Brief Discussions of Types of EWS

1
VIEWBOOK Early Warning Systems Dos and Donts
October 20-23, 2003Shanghai, China
Conveners Dr. Michael Glantz Dr. Zhang Renhe
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Usable Science VIIIEarly Warning Systems Do's
and Don'ts

• An objective of this Usable Science Workshop on
  early warning is to identify lessons -- in short,
  do's and don'ts -- from the experiences of those
  who have worked with or helped to develop early
  warning systems for a wide range of societal
  concerns.
• The insights, lessons, and experiences identified
  in the workshop can be used to remind if not
  inform government officials, as well as decision
  makers in various government agencies and
  non-governmental organizations, about how to
  prepare effective warnings and to educate the
  media and the general public about how to
  interpret such warnings.
• Many early warning systems are in operation today
  to warn the public and governments about
  impending climate- or weather-related hazards and
  other threats.
• In sum, our overriding goal is to identify ways
  to make early warnings of potential "threats" to
  society and the environment more useful, usable,
  credible, and reliable.

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Agenda

• Monday, October 20
• 830 to 930 Introduction to workshop (p. 4)
• 930 to 1015 Participants Round-the-Table
  Introduction (5)
• 1015 to 1030 ISDR Conference Overview (6)
• 1030 to 1100 Break
• 1100 to 1145 Types of Early Warning Systems
  (7)
• 1145 to 1230 Aspects of EWSs The Basics (8)
• 1230 to 200 Lunch
• 200 to 245 Early Warnings in a Changing World
  (9)
• 245 to 330 EWS in Theory and in Practice (10)
• 330 to 400 Break
• 400 to 445 Expectations for Early Warning
  Systems (11)
• 445 to 530 Sustainable Development, EWS, and
  Politics (12)
• 630 to 830 Formal reception
• Tuesday, October 21
• 830 to 915 Reviewing Notion of Lessons
  Learned (13)

Wednesday, October 22 845 to 1000 SWOC
Discussion Revisited (18) 1000 to 1030 Break
1030 to 1115 Reliability and Credibility of
an EW (19,20) 1115 to 1200 Communicating
What to Whom? (21) 1200 to 130 Lunch 130
to 215 Institutional Factors Bureaucratic
Responses to EWSs (22) 215 to 300 The Role
of the Media and NGOs in EWS (23) 300 to 330
Break 330 to 415 An EW for new
EWS-related Developments (24) 415 to 500
Open Discussion Thursday, October 23 900 to
945 Late Lessons, Early Warnings
(25,26) 945 to 1030 Capacity Building for
Early Warning (27-29) 1030 to 1100
Break 1100 to 1215 Future Activities
(30) Adjourn
Early Warning Systems Dos and Donts October
20-23, 2003, Shanghai, China
4
Introduction to Workshop on Early Warning
Systems (EWS) Dos and Donts
Monday, October 20, 830 am to 930 am

• Dr. Qin Dahe, China Meteorological
  Administration, Administrator
• Dr. Michael Glantz, National Center for
  Atmospheric Research, Workshop Convener
• Dr. Zhang Renhe, Chinese Academy of
  Meteorological Sciences/CMA, co-Convener
• Dr. Clifford Jacobs, National Science Foundation,
  Section Head, Division of Atmospheric Sciences
• Dr. Qian Ye, National Center for Atmospheric
  Research, Chair, Workshop Secretariat

5
Participants Round-the-Table Introductions
Monday, October 20, 930 am to 1015 am

• Bun, Veasna
• Programme Officer
• Mekong River Commission
• Phnom Penh, Cambodia
• Dong, Rong
• Shanghai Meteorological Bureau
• Shanghai, China
• Fang, Cheng
• FAO/GIEWS
• Rome, Italy
• Garcia-Acosta, Virginia
• CIESAS
• Mexico City, Mexico
• Ghotbi, Nader
• Kyoto University

