Title: Human Supercentenarian Epidemiology and the Implications for Longevity Medicine Strategies for Engin
1Human Supercentenarian Epidemiology and the
Implications for Longevity MedicineStrategies
for Engineered Negligible
SenescenceL. Stephen Coles,
M.D., Ph.D.UCLA School of MedicineLos Angeles,
California USAE-mail scoles_at_ucla.edu URL
http//www.grg.org Monday, September 22, 2003
300 315 PMInternational Association of
Biomedical Gerontology 10th CongressQueens
College Cambridge University UK 4 Days 75
Speakers 270 Attendees 27 Countries
2Demographics of Centenarians
- In 1990, it was estimated that there were 37,306
Centenarians in the United States (28,000 may be
more accurate, accounting for the likelihood of a
large number of false claims) - In 2000, the US 2000 Census Report counted 50,454
Centenarians in the United States (out of 281.4
million Americans) (more than 450,000
worldwide)(However, 42,000 may be more accurate,
again accounting for the extensive number of
false claims) - By 2050, the Census Bureau estimates that the
number of US Centenarians will grow to 834,000
and double every ten years thereafter - ______________________________________________
__________________ - The 2000 Census counted 1,388 Supercentenarians
(persons gt 110 years). However, the SSA has
only about 140 such persons on their rolls. Of
these 140, at least one-third (and maybe
more) are exaggerated claims. Thus, the true
number of US Living Supercentenarians is probably
closer to 75 - 100. As of September
22, 2003, the GRG validated --- with rigorous
documentation --- just 18 Living US
Supercentenarians
(43 Supercentenarians throughout the entire world
Gender Ratio 38
females 5 males)
3Demographics of Centenarians
4Madame Jeanne Louise CalmentDied on August 4,
1997 at Age 122-- The Worlds Oldest Person
(Documented by The Guinness Book of Records)
Age 40 Age 120
5Progressive World Record Holders
6Mrs. Kamato Hongo of Japan Age 116 born
September 15, 1887
7Mrs. Maud Farris Luse Age 115January 21, 1887
- March 18, 2002
8John I. McMorran Age 113June 19, 1889 -
February 24, 2003 Movie at http//www.grg.org/JM
cMorran0.htmJohn at 111 and then
with Mr. Scott McMorran, his 39 yo Great Grandson
9 Mrs. Elma Grace Corning of Los Angeles Age 111
born February 22, 1892
- with her son
Russell, age 87
10 Four More Los Angeles Supercentenarians
Mrs. Mage Russell, 110 Mrs. Marion Higgins,
110 Mrs. Mollie Beard, 110 (Died) Mr.
Gerald Gilman, 110
11Supercentenarian Phenotype(The Struldbruggs in
Gullivers Travels by Jonathan Swift)
- Old, Decrepit, Sick Folks
- Deaf (Hard of hearing, correctable by bilateral
hearing aids) - Blind (Macular Degeneration, uncorrectable by
eyeglasses or cataract surgery) - Smell, Taste, Touch, suspected decreased
- Bad Teeth (Dentures)
- Frailty, Sarcopenia (confined to bed or a wheel
chair) - Skin (Stiff, Leathery Tissue-Paper Thin)
- Poor Orientationx3 (Neurodegenerative disease,
Senility or Dementia) (But Excellent Long-Term
Memory) - Virtually never needed to see a doctor before age
90 - No Autopsy (Necropsy) Data yet
1243 Living Supercentenarian38 females and 5
males (as of September 22, 2003)
