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Climate Change: The Headline News

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Title: Climate Change: The Headline News


1
Climate Change The Headline News
  • Frances Drake
  • School of Geography
  • University of Leeds

2
Overview of Talk
  • Introducing the global climate system
  • Predicted changes
  • Global
  • Regional
  • Surprises in the greenhouse

3
Why is the Climate Changing?
4
Climate System
5
Feedback in Climate Changehttp//www.globalchange
.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/samson/f
eedback_mechanisms/
6
Climate Sensitivity
  • The ratio of the global mean surface air
    temperature response to the global mean radiative
    forcing (Harvey, 2000).
  •  ?T?RF
  •  T annual mean surface air temperature
  • RF radiative forcing
  • ? climate sensitivity parameter

7
Surface Observations
8
Climate Models
9
Yorkshire and Humberside
10
Predicted Temperature Changes
11
Predicted Winter Precipitation Changes
12
Predicted Summer Precipitation Changes
13
Model Experiments
Patterns of change in summer-average
precipitation as simulated by nine global climate
models for the 2080s (2071-2100) for the same
(A2) emissions scenario
14
Ensemble Forecasting Countering the
Uncertainties
  • Natural Variability
  • Initial conditions
  • Changes in Boundary Conditions (changes in energy
    balance)
  • Emission scenarios
  • Scientific Understanding (Modelling Uncertainty)
  • Perturbed-physics

15
Climate Surprises
16
Global Dimming
17
Summary
  • Climate predictions rely on a knowledge of the
    climate sensitivity
  • This results in some uncertainty associated with
    the predictions
  • Whilst planning for the predicted we cannot rule
    out surprises in the greenhouse
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