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Understanding the U'S' Strategic Interests in Expanding Renewable Energy Systems Worldwide

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Title: Understanding the U'S' Strategic Interests in Expanding Renewable Energy Systems Worldwide


1
Understanding the U.S. Strategic Interests in
Expanding RenewableEnergy Systems
Worldwide Renewable Energy in a Global
Context A Framework for Thought A Work in Progress
Third Energy Analysis ForumJune 11 and 12,
2003 Roger Taylor NREL
2
Global Costs and Benefits of Increased Use of
Renewables
  • Topic A Market Implications
  • Topic B Environmental Implications
  • Topic C Energy Security Implications
  • Topic D International Development
    Implications

3
International Renewable Energy Playing Field
Definitions
Energy Economy
Market
Both supply demand gt Energy Economy
Environment
Development
Natural capital (extractive, renewable) as well
as pollution
Economic development Non-OECD, or Gap countries
Security
Global, Regional and Local Including energy
(transport, water, food) Including natural
disasters (hurricanes, drought) Including man
made disasters (war)
4
Corporations
Energy Economy
Environment
Development
Governments
Security
5
Corporations
Energy Economy
Human Societal Responsibility
Environment
Development
Governments
Security
6
(No Transcript)
7
Corporations
Supply
Demand
Energy Economy
Governments
Human Social Responsibility
Environment
Development
Security
8
Corporations
Supply
Demand
Energy Economy
Governments
Human Social Responsibility
Environment
Development
Security
9
Demand
10
Economic development is tightly correlated with
energy consumption
GJ/capita
Effect of Geography
GDP(K)/capita
Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities
Scenarios to 2050, Shell International 2001
11
Modern energy services require increased incomes
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
12
People want to live longer, and generally are.
National Geographic, 1998
13
Large families in the developing world - part of
the challenge
National Geographic, 1998
14
Urbanization
National Geographic, 2002
15
Over 90 of the population growth will be in
urban areas.
16
But much of it will look like this.
17
Managing population growth will be one of the
major issues if we are to manage energy growth
National Geographic, 1998
18
Many developing countries have a special
demographic issue
National Geographic, 1998
19
Supply
Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities
Scenarios to 2050, Shell International 2001
20
Regional Energy Production Consumption
National Geographic, July 2002
21
Where are the Renewables?
22
Costs of Electricity with and without External
Costs
Worldwatch State of the World 2003
23
Supply
Demand
Corporations
Energy Economy
Governments
Products Services
Human Social Responsibility
Environment
Development
Security
24
Some Supply Questions?
  • What are the limits to RE supply expansion?
  • From a manufacturing scale-up perspective.
  • From a project development implementation
    perspective.
  • From a grid connection and system stability
    perspective.
  • Role of H2 as a storage gaseous fuel
    alternative
  • If renewables are to play a major role, what are
    the most effective policies to support large
    commercial scale-up?
  • Locally.
  • Nationally.
  • Internationally.

25
Some Demand Questions?
  • What does the future population curve look like?
  • Is it possible to stabilize populations in rural
    areas through economic development?
  • What are the best ways to manage demand growth in
    urban areas?
  • What are the limits to energy efficiency?
  • Building codes and standards?
  • How to effectively deal with the inevitable
    peri-urban slums?

26
Corporations
Energy Economy
Governments
Human Social Responsibility
Environment
Development
Security
  • Supply Risks
  • Resource Limitations
  • Transportation

