompetitive
  • A profound lack of capital (70 of Sub-Sahara
    Africas private wealth - land excluded - is kept
    off shore)
  • Dysfunctional governments (with a low level of
    political rights the main source of dysfunction

Source Paul Collier Jan Willem Gunning, 1998
38
African failure can be explainedand controlled
Control mechanisms are policies and structures
  • A higher level of risk
  • Higher transaction cost
  • A profound lack of capital
  • Dysfunctional governments

Source Paul Collier Jan Willem Gunning, 1998
39
Challenges to the African Renaissance
40
Global trends
41
A more democratic world?
Democratic regimes on the rise as
authoritarianism declines
42
11 September 2001The day when the New World
Order was transformed into a Warm Peace
43
The global world
  • 11/9/89 and 8/9/95
  • Multi-national corporations
  • Changing global demographics
  • End of the Cold War
  • Congruence of IT, entertainment and finance
  • Changing finance environment
  • 9/11
  • Volatility
  • Paradigm shifts
  • Discontinuity
  • Uncertainty
  • Complexity
  • Rapid obsolescence

Thomas Friedman, 2006, The World is Flat
44
The global world
  • Simultaneous widening and deepening of economic
    and security blocs.
  • Ideological positions are shrinking.
  • Internationalization of national politics.
  • Shrinking national sovereignty.
  • Transparent national borders.
  • Greater risks for populations (Cultural diversity)

45
Understanding Bush
46
Conclusion
47
Force field analysis
Scenarios
1994 1999 2004 2007 2009 2010
Current reality
48
General Conclusion
  • South Africa reflects a large number of
    polarities, but has managed to prevent them from
    destructing the state or the process of
    nation-building.
  • South Africa still at odds with itself and have
    not yet resolved its domestic issues such as
    race, language, symbols, names and land
    (property).
  • All countries going through extended transitions
    experience social ills such as crime and
    corruption.
  • All Advanced Developing Countries share skewed
    economic development with pockets of immense
    wealth and pockets incredible poverty.
  • South Africa challenged by health issues (HIV and
    AIDS), education issues and housing needs and
    land reform issues.

49
General Conclusion
  • Political stability threatened by
  • ANC internal power struggle.
  • Poor service delivery, especially viewed against
    political expectations.
  • Good laws, poor implementation.
  • Crime and the general image of the criminal
    justice system.
  • BUT, internationalisation (globalisation) of
    South Africa (as African Hub) i.t.o. of
    diplomacy, military assistance, political
    intervention and development aid, a
    counter-balance for political instability.
  • The transitional pendulum has reached an apex and
    events such as ASGISA, Soccer 2010 will force the
    pendulum back to middle ground.

50
Implications for the Army
  • There are no conventional threats (Land, sea or
    air) to South Africa in the short, medium or
    longer terms.
  • South Africa has become the military and
    strategic bridge-head to Africa.
  • The projection of a military and political
    posture would be through military aid and
    interventions in Africa.
  • There are however huge socio-economic challenges
    that will involve the Army.

51
Implications for the Army
  • The increasing human security challenges are
  • Gearing for more peace-keeping roles.
  • Gearing for refugee-related issues.
  • Gearing for anti-crime interventions.
  • Gearing for natural disasters on an
    sub-continental scale.
  • Training of a new breed of soldier The
    soldier-diplomat and the soldier-facilitator with
    all the essential military skills, but also
    equipped with a facilitators toolbox.
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