Mark Shafer

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Update on Activities of the National Integrated
Drought Information System (NIDIS)
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• Mark Shafer
• Director of Climate Services
• Oklahoma Climatological Survey
• Norman, Oklahoma

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NIDIS VISION and GOALS
A dynamic and accessible drought information
system that provides users with the ability to
determine the potential impacts of drought and
the associated risks they bring, and the decision
support tools needed to better prepare for and
mitigate the effects of drought. Public Law
109-430 (Signed by the President December 2006)

(www.drought.gov)
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NIDIS Objectives
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• Creating a drought early warning information
  system
• Coordinating national drought monitoring and
  forecasting systems
• Providing an interactive drought information
  clearinghouse and delivery system for products
  and servicesincluding an internet portal and
  standardized products (databases, forecasts,
  Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)
• Designing mechanisms for improving and
  incorporating information to support coordinated
  preparedness and planning

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The National Integrated Drought Information
SystemManaging Drought as Climate Changes
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• The combination of the inherent uncertainty of
  natural variability, plus projections for a
  warmer climate in the 21st century, make early
  warning and adaptation more important than ever
• NIDIS offers a framework for integration of
  vulnerability and hazard information for planners
  and decision makers

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Implementation Elements

• 1. NIDIS Office
• 2. U.S. Drought Portal
• 3. Climate Test Beds
• Integrating data and forecasts
• 4. Coping with Drought
• Integrated Impacts and Applications Research,
  Communication
• 5. NIDIS Early Warning Information System
  Development
• Pilot Design and Implementation

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Governance Structure
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NIDIS Executive Council Co-chairs Director,
NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee)
Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or
designee)
NIDIS Program Implementation Team
(NPIT) Working-Level Partner Representatives Coord
inate and develop evaluation criteria for all
NIDIS activities including pilot project
selection Chair NPO Director

• NIDIS Program Office
• ( Director)
• Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA
• and Interagency drought-related activities
• Develop a national presence for NIDIS
• (e.g. formal links to National Governors Assn)
• Participate in GEOSS / IEOS

NIDIS Technical Working Groups Federal, Regional,
State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads Embedded in
national and regional, and local NIDIS
Activities Develop pilot implementation and
transferability criteria Co-Chairs selected by
NPIT
Public Awareness And Education
U.S. Drought Portal
Interdisciplinary Research and Applications
Engaging Preparedness Communities
Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting
Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and
Implementation
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Western Governors Association NOAA USGS Dept.
of Interior (BoR) U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES) NASA Indigenous
Waters Network Regional Climate Centers National
Drought Mitigation Center Association of State
Climatologists Cornell University New Mexico
State University Rutgers University South Dakota
State University University of Oklahoma University
of South Carolina University of Washington The
Weather Channel
PL109-430
www.drought.gov
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NIDIS Pgm Implementation Team affiliations
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Governance Structure
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NIDIS Executive Council Co-chairs Director,
NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee)
Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or
designee)
NIDIS Program Implementation Team
(NPIT) Working-Level Partner Representatives Coord
inate and develop evaluation criteria for all
NIDIS activities including pilot project
selection Chair NPO Director

• NIDIS Program Office
• ( Director)
• Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA
• and Interagency drought-related activities
• Develop a national presence for NIDIS
• (e.g. formal links to National Governors Assn)
• Participate in GEOSS / IEOS

NIDIS Technical Working Groups Federal, Regional,
State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads Embedded in
national and regional, and local NIDIS
Activities Develop pilot implementation and
transferability criteria Co-Chairs selected by
NPIT
Public Awareness And Education
U.S. Drought Portal
Interdisciplinary Research and Applications
Engaging Preparedness Communities
Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting
Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and
Implementation
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U.S. Drought Portalwww.drought.gov

• Assimilate and quality control data, models, risk
  information, and impacts
• Drought Monitor, Impact Reporter, Outlook
• Information tailored for various user communities
• National in scope, local in detail
• State-level information links
• Learn from the pilots for national prototypes
• New version released in January 2009

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Implementation at the National Level U.S. Drought
Portal
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Implementation at the National Level U.S. Drought
Portal New Map Viewer
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U.S. Drought Portal New Information
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Customizable USDM statistics for various spatial
and time scales.