Henning, Job Science Applications International
Corporation Maclean, Virginia Jacobs,
Clifford National Science Foundation Washington,
DC Kelman, Ilan University of Cambridge Cambridge
, UK Khairulmaini BOS University of Malaya Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia Liu, Yujie Institute of
Satellite Meteorology Beijing, China Luo,
Yunfeng National Natural Science
Foundation Beijing, China Mao, Liuxi China
Meteorological Administration Beijing,
China Mohanty, Ashutosh Asian Institute of
Technology Orissa, India
Naranjo Diaz, Lino Santiago De Compostella
Univ. Santiago De Compostella, Spain Nicholls,
Neville Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne,
Australia Magalhães, Antonio World
Bank Brasilia, Brazil Pogge, Thomas Columbia
University New York, New York Rice,
Martin Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change
Research Kobe, Japan Shi, Qindong Xinjiang
University Urumqi, China Sponberg,
Kelly NOAA/OGP Washington, DC Wang,
Angsheng National Disaster Reduction
Center Beijing, China
Xiao, Fengjing National Climate Center Beijing,
China Ye, Qian National Center For Atmospheric
Research Boulder, Colorado Zhang, Renhe Chinese
Academy of Meteorological Science Beijing,
China Zhen, Guang Chinese Disease Prevention and
Control Center Beijing, China Zonn,
Igor Engineering Research Center on Water
Management Moscow, Russia Secretariat DJan
Stewart NCAR Boulder, Colorado Anne
Oman NCAR Boulder, Colorado
Early Warning Systems Dos and Donts October
20-23, 2003, Shanghai, China
6
ISDR EWC-II Conference Overview(www.ewc2.org)
Monday, October 20, 1015 am to 1030 am

• Mr. John Harding, ISDR
• Overview of the preparatory process, major themes
  and outputs of the Second International
  Conference on Early Warning (EWC-II). Bonn,
  Germany, 16-18 October 2003.

The Second International Conference on Early
Warning (EWC-II) took place from 16 to 18 October
2003 in Bonn, Germany. It was targeted
specifically at decision-makers and focused on
the need to integrate early warning into public
policies, in particular disaster reduction
policies. The EWC-II provided an opportunity to
take stock of existing needs and constraints in
the effective application of early warning
systems, and to exchange views on existing good
practices and emerging issues. The conference
allowed for the identification of priority
elements for action to ensure that current
efforts in support of improved early warning are
strengthened and sustained in the future.
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Brief Discussion of Types of EWS
Monday, October 20, 1100 am to 1145 am

• In space (global, regional, national, local)
• In time (quick onset, slow onset change,
  frequent, infrequent)
• In function (food, energy, water, health,
  safety, terror, threat to life, property,
  environment)
• In hazard (weather, climate, health, geo-hazard,
  terror)

8
Aspects of EWSs The Basics
Monday, October 20, 1145 am to 1230 pm

• Goals of EWS (warn government and or warn at-risk
  populations)
• Role of ethics and equity in developing an EWS
• EWS characteristics
• How early is early?
• What constitutes a warning?
• What is encompassed in a EWS?
• Must an early warning system involve creating
  effective preparedness and response mechanisms?
• EWS as a balance among costs, timeliness, and
  reliability
• Hazard characteristics
• Frequency
• Creeping (slow) onset or rapid (quick) onset
• Local, regional, national
• Others?

9
Early Warnings in a Changing World
Monday, October 20, 200 pm to 245 pm

• Agriculture (FAO Crop assessments)
• Water (quality, quantity)
• Health (SARS, epidemics)
• Public safety (slides, epidemics, floods)
• Fisheries (overfishing, overcapacity)
• Complex humanitarian crises

• Climate change (GHG emissions)
• Extreme meteorological events
• Floods (flash floods, slow onset)
• Tropical storms
• Dust storms
• Drought (rural, urban, agricultural, hydrologic,
  meteorological)
• Pests (locust)
• Desertification

10
EWS in Theory and in PracticeForeseeability,
Transparency and Accountability
Monday, October 20, 245 pm to 330 pm

• Are early warnings the same as forecasts?
  Projections? Trends? Risk assessments?
  Surveillance?
• Should there be accountability for early
  warnings?
• What ought to be as opposed to what is the
  value of an EWS?
• What are reasons that early warnings might be
  ignored?

