Drawing Lobbyists to Washington: Government Activity and InterestGroup Mobilization

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Drawing Lobbyists to Washington Government
Activity and Interest-Group Mobilization

• By Leech, Baumgartner, La Pira, Semanko
• Discussed by
• Joel Waldfogel

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Cool Dataset

• Annual Federal Budgets, by category
• CQ Almanac
• Congressional Hearings
• NYT stories
• US Public Laws passed
• Downloadable and Free!

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The Week I was Born

• Random NYT Headline
• Headline Govt suspends decree
• Summary Iran Govt suspends decree giving women
  right to vote to avert demonstrations by
  religious leaders
• Public Law Passed
• S1447 set pay schedules and qualifications for
  D.C. teachers
• Hearing
• Committee on Internal Security (1969-1975)
• communist penetration of radio facilities

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Looking Gift Horse in the Mouth

• News aspect is spotty
• Random sample of NYT stories
• Perhaps important, if events prompt, say,
  lobbying and hearings
• But, on to the paper.

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What I normally do on Saturday morning
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What Ill do today

• Rogers Hammerstein
• Trygve Haavelmo
• Bonnie Raitt
• Frank Baumgartner

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Research question

• Deep question
• Does growth in government beget growth in
  lobbying?
• More specifically
• Do the policy areas with the greatest levels of
  government activity have the most groups
  lobbying?

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Theory

• Old question
• Organizational factors vs external factors
• New answer (this paper)
• Expect government attention, as opposed to group
  structure, to elicit lobbying

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Theory Quibbles

• Not govt attention per se
• Rather, swayability (a word?)
• Some big aspects of government are off the table
  no point in talking or listening
• When are talking and listening fruitful?
• When its up in the air decision could go
  either way.

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Theory Quibbles, Continued

• Reminiscent of suit/settlement literature
• 50 percent rule (Priest and Klein)
• Disputes require costly resolution (e.g. trial)
  only when near decision standard
• Disputes whose outcomes are predictable (to all)
  dont require costly dispute resolution
• Now substitute hearing for trial
• Dont need hearings on, say, whether we should
  maintain the Constitution

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Data

• Lobbying disclosure dataset
• Shows DC lobbying activity on 74 issues
• 8 successive 6-month periods
• talking
• Policy Agendas Project
• Indicators of government attention to each
  issue-area over time
• Hearings listening
• Govt spending

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Empirical test

• Where Llobbying, Hhearings, Sspending
• Does H cause L?
• Issues addressed
• Error structure

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Little Picture Empirical Quibbles

• Variation is mostly CX
• How should we think about the time variation?
• What happens with fixed effects?
• Moving average how many observations?
• Why not one cross section?

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Bigger Picture thoughts about empirical test

• My version of the theory Talking increases with
  listening
• Supply and demand analogies
• Regressing Q on P? Q on Q?
• Thoughts/Questions
• How should one interpret the positive association
  between L and H?

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Rogers Hammerstein
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Econometric Words of Wisdom

• Do I love you because you're beautiful
• Or are you beautiful because I love you
• And so on
• Am I making believe I see in youA girl too
  lovely to be really trueDo I want you because
  you're wonderfulOr are you wonderful because I
  want youAre you the sweet invention of a lover's
  dreamOr are you really as beautiful as you seem
• From Rogers and Hammerstein Cinderella (Do I
  Love You Because You're Beautiful?)

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Trygve Haavelmo
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(No Transcript)
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Direction of Causality

• Do hearings cause lobbying?
• Does the mobilization of support on an issue
  prompt Congress to hold hearings?
• Probably both
• What causes hearings?
• Someone wants to talk
• What causes lobbying?
• Someone is listening

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Story

• Something happens
• Gets public exorcised
• Causes Congress to hold hearings
• Talking lobbying and listening hearings
  arise jointly when there is something to talk
  about

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Lets Give them Something to Talk about
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Difficult Problem

• To measure effect of government on lobbying, need
  source of exogenous variation in hearings
  (willingness to listen)
• But its a hard problem
• Time-series variation affected by events
• Changing the need to have a conversation
• CX variation also endogenous
• Committee structure depends on what people care
  about

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Maybe party changes

• When control of committee of Congress changes
• Willingness to listen changes discretely
• May not change volume, but could change identity
  of wheedlers
• Would provide evidence that listeners affect
  talkers
• (unless sea change in conversation topics changes
  listeners and talkers simultaneously)

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Doubts

• about whether empirical evidence sheds light on
  paper conclusion
• The amount of government activity has a
  significant on interest-group mobilization
• government activity acts as a magnet
• groups do not automatically form and come to
  Washington there must be a demand for them.
  Government creates that demand
• Do extra office hours cause extra grade
  complaints?