Taking advantage of existing services including
Google Gadgets.
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Interdisciplinary Research and Applications

• Foster sustained interactions between research
  community and beneficiaries
• Linking federal, state drought-relevant research
  programs
• Compile inventory of existing drought research
• Assess knowledge gaps
• Sector and regional stakeholder workshops to
  provide guidance for research priorities
• Link biophysical measures with economic, ecologic
  and social context
• Develop consistent methodologies for assessing
  drought impacts
• Develop sequential critical indicators for
  planning and operations
• Help characterize uncertainties using if-then
  scenarios

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Implementation at the National Level Interdiscipli
nary Research and Applications
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• NIDIS Knowledge and Service Assessment Workshops
• Remote Sensing Contributions to Drought
  Monitoring, February 6-7, 2008, Boulder
• NOAA, USGS, NASA, USDA, universities, state
  climatologists, state-local drought officials
• Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado River
  Stream Flow, Sept 2007 La Jolla/November 2008
  Las Vegas/February 2009 Seattle
• NOAA, USGS, CIG, WWA, etc
• National Status of Drought Early Warning
  Systems, June 17-19, 2008, Kansas City
• NOAA, USGS, USAID, USDA, USACE, NASA, tribes,
  universities, state government, water managers

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Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting

• Multiple federal and state observing systems
• NOAA/NWS, USDA, USGS, Corps of Engineers, Bureau
  of Reclamation
• In situ and remote sensing
• Networks developed largely independently
• New datasets critical to improved forecasting
• Soil moisture, sea surface temperatures
• Ensemble drought prediction, downscaling
• Develop high resolution observational and
  forecast data bases
• Real-time observations
• Data assimilation products
• Model simulations and forecasts
• Prototype climate test beds

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Implementation at the National Level Integrated
Monitoring and Forecasting
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• Presentation to the U.S. Drought Monitor Forum,
  Portland OR, October 2007
• Presentation to the Interstate Council on Water
  Policy (ICWP), New Orleans LA, October 2007
• Presentation to the Advisory Committee on Water
  Information (ACWI), Subcommittee on Hydrology,
  Washington DC, April 2008
• Presentation to the North American Drought
  Monitor Forum, Ottawa, Ontario, October 2008
• Workshop on Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature
  Observations and Applications (USCRN NIDIS),
  Oak Ridge TN, March 3-5, 2009

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Public Awareness and Education

• Build upon existing grassroots education and
  awareness programs
• Example Ag in the Classroom, RISA, agricultural
  extension
• Develop a central clearinghouse for drought
  materials information
• Assist with local, state regional programs
• Coordinate with national organizations
• Formal and informal education
• Convey differences in vulnerabilities as well as
  risk
• Historic and analogue perspectives
• Develop interdisciplinary education teams

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Implementation at the National Level Public
Awareness and Education
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• Testimony before House Committee on Science
  Technology, Washington DC, April, 2008
• Drought content for USDA Agriculture in the
  Classroom program
• Formal NIDIS liaison to Western States Water
  Council
• Content on Drought Portal

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Implementation at the National Level Public
Awareness and Education
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U.S. Drought Portal Education

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Engaging Preparedness Communities (NIDIS Pilots)

• Facilitate development of a drought coordinator
  network
• Each state designate and fund a Drought
  Coordinator as a communication focal point
• Coordinate collaborative development of critical
  indicators and triggers
• Help secure funding, develop evaluation criteria,
  and conduct post-drought assessments
• Drought exercises or drought simulations for risk
  scenarios and generation of alternative options
• Facilitate the improvement of organizational
  networks

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NIDIS Early Warning Systems Pilots Selected by
Drought-type and analysis units
Southeast
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NIDIS PilotsUpper Colorado River Basin

• Water management issues in a region with growing
  demand
• Arid region with long-term climate change threats
• Multi-year droughts recent occurrences (ongoing)
• First Pilot, launched in 2008

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NIDIS PilotsSoutheast U.S.
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• Institutional issues governing water management
  across state boundaries
• Southeast US Drought Workshop (Peachtree City,
  GA, April 2008)
• Overview of Federal Drought Products
• Overview of State Plans and Triggers What Works
  What is Needed
• Coastal and Estuarine Issues and Drought
• Current Long Range Forecast from NOAA
• Status Fall 2009 scoping workshop

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NIDIS PilotsOklahoma / Missouri

• Transition area between semi-arid (west) to
  abundant precipitation (east)
• Rain-fed agriculture, aquifers, small reservoirs
• Technology transfer issues
• Surveys being conducted of drought management
  communication
• How do they manage drought?
• What are their sources of information?
• How do they convey that information
• Status Planning

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NIDIS PilotsMontana / Northern Plains

• Tourism and Recreation
• Farming and Ranching in a semi-arid area
• Dependent upon rainfall, snowfall
• Short-term rapid-onset drought
• Trans-boundary issues (Canada)
• Status Pending

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NIDIS PilotsChesapeake Bay Area

• Densely-populated urban environment
• Multiple environmental stressors
• Low water storage capacity
• Water quality issues
• Focus on instream flows
• Status Pending