- Name Nationality Gender Race Age
(Years) Date-of-Birth - Kamato Hongo Japan F
O 116 Sept 16, 1887 - Yukichi Chuganji Japan M
O 114 Mar. 23, 1889 - Mitoyo Kawate Japan F
O 114 May 15, 1889 - Elana Slough U.S. (NJ) F F
114 July 8, 1889 - Charlotte Benkner U.S. (OH) F W
113 Nov. 16, 1889 - Joan Riudavets Spain M W
113 Dec. 15, 1889 - Aurelia Marotta U.S. (MA) F W
113 June 27, 1890 - Hendrikje Van Andel Netherlands F W
113 June 29, 1890 - Mary Crombie U.S. (IL) F W
113 July 6, 1890 - Emma Verona Johnston U.S. (OH) F W
113 Aug. 6, 1890 - Ura Koyama Japan F O
113 Aug. 30, 1890 - Susie Gibson U.S. (AL) F W
112 Oct. 31, 1890
1343 Living Supercentenarians(as of September 22,
2003 Contd.)
- Name Nationality
Gender Race Age (Years) Date-of-Birth - 13. Mise Ito Japan F O 112 Nov. 6, 1890
- Fred Hale U.S. (NY) M W 112 Dec. 1, 1890
- Sawayo Tanaka Japan F O 112 June 9, 1891
- Grace Thaxton U.S. (KY) F W 112 June 18,
1891 - Julie Winnefred Bertrand Canada (Que) F W 111
Sept. 16, 1891 - Christine Hall U.S. (IL) F W 111 Dec. 3,
1891 - Gladys Hawley England (UK) F W 111 Dec. 18,
1891 - Virginia Dighero-Zolezzi Italy F W 111
Dec. 24, 1891 - Agnes Rich U.S. (GA) F W 111 Jan. 20, 1892
- Tsuru Fukuhara Japan F O 111 Feb. 10, 1892
- Yutaka Endo Japan F O 111 Feb. 15, 1892
- Elma Grace Corning U.S. (CA) F W 111 Feb.
22, 1892
1443 Living Supercentenarians(as of September 22,
2003 Contd.)
- Name Nationality
Gender Race Age (Years) Date-of-Birth - Yoki Yonehara Japan F O 111 Mar. 2, 1892
- Maria Muraro Italy F W 111 Mar. 29, 1892
- Lucy D'Abreu Scotland F IW 111 May 24, 1892
- Kame Higa Japan F O 111 June 22, 1892
- Mary Ellen Swan Canada (Ont) F W 111 June 24,
1892 - Anders Engberg Sweden M W 111 July 1, 1892
- Haru Shimazu Japan F O 111 July 7, 1892
- Salvina Martinelli Avanzi Italy F W 111 Aug.
2, 1892 - Lilla De Geronimi-Zinara Italy F W 110 Dec.
2, 1892 - Anne-Marie Vandermersch Belgium F W 110 Dec.
14, 1892 - (Eleanor) Maebelle Plant U.S. (FL) F W 110
Feb. 25, 1893 - Litta Walker U.S. (NE) F W 110 Mar. 23, 1893
1543 Living Supercentenarians(as of September 22,
2003 Contd.)
- Name Nationality Gender
Race Age (Years) Date-of-Birth - Lydia Newton U.S. (AZ) F W
110 Mar. 23, 1893 - Minnie Kearby U.S. (IN) F W 110
April 14, 1893 - Hermann Dornemann Germany M W 110 May 27,
1893 - Grace Rebecca Jones U.S. (VA) F W 110 June
4, 1893 - Gesuina Donati Italy F W 110 June 8,
1893 - Lena Dionne U.S. (FL) F W 110
June 14, 1893 - Marion Higgins U.S. (CA) F W 110
June 26, 1893 - Check http//www.grg.org/calment.html
-
for the most recent updates.
16Table of Supercentenarian Population Trends
ranging from August 1966 - September 2003
- Absolute Numbers Not Per Capita
-
17Estimated World Population 1650 2000
- Cohort Size Increased by 400 Million
18Demographics of Supercentenarians
- Our number of 43 Supercentenarians world-wide is
based on validated cases, for which there are
relatives willing to provide us with
documentation (our cases frequently outlive their
relatives) - In 1990, the US Census Bureau reported that there
were 2,700 sic Supercentenarians - In 2000, they reported only 1,400
Supercentenarians (About half of the errors were
eliminated by comparing the Date-of-Birth with
claimed Age, which were the result of people who
didnt know how to do arithmetic Sigh!) - In 2002, the SSA admitted that there were
actually 139 persons age 110 or over receiving
Social Security benefits - Because most of these cases are exaggerated, the
true number is more likely to be between 75 and
100 persons - No conclusions about whether these numbers over
the last forty years are actually growing on a
per capita basis can be made at this time
19Can We Better Estimate the True Number of
Supercentenarians?
