PERCH Air Quality Study PAQS

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PERCH Air Quality Study PAQS
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Air QualityExperience

• Karsten Baumann
• Michael Bergin
• Ann Bostrom
• Carlos Cardelino
• Bill Chameides
• Michael Chang
• C. S. Kiang
• Talat Odman
• Ted Russell
• Rodney Weber

• Southern Oxidants Study
• Fall line Air Quality Study
• Atlanta Supersite
• Texas Air Quality Study 2000
• Southern Appalachian Mountain Initiative
• Atlanta Ozone Forecasting
• Southern Center for the Integrated Study of
  Secondary Air Pollutants
• Air Resources Engineering Center

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Historically, air quality has largely been a
big city problem.

• The last round of mass designations occurred in
  1991 (primarily for O3)
• More than 90 of the affected population resided
  in 70 metro areas
• Average Size 2 million (Cincinnati)
• Median Size 1 million (Louisville)
• Largest 20 million (New York)
• Smallest 87,000 (Owensboro, KY)

Counties in which the 1998 2nd daily maximum
1-hour ozone concentration exceeds the 1-hour
average ozone NAAQS.
EPA 2000
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By 2004 however, new O3 standards will bring the
CAA to smaller cities.

• In addition to most of the original 70 metro
  areas, as many as 60 or more additional metro
  areas may be impacted (for ozone).
• Of these 60 new metro areas
• Average Size 360,000 (Madison, WI)
• Median Size 290,000 (Macon, GA)
• Largest 1.3 million (San Antonio)
• Smallest 74,000 (Victoria, TX)

Counties in which the 1998 4th daily maximum
8-hour ozone concentration exceeds the 8-hour
average ozone NAAQS.
EPA 2000
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Widespread exceedances of the PM2.5 NAAQS will
also impact many smaller cities by 2005.
EPA 2001
Monitors at which the 1999 annual average PM2.5
concentration exceeds (yellow and red) the 15
?g/m3 annual average PM2.5 NAAQS.
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PensacolaWhats the problem? Is there a
problem?
AUG. 26, 2001
NOV. 17, 2002
the American Lung Association ranked Escambia
as having the worst ground-level ozone problem in
Florida.
State environmental regulators expect that the
two-county area will be in compliance with new
federal ozone standards set to go into effect in
2004.
The Pensacola area has the highest recorded
concentrations of fine particle pollution in
Florida.
The data right now indicate Florida is pretty
clean and green as far as ozone pollution....
Escambia County ranks among the nations
leaders in toxic air pollution.
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Pensacola 8-hour O3 Concentrations (ppbv) and
the NAAQS
Naval Air Station thru 11/18/02
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Pensacola 8-hour O3 Concentrations (ppbv) and
the NAAQS
Ellyson Ind. Park thru 11/18/02
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Pensacola 8-hour O3 Concentrations (ppbv) and
the NAAQS
Warrington Elem. School thru 11/18/02
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Santa Rosa County 8-hour O3 Concentrations
(ppbv) and the NAAQS
Navarre Beach Middle School thru 11/18/02
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Pensacola PM2.5 Concentrations and the NAAQS
Federal Reference Method
Ellyson Industrial Park every 3rd day thru
6/30/02
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Pensacola PM2.5 Concentrations and the NAAQS
Continuous Monitoring
Ellyson Industrial Park thru 6/30/02
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Santa Rosa PM2.5 Concentrations and the NAAQS
Federal Reference Method
Gulf Breeze every 3rd day thru 6/30/02
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Pensacola and FL Toxic Air Emissions
2000 Toxic Release Inventory, US EPA
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US EPA, Region 4 Air Toxics Relative Risk
Screening Analysis September 27, 2002
Escambia ranks 42nd of 736 counties in Region 4
for potential adverse air toxics impacts, but is
consistent with other peer urban counties.
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Whats the problem? Is there a problem?

• It appears that Pensacola, and Escambia and Santa
  Rosa counties will comply with all state and
  federal air quality standards but just barely.
• A good plan MAINTAIN VIGILANCE!
• Continue studying source and impact
  relationships under varying conditions (Gulf
  Coast O3 Study ? West Florida O3 Study)
• Continue to reduce emissions from all sources
  (Gulf Power leading by example!)
• Integrate local and regional economic
  development, transportation, and air quality
  planning. (The Chamber can and should play a
  leading role.)
• Begin addressing PM problems NOW (PERCH can help
  here).