Price Risks
Conflict Natural Disasters
27
Fossil fuel price history and future?
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
28
Resource Depletion
Scientific American, March 1998
29
Gas resource and transport issues
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
30
Gas resource and transport issues
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
31
The Pentagons New Map THOMAS P.M. BARNETT, U.S.
NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
Show me where globalization is thick with
network connectivity, financial transactions,
liberal media flows, and collective security, and
I will show you regions featuring stable
governments, rising standards of living, and more
deaths by suicide than murder.  These parts of
the world I call the Functioning Core, or Core. 
But show me where globalization is thinning or
just plain absent, and I will show you regions
plagued by politically repressive regimes,
widespread poverty and disease, routine mass
murder, andmost importantthe chronic conflicts
that incubate the next generation of global
terrorists.  These parts of the world I call the
Non-Integrating Gap, or Gap.
Esquire, March 2003
32
If we map out U.S. military responses since the
end of the cold war we have basically mapped
the Non-Integrating Gap
Esquire, March 2003 MAPS BY WILLIAM MCNULTY
33
The premise is that peace and security come
through globalization.
What is the role of renewables in supporting
economic development and energy security?
Esquire, March 2003 MAPS BY WILLIAM MCNULTY
34
Modular, Portable Systems for Disaster Relief
Floods, Hurricanes, Earthquakes Communications,
Medical services, Clean water
35
Renewables for Water and Sanitation in Refugee
Relief
36
Renewables Security?
Not considered
37
Domestic energy security requires global energy
security. Global and regional supply lines are
susceptible to disruption.
What are some of the Energy Security Questions?
  • How can renewables deployment increase national
    and regional energy self-reliance?
  • In electricity, in fuels
  • In urban cities, in rural areas
  • Oil and gas supply is a major focus of US foreign
    policy. How can renewable energy become a
    foreign policy tool?
  • Water supply in famine stricken areas.
  • Stockpiled, portable, emergency power, water,
    communications, health systems in post-conflict
    reconstruction.
  • Education, water health centers in rural areas
    in stable, but underdeveloped regions.
  • Power and heat for rural economic development.

38
Corporations
Energy Economy
Governments
Human Social Responsibility
Environment
Development
Security
39
Energy Impacts on the Environment
  • Global Impacts
  • Water/Energy Nexus
  • Agriculture/Energy Nexus
  • CFC Emissions, Ozone Hole
  • GHG Emissions, Global Warming
  • Local Impacts
  • Air Quality
  • Water Quality
  • Waste Disposal

40
Science is teaching us more about the worlds
history, On the prehistoric time scale.
National Geographic, May 1998
41
And the modern time scale.
42
Projections on the future
Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities
Scenarios to 2050, Shell International 2001
43
(No Transcript)
44
?
550
What does the response curve look like for this
impulse into the global energy system?
45
Global warming may have huge food security
implications
National Geographic
46
CFC (air conditioning propellants) release has
had an impact.
47
Local air pollution is a serious health problem
in many cities
48
Some Questions
What are the local, national, international
policies that can accelerate renewable-based fuel
substitution? Carbon monetization? Education
awareness? Industry assistance? Fuel taxation?
49
Corporations
Energy Economy
Governments
Human Social Responsibility
Environment
Development
Security
50
Poverty Reduction (Economic Development)
Population Growth Requires Electricity Growth
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
51
Population growth is mostly in developing
countries
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
52
With huge development challenges
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
53
Global Energy Poverty
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
54
The correlation between poverty and electricity
access
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
55
Clean water requires access to electricity
National Geographic, September 2002
56
Where are the Renewables?
Schools
Home Systems
Rural Telephony
Village Minigrids
Water Pumping
Health Clinics
Microenterprise Development
Water Purification
57
What are some of the Development Questions?
What is required to make a significant
difference? Within the international development
community. At the project level. How can
renewables be a more effective development
tool? How do we effectively target and implement
comprehensive energy-economic development
efforts?
58
Supply
Demand
Corporations
Energy Economy
Governments
???
Supply Development
Human Social Responsibility
Environment
Development
Democracy Good governance Humanitarian
assistance Economic development Energy?
Environmental Protection
Security
US AID
Protection of Supplies
US Military
59
IEA has developed a basic World Energy Model
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
60
Residential Service Sector
Transport
Oil Supply
Power Generation
World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy
Agency
But nothing for renewable energy
61
We need
A Comprehensive, Socio-Techno-Economic
Model For Global Energy Expansion Planning
Yearly simulation (100 years) Country-based Life-c
ycle costing principles Least Cost (to society,
to individual countries) Tracks fossil fuel price
reserves RE Manufacturing scaleup And other
stuff
That connects the commercial, social, and
security issues in a way that helps us understand
and communicate the challenges facing the
current energy-economic framework.
62
So -
Think about the big picture
  • What are the areas where we know there are
    analytic linkages work underway? (e.g. climate
    energy)
  • Where could these models be extended to pick up
    other dimensions?
  • What are the areas and linkages where we dont
    understand whats going on, and no analytic work
    is underway? (e.g. security rural economic
    development energy water)
  • How can we get our arms around these issues?

What form of analytic approach makes sense to
tackle this integrated, interdisciplinary,
non-linear, mixed quantitative/qualitative
problem?
63
Whats your vision of the next 200 years?
And why?
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