- The total number Supercentenarians cited above
has been frequently been misconstrued in the news
media as representing every single person in the
world aged 110 and over. The actual estimated
number of worldwide living Supercentenarians is
more likely to be between 300 - 450 persons.
For the USA, we predict something like 60 - 75
Supercentenarians. - While the total number of validated cases
cited earlier is only about ten percent of the
suspected real-world total, it should also be
noted that the bulk of the true Supercentenarians
actually fall between 110 - 113 years old
hardly any ever survive to live past 115. Our
estimate of 300 - 450 persons is based on a
survival percentage of centenarians-to-age-110 to
be between 0.15 - 0.25 percent. - It should be noted that a significant majority of
worldwide claimants to be age 110-or-over have
subsequently been proven to be false
these individuals and more often their family or
friends have their own personal motives
for claiming these persons and, we are sad to
report, are occasionally disingenuous (not
well-intentioned).
20U.S. Life Expectancy with Age by gender
for the Year 2000Source "Deaths Leading
Causes for 2000," and "Deaths Final Data for
2000" NVSR, Vol. 50, Nos. 15 and 16 (PHS)(CDC,
National Center for Health Statistics Atlanta,
GA September 16, 2002).
21Is the Number of Supercentenarians Really
Increasing (per capita)?
- We believe that the increasing number of true
cases that we have observed during the last 40
years are the result of at least two factors - better methods of identifying and documenting
these individuals, not to mention the diligence
of our own committee members throughout the world
who deserve much of the credit and - far more persons are reaching 110 than ever
before. That is, people who were dying at 105 -
109 are now reaching 110 - 113 years of age. - Please note that the SSA data show that both of
these reasons are major factors, and that it
would be incorrect to ascribe all of the increase
to an actual increase in longevity or all of the
increase due to better record-keeping. Coming in
the next few months, an SSA Report, along with
our own historical databases, will better show
how much of the increase can be ascribed to each
of these two factors. - Finally, there is no statistical evidence to
support the hypothesis that the absolute number
of Supercentenarians is increasing as a
percentage of the total population, although
there is some evidence from animal studies that a
reduction in the force of evolution after age 90
changes our mortality from an exponentially-increa
sing rate to a constant rate in the oldest old
31. This has become an important area of
research in biodemography, and the answers are
not in yet 32.
22 Is there a Mortality Plateau?
- When a species vitality due to the Force of
Natural Selection goes from 100 percent (at
puberty) to zero percent it cannot go negative
(post menopause or reproductive competence
modulo any grand-parenting effect), the
mortality rate is transformed from an exponential
function to a linear function, creating a knee
or plateau in the upward log mortality
regression line. For humans, this appears to
happen at about age 95. In other words, if you
manage to make it to age 95, the rate of
mortality seems to ease off a little bit,
allowing Centenarians to live quite a bit longer
than they otherwise should.
23Is There a Mortality Plateau at the Oldest
Ages?
- The observation of a mortality plateau or
mortality deceleration could be due to one or
both of two different hypotheses 32 - Genetic Heterogeneity Over time, individuals
with the lowest death rates will populate a
single congenic cohort, because other cohorts
with higher death rates will already be
extinguished. - Natural Selection There will be a leveling of
mortality rates at advanced ages due to a
diminished evolutionary force of natural
selection.