11
Expectations for Early Warning Systems
Monday, October 20, 400 pm to 445 pm

• What should we expect from an EWS?
• Do we expect too much from an EWS?
• Hype vs. Hope in the use of EWS.
• Should we consider lowering expectations about
  what EWSs can do for society?

12
Sustainable Development, EWS, and Politics
Monday, October 20, 445 pm to 530 pm

• EWS and sustainable development What is the
  link?
• Is there a role for disaster diplomacy?
• What are the political aspects of early warnings
  and EWSs?
• Early warning is not a politically neutral act.
  
• Can EW become a neutral act?

13
Reviewing the Notion of Lessons Learned
Tuesday, October 21, 830 am to 915 am

• Are lessons being learned with regard to existing
  or preceding early warnings? Or
• Are we really learning lessons or are we just
  identifying them?

14
The Politics of Early Warning
Tuesday, October 21, 915 am to 1000 am

• Warning needs vary from user to user
  (governments, corporations, individuals,
  cultures), depending on what they want to know
  and when they need to know it.
• Do we need more than one EWS for a specific type
  of hazards that are tailored to the needs of
  different users?
• Do we need more than one official EW?
• Do the political aspects of an EWS preclude the
  possibility of transparency?

15
The Cascade of Early Warning SystemsEl Niño
Forecasts as an Example
Tuesday, October 21, 1030 am to 1115 am

• El Niño as a hazard spawner
• El Niño a change in sea level pressure across
  the tropical Pacific and a warming of the surface
  waters of the central and eastern equatorial
  Pacific, occurring on average every 4 ½ years.
• Teleconnections meteorological anomalies
  (weather and climate) around the globe that are
  associated with El Niño droughts, floods, fires,
  frosts, tropical storms, disease outbreaks, haze
  fish population shifts, etc.
• Warnings about impacts
• On ecosystems flora, fauna
• On societies water, energy, food, health, public
  safety (disaster avoidance)

16
What is SWOC?
Tuesday, October 21, 1115 am to 1245 pm

• Small Group Discussions
• Apply a SWOC (Strengths, Weaknesses,
  Opportunities, Constraints) assessment to the
  following aspects of an EWS
• Selection of indicators
• Monitoring of indicators
• Issuing the warning
• Communicating the warning
• Receiving the warning
• Believing the warning
• Acting on the warning
• Consistent funding stream for an EWS

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Hollow Square at LaoFanDian Hotel
Tuesday, October 21, 800 pm to 1000 pm

• China and its Early Warning Systems Some Examples

http//weather.tradingcharts.com/maps/freeaccess/C
hina_Jpn_Kor_Curr_Crop_Moisture.gif
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SWOC Discussion Revisited
Wednesday, October 22, 845 am to 1000 am

• Findings of the small group about SWOC
  aspectspresented and discussed
• Group 1 Early Warning Indicators
• Group 2 Communicating Warnings
• Group 3 Responses to Warnings

19
Reliability and Credibility of an EW
Wednesday, October 22, 1030 am to 1115 am

• How to deal with probability?
• Words vs. probabilities
• Is the notion of foreseeability useful for
  early warning?
• How can one measure the effectiveness of an EWS
  absence of event, impacts, deaths, destruction
  when compared to previous similar events?
• What types of indicators are useful?
  (quantitative, qualitative, anecdotal, scenarios)
• Quantitative and qualitative input to an EWS?
• Can EWS use anecdotal information?
• Are signals useful to detect changes?
• What might be the role of indigenous early
  warning indicators?

