Title: Design Optimization and Financial Analysis of Offshore Wind Energy Under Uncertainty and in Deregula
1Design Optimization and Financial Analysis of
Offshore Wind EnergyUnder Uncertainty and in
Deregulated Power Markets
- Deniz Ozkan, Researcher
- Michael R. Duffey, Assoc. Prof.
- Department of Engineering Management and Systems
EngineeringSchool of Engineering and Applied
ScienceThe George Washington University
2Offshore Wind?
- Wall Street Journal
- 5/22/2006
- Article Tilting at Windmills by
William Koch
3Offshore Wind Farm
Prinses Amaliawindpark June 2008 Wind
turbines 60 Vestas V80 / 2 MW Capacity 120
MW Water depth 19 - 24 meters Distance from
shore 23 kilometers Surface area 14 km² Hub
height 59 meters Rotor diameter 80
meters Annual power production 435
GWh CO2-emissions avoidance 225.000 tons/year
Enough to power 125.000 households
Complex System
High COE
Inadequate, Traditional LCC
Relatively New Technology
Various, Interrelated Uncertain Parameters
Prinses Amaliawindpark http//www.q7wind.nl/en/ni
euws_fotos.asp
4The claims of offshore advocates
Higher wind speeds Less turbulence Less
opposition (NIMBY) More space Close to demand
5Physical
Technical
Environmental
SITE SPECIFIC
Economical
Social
Political
6Offshore Wind Plants
7Offshore Wind Energy Models, Projects, Tools
- NASA MOD
- Sunderland Model University of Sunderland
- OPTI-OWECS TUDelft
- WINDPACT NREL, DOE
- OWECOP ECN
- DOWEC NEG Micon, LM Glasfiber, ACZ, ECN
- OWFLO UMASS, GE, DOE
- RETSCREEN Energy Diversification Research
Laboratory, Canada - Others
8OFfshore Wind Integrated Cost
- OFWIC
- Integrated
- Uncertainty
- Cost of Electricity
- Environment
- Financing
- Scheduling
- Power Network
- Risk Analysis
- Optimization
9OFWIC Modules
- Input
- Calculation
- Simulation
- Optimization
- Output
10Wind Module
- Mean wind speed at reference height
- Weibull shape parameter (k)
- Weibull scale parameter c
- Reference height
- Reference distance to shore
- Reference Roughness length z0
- Surface drag coefficient CD,10
- Friction velocity V
- Roughness length z
- Wind shear (?)
- Wind Speed at Hub Height
- Turbulence intensity
- Air density
- Air pressure
- Air temperature at Hub Height
- Air temperature
- Reference height (for temperature)
The amount of energy passing through
cross-section A per unit time is power P (Watts
kgm2/s3)
11Wave Module
12Turbine Module
13Turbine Module
14OWEC Optimization
- Optimum dimensioning of the blade chord and blade
twists to maximize power coefficient Schmitz
Theory - Calculate forces acting on the blades and the
power output at different wind speeds by using
Blade Element Momentum Theory - Apparent wind angle
- Angle of attack at different tip speed ratios
- Circumferential force of the blade
- Thrust force of the rotor
- Driving torque of the rotor
- Power of the rotor
- Fixed speed stall regulated, fixed speed full
span variable pitch and variable speed full span
variable pitch - Based on Sunderland Model, weight and cost
calculation of turbine components - Tower Optimization
- Foundation Optimization
15BOS Module
16OM Module
EE Module
17Energy Output
Annual Energy Output
Turbine Power Curve
Theoretical Wind Power
Wind Speed
18(No Transcript)
19Environment Module
20Financing Module
Financing structures are adopted from report
Wind Project Financing Structures A Review
Comparative Analysis http//eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/
reports/63434.pdf
21Scheduling Module
22Power Network Module
Historical Time Series LMP, Load, WS
Forecasted Time Series LMP, Load, WS
Forecast Errors LMP, Load, WS
ANN
Forecasted WS Generation
Forecasted Price
Unit Characteristics
PBUC
Bidding
Actual Market Price
Market Settling
Actual Generation
Revenue Analysis Penalty or Excess
23Power Network Module
- Number of Units
- Unit Characteristics
- Max/Min Power, Marginal Cost Curve, Min On/
OFF times, Ramp Up/Down Rates, Start Up Energy
Need, Quick Start Capacity, Fuel Type, Fuel
Price, Emission Factor. - System Characteristics
- Max/Min Energy, Spinning / Nonspinning
Reserves, Fuel type constraint, Emission
constraint - LMPs (Energy, Spinning Non Spinning Reserves)
- Loads
- Power Network model is based on Shahidehpour et
al 2002.
24Power Network Module
25Simulation - Optimization
26Cape Wind
Cape Wind Proposed in 2001 Wind turbines 130
GE / 3.6 MW Installed Capacity 468 MW Water
depth 10 meters Distance from shore 13
kilometers Surface area 83 km² Hub height
75 meters Rotor diameter 104 meters Annual
power production 1491 GWh GHG-emissions
avoidance 734.000 tons/year Enough to
power 231.000 households
27Cape Wind
28Cape Wind
29Cape Wind
30Cape Wind
COE / Base
COE / Base-PTC
COE / Base-REC
COE / Base-PTC-REC
31Cape Wind
COE / Back
COE / Back-REC
COE / Back-Schedule
COE / Back-Schedule-REC
32Questions
http//www.hornsrev.dk/Engelsk/default_ie.htm
33Back Leveraged
34Cash PTC Leveraged
35Cash Leveraged
36Corporate
37Institutional Investor Flip
38Pay-As-You-Go
39Strategic Investor Flip