24Validation of Exceptional Longevity, Odense
Monographs on Population Aging, Vol. 6 (Odense
University Press 1999)
25Scientific Centenarian Study Groups Throughout
the World
- Country Principal Investigator(s)
Institution(s) Approximate -
Number of
Centenarians Studied - 1. USA Dr. Tom Perls, MD New England
Centenarian Study - Boston University Boston, MA
650 - 2. USA Dr. Leonard Poon, MD University of
Georgia 140 - 3. France Drs. Jean-Marie Robine and Michel
Allard - IPSEN Foundation
900 - 4. France Drs. Robine and James Vaupel
- Supercentenarians Database
INSERM, Montpellier 35 - 5. Italy Dr. Claudio Franceschi
- National Research Council and
Ministries 2000 - 6. Denmark Dr. Bernard Jeune Odense University
275 - 7. China Dr. Zeng Yi and James Vaupel
- The Chinese National Research
Center on Aging - Peking University and Duke
University NIH - Max Plack Institute for
Demographic Research 4900
26Six Blind Men and the Elephant
- Body Wall Tusk Spear Trunk Snake
Leg Tree Ear Fan Tail Rope
27.Cherubim with Flaming Sword who Guards the East
Gate to the Garden of Eden. Osiris, God
of Immortality, celebrated in The Egyptian Book
of the Dead, Husband of Isis,
Brother of Seth, in Tomb of Tutankhamen. Ponce
de Leon in Florida 1460 - 1521 Two Alchemists
c. 1740. The Rosetta Stone (Hieroglyphics,
Demotic, and Greek) 196 B.C. found July 1799
A.D. (Antediluvians Methuselah)
28 We simply dont know the right stuff (Trinity
College Dublin, IRELAND)
29Homo sapiens First Lived in Ethiopia, Central
Africa 160,000 Years Ago
30Free-Radical Oxidative Stress is Like the Damage
from Wind and Water Erosion on the Pyramids
31So What is the Centenarians Secret?
- LINK?
- Why do Supercentenarians live so long?
- Not because they dont age. Indeed, they do age.
- But because they seem to age more uniformly (not
more slowly) - They received a fortuitous genetic roll of the
dice in a stochastic process that left no
conspicuous weak links in their chain
32Three Possible Life Histories for a Human Being
(slopes a, b, c)
- Resembles a roller coaster ride at the end of
life - Biological Warranty Period 0 55 years
- S. Jay Olshansky, University of Chicago
33Strategy for Doubling Maximum Lifespan
Recapitulation of Development
- Adult Stem Cells in situ must be stimulated to
undergo fresh organogenesis, in the context of an
adult organism (constrained by the architecture
of our pre-existing tissues, which risk being
obliterated by multiple, simultaneous teratomas
if we didnt do it right)(need systematic
apoptosis) - Nature has never been observed to do this, so
there are no model organisms to guide us (Sigh!) - Were at the Need-for-Blood-Transfusion in 1800
stage of solving this problem we need to learn
the signaling language of stem-cell
communication in the absence of instruction,
stem cells are stupid
34The Human Genome (February 2001)
35Dr. Craig Venter, The Center for Advancement of
Genomics Dr. Francis Collins, NIH
36Genomic Sequences of Species National Human
Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) Dr. Francis
Collins, Director and Dr. Alan Guttmacher, Deputy
Director -- Genome Resources and Sequencing
Priority Panel (Prof. William Gelbart of Harvard
University, Chairman)
37 But Genetic Engineering is Slow
- To date, some 1,150 human-disease genes have been
discovered, but only a few have led to a cure.
Only one, for CML (Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia),
has reached the market. Delivery Vectors are a
problem. - Genomics 25 30,000 human genes
- Genetic homology among all mammals 99 percent
- Proteomics 200-300,000 human proteins
- Harvard Center for Genomics Research, TIGR,
Celera Genomics, Lawrence Livermore, and Sandia
National Laboratories (DOE)(Developing Parallel
Architecture Blade Servers running the Linux OS
with Clusters of Standard Processors executing
parallel BLAST)(ASCI Q) - IBMs Blue Gene Supercomputer (100 million
100x faster) to solve the protein folding
problem
38Aristotles Treatise on Animals Book III c.
330 B.C.
39Fetal Development of Left Hand Post Web
Apoptosis
40Embryogenesis is a Computer Program (without
Do-Loops)
- The genome is executed
- like a set of dominos
- ready to fall over
- if any dominos are missing
- the program will fail.
- Then, there are no more
- dominos.
41Tampering with Nature by
42Technology Stem Cells High
magnification of an early embryo at the tip of a
needleScientific American, Vol. 285, No. 6, p.
27 (December 2001).