?
?
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Pensacola PM Source Apportionment
Sulfate
Sulfate
Wood
Wood
Diesel
Diesel
Zheng et al. 2002
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Where there is fire, there is smoke.
To what extent does prescribed burning impact
local and regional air quality?
O3
Eglin AFB
VOCs
NOx
PM
Eglin AFB is required to burn 51,000 acres /year
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Fire Ecology

• The endangered Red Cockaded Woodpecker (RCW)
  resides only in the mature long-leaf pine forests
  of the SE US.
• Most of the forests old and large enough to
  support the RCW are on federal and military
  lands.
• Long-leaf pine ecosystems have adapted to natural
  fire regimes (wildfires in 3 to 7 year cycles)
  and now require periodic burning to maintain
  health.
• Prescribed burning is a safe and effective
  alternative to natural fire regimes.

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Endangered Species Act
Clean Air Act
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Whats the problem? Is there a problem?
PERCH Mission to determine if a connection
exists between elevated levels of illness in
Northwest Florida and the levels of toxic
pollutants in the area.
Could the air be making people sick or causing
premature death?
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How does one find out if the air is making people
sick?

• Who is getting sick? Young? Old? Black? White?
  Poor? Healthy? Infirm?
• What is in the air? Indoors? Outdoors? Ambient?
  Local? Concentration? Composition?
• Where are the at-risk people? Where is the
  offending air? Local source-receptors? Transport?
• When is air quality a problem? Morning? Noon?
  Night? Short-term? Long-term? Lifetime? Formative
  years? Senior years?
• How does air quality affect health? Inhalation?
  Deposition? Consumption? Oxidation? Mutation?
  Absorption? Dose? Thresholds?

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Questions, questions, and more questions
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1) What are the risks and where should we place
our highest priorities?

• How should risk be defined?
• Which class of air pollution ozone, PM, or
  toxics poses the greatest health risk to the
  citizens of Pensacola?
• How do all the pollutants interact to compound
  risks?
• What about indoor air quality and its
  relationship to outdoor air quality?
• Short term? Long term? Reversibility?
• Who does air quality impact?

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Health Impacts

• 1.
• What are
• the risks?

Observed Exposure
Predicted Exposure (Models)
Health Picture
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2) What is known about Pensacolas air quality?

• What data has been collected? FL DEP? US EPA?
  ADEM? SEARCH? Others?
• What emissions inventories exist? GCOS? TRI? NET?
  FAQS? OTAG?
• What modeling has been completed? FL DEP? GCOS?
  DoD? FAQS? OTAG?
• How does the land/sea breeze work?

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Emission Inventories

• 2.
• What
• do we know
• about air quality?

Ambient Observations
Predicted Concen- trations (Models)
Air Quality Picture
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3) How are different pollutants related and how
are these connected to the economy, development,
politics, and other constraints / goals /
aspirations?

• What should be included? O3, PM, toxics, CO2?
• What are the connections or links between these
  compounds with air quality and human health?
• Who should be included? Pensacola, Escambia,
  Santa Rosa, FL, AL, MS, other Gulf or SE US
  sources, business and industry, environmental and
  health advocates?
• What are the timelines?
• What are the costs?

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Emission Inventories

• 3.
• How
• do we man-
• age air quality?

Economic, political, and technological constraint
s / aspirations
Predicted Concen- trations (Models)
Management Picture
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Emissions
Ambient
Models
Health
Management
The BIG Picture
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PERCH Air Quality Study Phase I

• Scope air toxics, ozone, and particulate matter.
• Identify, compile, and assess existing emissions
  and ambient air data from US EPA, FL DEP, and
  private (e.g. SEARCH).
• Review existing studies (particularly National
  Air Toxics Assessment and Gulf Coast Ozone
  Study). Any gaps?
• Complete a health impacts literature search.
• Screen for potential health risks due to realized
  and potential ambient exposures.
• Design future studies.

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Questions, comments, suggestions?

• Dr. Michael Chang chang_at_eas.gatech.edu
• Dr. Ted Russell trussell_at_ce.gatech.edu
• Dr. Ranga Rao rrao_at_uwf.edu