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Implementation at the National Level Engaging
Preparedness Communities - Pilots
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• Federal Planning Meeting - NIDIS Pilot for the
  Colorado River Basin, Salt Lake City UT, May 2008
  (NOAA NWS CRBRFC CPC, WR, ESRL USBR USACE
  USGS GCMRC WY WSC NPS USFS)
• Three categories of drought information users,
  two scales of analysis
• Large reservoir operations and triggers, full
  basin scale (Reclamation, USGS, NPS, etc)
• Water supply managers with stake in trans-basin
  diversions, at sub-basin scale Colorado River
  above Kremmling CO (Colorado-Big Thompson
  Project, Northern Colorado Water Conservancy
  District, Colorado River Conservation District,
  Denver Water, etc)
• Ecosystem recreational resource managers, at
  sub-basin scale - Colorado River above Kremmling
  CO (BLM, Grand County, NPS, USFS, etc)

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Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
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• Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River
  Basin NIDIS Pilot, Boulder CO, October 2008
• Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR)
• Colorado State Climatologist
• Colorado River Water Conservation District
  (CRWCD)
• Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB)
• CU Western Water Assessment, CIRES, and CADSWES
• Denver Water Board
• Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District
  (NCWCD)
• Wyoming State Engineer
• Wyoming State Climatologist
• Utah State Climatologist
• Desert Research Institute/WRCC

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Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
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• Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River
  Basin NIDIS Pilot, Boulder CO, October 1-2, 2008
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
• U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Natural
  Resources Conservation Service
• U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Region 2
• U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) - Eastern
  Colorado Area Office, Great Plains Region, Office
  of Policy and Programs, Research and Development
• U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Colorado Water
  Science Center, Central Region, Grand Canyon
  Monitoring and Research Center
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  (NOAA), Earth System Research Laboratory,
  National Centers for Environmental Prediction,
  National Climatic Data Center, National Weather
  Service

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Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
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• Year 1 Actions from the Scoping Workshop for the
  Upper Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot
• Build a UCRB community on the NIDIS Drought
  Portal (www.drought.gov)
• Inventory and assessment of drought indicators
  and triggers presently used in the UCRB
• Facilitate access to indicator and trigger
  observational data and information products via
  the UCRB community on the NIDIS Drought Portal
• Perform a monitoring networks gap analysis for
  the UCRB

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Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
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• Year 1 Actions from the Scoping Workshop for the
  Upper Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot (cont.)
• Perform a monitoring networks gap analysis for
  the UCRB
• Point of departure - Western States Watershed
  Study Water Data Report by Federal Agencies for
  WSWC (July 2008)
• Report authors meeting in Boulder CO, December
  2008 (NWS CRBRFC USDA NRCS State Climatologists
  for UT, WY and CO Wyoming State Engineer WRCC
  USGS WY WSC CWCB NIDIS Program Office)
• Report section proposals received, report outline
  developed February 2009
• Completion targeted for October 2009
• Design an approach for producing a UCRB Drought
  Monitor
• NOT a downscaling of the USDM, but a custom
  activity of those in the basin
• Key coordinating role for State Climatologists

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Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
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• Year 2 Actions
• Initiate Colorado Basin Drought Information
  Portal (as a subset of the U.S. Drought Portal)
• Establish network for ongoing briefings on
  impacts and projections across climate timescales
  (UCRB Drought Monitor)
• Develop decision support tools for demand
  projections and review of triggering criteria
  (Northern Water, Denver Water, Grand Valley)
• Feedback into Colorado Basin Drought Monitor
  and Portal, Early Warning System maintenance and
  transfer

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Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
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• Year 2 Actions
• Prototyping Given better data and information
  coordination, would responses have been improved
  for past events? Assess
• Value of improved information using past
  conditions
• Responses for projections / scenarios (decadal,
  climate change)
• Feedback on priorities (e.g. data gaps) to
  Executive Council

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Pilot Implementation - Upper Colorado River
Basin Interdisciplinary Research and Applications
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• Improvements to Water Supply Forecasting
• Integrate objective climate forecasts into RFC
  Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)
• Introduce time-varying potential
  evapotranspiration into ESP water supply
  forecasts
• Develop USBR operations management model that can
  make use of ESP continuous, probabilistic
  forecast to reckon chance of hitting EIS trigger
  points, instead of single value NOAA/NRCS water
  supply forecasts

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• NIDIS offers one framework for developing and
  mainstreaming information services to support
  adaptation strategies as climate varies and
  changes
• Recent Upcoming
• CA Drought information needs Feb 09
• World Water Forum March 09
• US Drought Portal Assessment May 09
• Tribal Lands June 09
• Southeast Scoping Workshop July 09

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Questions?