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Global Warming: Scientific Observations

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Title: Global Warming: Scientific Observations


1
Global WarmingScientific Observations
  • Thompson Webb III, Brown Univ.
  • With help from
  • J.T. Overpeck, Univ Arizona, IPPC
  • Jeffrey Donnelly, WHOI

2
No. 05-1120In the Supreme Court of the United
States__________COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS,
et al.,Petitioners,v.U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION AGENCY, et al.,Respondents.__________
On Writ of Certiorari to theUnited States Court
of Appealsfor the District of Columbia
Circuit__________BRIEF OF AMICI CURIAE CLIMATE
SCIENTISTSDAVID BATTISTI, WILLIAM E.
EASTERLING,CHRISTOPHER FIELD, INEZ FUNG, JAMES
E.HANSEN, JOHN HARTE, EUGENIA KALNAY,
DANIELKIRK-DAVIDOFF, PAMELA A. MATSON, JAMES
C.MCWILLIAMS, MARIO J. MOLINA, JONATHAN
T.OVERPECK, F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND,
JOELLENRUSSELL, SCOTT R. SALESKA, EDWARD
SARACHIK,JOHN M. WALLACE, AND STEVEN C. WOFSYIN
SUPPORT OF PETITIONERS__________JOHN C.
DERNBACH ROBERT B. MCKINSTRY,
JR.WIDENER UNIVERSITY PENN STATE
UNIVERSITYLAW SCHOOL 432
FOREST RESOURCES3800 VARTAN WAY
BUILDINGHARRISBURG, PA 17106
UNIVERSITY PARK, PA 16802(717) 541-1933
(484) 467-3207 Counsel of
RecordKIRSTEN H. ENGEL
STEPHANIE TAIUNIVERSITY OF ARIZNA
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSINCOLLEGE OF LAW
LAW SCHOOL1201 E. SPEEDWAY BLVD.
957 BASCOM MALLTUCSON, AZ 85721
MADISON, WI 53706(520) 621-5444
(608) 890-1236Counsel for Amici Curiae Climate
Scientists
3
Argument
  • I. The Science of Climate Change Indicates that
    It Is Virtually Certain that Greenhouse Gas
    Emissions from Human Activities Cause Global
    Climate Changes, Endangering Human Health and
    Welfare
  • II. EPA and the Court of Appeals Mischaracterized
    the Science of Climate Change, Making It Appear
    More Uncertain Than It Actually Is
  • III. EPA Did Not Apply the Standard of Scientific
    Evidence Set Forth in the Clean Air Act
  • Section 202 Requires Reasonable Anticipation of
    Endangerment to Public Health or Welfare, Not
    Absolute Scientific Certainty

4
Annual Mean
5
Dec.
December
6
2006-2007
-177
-213
-170
-35
-24
-626 DD -598 today
A S O N D J F M A
M J
7
Mean Annual Temperature
Blue Hill, MA
1895 - 2006 Average 48.20oF 1895 - 2006 Trend
0.24oF/Decade
8
Mean Annual Temperature
Blue Hill, MA
1970 - 2006 Average 49.05oF 1970 - 2006 Trend
0.52oF/Decade
9
9 of 10 Highest since 1995
10
2ppm/yr
1ppm/yr
http//www.mlo.noaa.gov/LiveData/FDataCCG.htm
11
http//www.mlo.noaa.gov/LiveData/FDataCCG.htm
12
Montreal Protocol
13
Methane
10 000 5,000
0 Years Ago
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Climate Model Results Pink/Blue
Observed
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Figure SPM-7. Solid lines are multi-model global
averages of surface warming (relative to 1980-99)
for thescenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as
continuations of the 20th century simulations.
Shading denotes the plus/minusone standard
deviation range of individual model annual means.
The number of AOGCMs run for a given timeperiod
and scenario is indicated by the coloured numbers
at the bottom part of the panel. The orange line
is for theexperiment where concentrations were
held constant at year 2000 values. The gray bars
at right indicate the bestestimate (solid line
within each bar) and the likely range assessed
for the six SRES marker scenarios. Theassessment
of the best estimate and likely ranges in the
gray bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of
the figure,as well as results from a hierarchy
of independent models and observational
constraints (Figs. 10.4 and 10.29)
4.0oC
600 800 1500
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1.0 mm/yr
2.0 mm/yr
20
Barn Island, Stonington, CT, Sea Level
Reconstruction
Boston
Calendar Years BP
0
200
400
600
New London, CT 1939-2000 (gray squares)
0
2.8 mm/year New York, NY 1856-2000 (black
circles)
1
1.0 0.2 mm/year (dashed line)
2
3
4
Elevation of MHW relative to modern MHW (cm)
5
6
-50
7
8
9
10
11
-100
1400
1600
1800
2000
Calendar Years A.D.
Donnelly et al., 2004 (GRL, v. 31, L05203)
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Overpeck et al. 2006, Science
26
1 meter
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2 meters
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3 meters
29
4 meters
30
5 meters
31
6 meters
32
Conclusions
  • Warming Trend Clear
  • Recent Rate Increase
  • Greenhouse Gases, too, except CFCs
  • Rates of Sea Level rise, too

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  • Greenland Ice Sheet 16 increase in melt area
    between 1979 and 2002 - still increasing, with
    new record in 2005

Mass loss also accelerating
2002
1992
35
Years ago
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Mean Summer Temperature
Blue Hill, MA
1895 - 2006 Average 67.97oF1895 - 2006 Trend
0.32oF/Decade
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