20
Foreseeability
Perceptions of Probability

• Foreseeability
• to see beforehand, to foreknow
• application of the concept to determine
  responsibility for damage
• Foreseeable risk -- a risk whose consequences a
  person of ordinary prudence would expect might
  occur
• Foreseeability differs from predictability or
  forecasting because it neither depends on nor
  implies the quantitative description of the
  probability of harm
• Foreseeability encompasses not only that which
  the defendant foresaw, but that which the
  defendant ought to have foreseen

Fischhoff, B., 1994 What forecasts (seem to)
mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10,
387-403.
21
Communicating What to Whom?
Wednesday, October 22, 1115 am to 1200 pm

• Whom to warn about what, and when?
• Does equity matter?
• Does color matter?
• In what ways does it help catalyze response
  mechanisms?
• In what ways does it hinder response mechanisms?

22
Institutional Factors Bureaucratic Responses to
EWSs
Wednesday, October 22, 130 pm to 215 pm

• What is the role of bureaucratic responsibilities
  in the effectiveness of early warnings?

23
The role of the media and NGOs in EWS
Wednesday, October 22, 215 pm to 300 pm

• What is the globalizing effect of the
  international medias reporting of an EW?
• El Niño
• Droughts
• Food shortages
• SARS
• Terror
• Cyber-terror (worms)
• Other

24
An EW for new EWS-related Developments
Wednesday, October 22, 330 pm to 415 pm

• Consider the value for hazards EW of a positive
  EWS to identify positive changes and progress
  in
• Monitoring
• Detection
• Dissemination
• Technology
• Techniques
• Understanding
• Whose responsibility?

25
Late Lessons, Early Warnings An Open Discussion
Thursday, October 23, 900 am to 945 am

• Discounting the past is there a time bias for
  lessons learned?
• That worked then but this is now. Things have
  changed.
• What is the value of the precautionary
  principle?
• Whats the controversy over this principle?
• Are there thresholds for enacting the
  precautionary principle?

26
Late Lessons from early warnings the
precautionary principle 1896-2000 (European
Environment Agency, 2001)
Thursday, October 23, 900 am to 945 am

• Respond to ignorance as well as uncertainty
• Research and monitor for early warnings
• Search out and address blind spots and gaps in
  scientific knowledge
• Identify and reduce interdisciplinary obstacles
  to learning
• Ensure that real-world conditions are fully
  accounted for
• Systematically scrutinize and justify the claimed
  pros and cons
• Evaluate alternatives and promote robust, diverse
  and adaptable solutions
• Use lay and local knowledge as well as all
  relevant specialist expertise
• Take account of wider social interests and values
• Maintain regulatory independence from economic
  and political special interests
• Identify and reduce institutional obstacles to
  learning and action
• Avoid paralysis by analysis

27
Capacity Building for Early Warning
Thursday, October 23, 945 am to 1030 am

• What does it mean to build capacity?
• Institutional
• Individual
• Societal
• Creating a culture of prevention
• What are the ethical aspects of capacity
  building?
• Capacity building by proxy
• Is the call for capacity building sincere or
  just a palliative?

28
Capacity Building Developing Country (UNDP)
Definition

• Capacity building is defined as
• The creation of an enabling environment
• Institutional development and community
  participation
• Human resource development
• UNDP recognizes that capacity building is a
  long-term, continuing process, in which all
  stakeholders participate.
• www.gdrc.org/uem/capacity-define.html

29
Ethical Challenges of Building Capacity

• The risk that the presence of international
  agencies will undermine local organizational
  capacities
• Failure to match external aid supply systems to
  peoples needs
• Unequal partnerships between outsiders and local
  organizations
• How to work with government institutions in an
  effective and politically neutral manner
• Imposition of outsiders predetermined aid
  agendas
• How far agencies can and should go in addressing
  the root causes of vulnerability to disasters
• What constitutes success and how to measure it
• The unintended and sometimes damaging
  consequences of interventions

International Federation of Red Cross and Red
Crescent Societies, 2003 World Disasters Report
Focus on Ethics in Aid. Kumarian Press.
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Future Activities
Thursday, October 23, 1100 am to 1215 pm

• How urgent is the need for early warning
  education and training?
• Is capacity building by proxy an option?
• What are the different ways to identify value
  of an EWS?
• Research needs for EWSs?
• Is it possible or necessary to prioritize issues
  that need to be addressed in support of the
  strengthening of EWS worldwide?
• Where might we go from here?