Design Optimization and Financial Analysis of Offshore Wind Energy Under Uncertainty and in Deregula - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Design Optimization and Financial Analysis of Offshore Wind Energy Under Uncertainty and in Deregula

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Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering. School of Engineering and Applied Science. The George Washington University. Wall Street Journal ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Design Optimization and Financial Analysis of Offshore Wind Energy Under Uncertainty and in Deregula


1
Design Optimization and Financial Analysis of
Offshore Wind EnergyUnder Uncertainty and in
Deregulated Power Markets
  • Deniz Ozkan, Researcher
  • Michael R. Duffey, Assoc. Prof.
  • Department of Engineering Management and Systems
    EngineeringSchool of Engineering and Applied
    ScienceThe George Washington University

2
Offshore Wind?
  • Wall Street Journal
  • 5/22/2006
  • Article Tilting at Windmills by
    William Koch

3
Offshore Wind Farm
Prinses Amaliawindpark June 2008 Wind
turbines 60 Vestas V80 / 2 MW Capacity 120
MW Water depth 19 - 24 meters Distance from
shore 23 kilometers Surface area 14 km² Hub
height 59 meters Rotor diameter 80
meters Annual power production 435
GWh CO2-emissions avoidance 225.000 tons/year
Enough to power 125.000 households
Complex System
High COE
Inadequate, Traditional LCC
Relatively New Technology
Various, Interrelated Uncertain Parameters
Prinses Amaliawindpark http//www.q7wind.nl/en/ni
euws_fotos.asp
4
The claims of offshore advocates
Higher wind speeds Less turbulence Less
opposition (NIMBY) More space Close to demand
5
Physical
Technical
Environmental
SITE SPECIFIC
Economical
Social
Political
6
Offshore Wind Plants
7
Offshore Wind Energy Models, Projects, Tools
  • NASA MOD
  • Sunderland Model University of Sunderland
  • OPTI-OWECS TUDelft
  • WINDPACT NREL, DOE
  • OWECOP ECN
  • DOWEC NEG Micon, LM Glasfiber, ACZ, ECN
  • OWFLO UMASS, GE, DOE
  • RETSCREEN Energy Diversification Research
    Laboratory, Canada
  • Others

8
OFfshore Wind Integrated Cost
  • OFWIC
  • Integrated
  • Uncertainty
  • Cost of Electricity
  • Environment
  • Financing
  • Scheduling
  • Power Network
  • Risk Analysis
  • Optimization

9
OFWIC Modules
  • Input
  • Calculation
  • Simulation
  • Optimization
  • Output

10
Wind Module
  • Mean wind speed at reference height
  • Weibull shape parameter (k)
  • Weibull scale parameter c
  • Reference height
  • Reference distance to shore
  • Reference Roughness length z0
  • Surface drag coefficient CD,10
  • Friction velocity V
  • Roughness length z
  • Wind shear (?)
  • Wind Speed at Hub Height
  • Turbulence intensity
  • Air density
  • Air pressure
  • Air temperature at Hub Height
  • Air temperature
  • Reference height (for temperature)

The amount of energy passing through
cross-section A per unit time is power P (Watts
kgm2/s3)
11
Wave Module
12
Turbine Module
13
Turbine Module
14
OWEC Optimization
  • Optimum dimensioning of the blade chord and blade
    twists to maximize power coefficient Schmitz
    Theory
  • Calculate forces acting on the blades and the
    power output at different wind speeds by using
    Blade Element Momentum Theory
  • Apparent wind angle
  • Angle of attack at different tip speed ratios
  • Circumferential force of the blade
  • Thrust force of the rotor
  • Driving torque of the rotor
  • Power of the rotor
  • Fixed speed stall regulated, fixed speed full
    span variable pitch and variable speed full span
    variable pitch
  • Based on Sunderland Model, weight and cost
    calculation of turbine components
  • Tower Optimization
  • Foundation Optimization

15
BOS Module
16
OM Module
EE Module
17
Energy Output
Annual Energy Output
Turbine Power Curve
Theoretical Wind Power
Wind Speed
18
(No Transcript)
19
Environment Module
20
Financing Module
Financing structures are adopted from report
Wind Project Financing Structures A Review
Comparative Analysis http//eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/
reports/63434.pdf
21
Scheduling Module
22
Power Network Module
Historical Time Series LMP, Load, WS
Forecasted Time Series LMP, Load, WS
Forecast Errors LMP, Load, WS
ANN
Forecasted WS Generation
Forecasted Price
Unit Characteristics
PBUC
Bidding
Actual Market Price
Market Settling
Actual Generation
Revenue Analysis Penalty or Excess
23
Power Network Module
  • Number of Units
  • Unit Characteristics
  • Max/Min Power, Marginal Cost Curve, Min On/
    OFF times, Ramp Up/Down Rates, Start Up Energy
    Need, Quick Start Capacity, Fuel Type, Fuel
    Price, Emission Factor.
  • System Characteristics
  • Max/Min Energy, Spinning / Nonspinning
    Reserves, Fuel type constraint, Emission
    constraint
  • LMPs (Energy, Spinning Non Spinning Reserves)
  • Loads
  • Power Network model is based on Shahidehpour et
    al 2002.

24
Power Network Module
25
Simulation - Optimization
26
Cape Wind
Cape Wind Proposed in 2001 Wind turbines 130
GE / 3.6 MW Installed Capacity 468 MW Water
depth 10 meters Distance from shore 13
kilometers Surface area 83 km² Hub height
75 meters Rotor diameter 104 meters Annual
power production 1491 GWh GHG-emissions
avoidance 734.000 tons/year Enough to
power 231.000 households
27
Cape Wind
28
Cape Wind
29
Cape Wind
30
Cape Wind
COE / Base
COE / Base-PTC
COE / Base-REC
COE / Base-PTC-REC
31
Cape Wind
COE / Back
COE / Back-REC
COE / Back-Schedule
COE / Back-Schedule-REC
32
Questions
http//www.hornsrev.dk/Engelsk/default_ie.htm
33
Back Leveraged
34
Cash PTC Leveraged
35
Cash Leveraged
36
Corporate
37
Institutional Investor Flip
38
Pay-As-You-Go
39
Strategic Investor Flip
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