43Three Important Unknown Questions about Stem Cells
- Are Adult Stem Cells as good as Embryonic Stem
Cells? - Is the Red Cross Blood Bank model of Type and
Cross Match for a Stem-Cell Bank good enough to
prevent rejection or must stem cells be
autologous? Solving the problem of adult stem
cells is sort of like solving the problem of
blood transfusion in 1900 before the discovery of
the ABO Typing System - Are there chemokines available to turn adult stem
cells on in situ? (and then turn them off)
44Dr. Michael West, CEO,Advanced Cell
Technologyof Worcester, MA US News World
Report (December 3, 2001) and Scientific
American (January 2002).
45Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer in Humans
Pronuclear and Early Embryonic Development,
e-Biomed (November 26, 2001).
46Dolly the Sheep, First Cloned Species 1996 -
2003
As of September 15, 2003, PPL Therapeutics, a
spinoff of the Roslin Institute has ceased
operations.
47Table of Cloned Species
48Prospects for Anti-Aging Interventions
- Pituitary Hormonal Rebalancing (1990)
- hGH (IGF-1, Hypothalamic/Pineal Secretagogues)
- Thyroid
- Sex Steroids and the Neuro/Endocrine Axis
- Telomere Shortening (Telomerase)(1996)
- Caloric Restriction (CR)(1998)(NIA 20M)
- Free Radicals (AntiOxidants and Cross-Link
Breaker Drugs)(2000) - Dissolvers for Lipofuscin Accumulation (2002)
- Immune Competence (Anti-Inflammation)
- Nanotechnology
- Adult/Embryonic Autologous/Generic Stem Cells
(2003) - All of the above Rearranging the deck chairs
on the Titanic - Continuously Reprogram the Genome
49The Politics of Anti-Aging Therapeutics
- To argue that human life would be better without
death is to argue that human life would be better
without being human... The finitude of human life
is a blessing for every individual whether he
knows it or not."--- Leon R. Kass, M.D., Addie
Clark Hardinig Professor at the University of
Chicago, Chairman of President George W. Bush's
Bioethics Council, and Shakespearean Master of
apologism who coined the phrase The Wisdom of
Repugnance. - Refs p. 144, Nicholas Wade, Life Script
How the Human Genome Discoveries Will Transform
Medicine and Enhance Your Health (Simon
Schuster, New York 2001). - Mortality and Morality The Virtue of
Finitude, (1983) Toward a More Natural Science
Biology and Human Affairs, p. 308 (Free Press
New York 1985). - Editorial Remark We readily acknowledge
that eliminating that form of death secondary to
intrinsic aging would create a significantly
different world than the one we are used to. But
we respectfully disagree with Dr. Kass regarding
its undesirability. In our view, being human is a
condition that was thrust upon us (without our
consent), and we see nothing intrinsically sacred
about retaining the form of a mortal human being.
If nothing else, Nature has proven herself to
be ruthlessly experimental. We see no reason why
we should not take some risks and do a few
experiments of our own. After all, without such
experimentation, there is no other certainty but
death.
50Otherwise, the Doctors Magic Wand or the Grim
Reaper Awaits with his Scythe and Hour Glass
51We Need a Bridge Plan to Get Us to the Other
Side
- 'Bridge of Hope' by Thomas Kinkade
- Media Arts Group, Inc. Morgan Hill, California
52- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
- An abbreviated list of the 45 Committee members
and their associated staff includes the
following - Mr. Louis Epstein, Chairman of the
Supercentenarian Committee, NY USA - Mr. Robert Young of Atlanta, GA USA
- Dr. Tom Perls, Director of the NECS affiliated
with Boston University, Boston, MA USA - Dr. Leonid Gavrilov of the University of Chicago,
IL USA - Dr. Leonard Poon of Georgia who directs another
Centenarian Study for the South, GA USA - Dr. Tom Johnson of the University of Colorado,
CO USA - Dr. Steven Austad, Zoologist from the University
of Idaho, ID USA - Dr. John Wilmoth a Demographer from UC Berkeley,
CA USA - Mr. Johnny Adams Los Angeles Gerontology
Research Group, CA USA - Dr. Bertrand Desjardins and Mr. Robert Bourbeau
CANADA - Mr. Thatcher, Registrar General for England and
Wales UK - Dr. M. Poulain Mr. Dany Chambre Mr. Bart
Versieck BELGIUM - Mr. Giovanni Alunni Rome, ITALY
- Mr. Gert Jan Kuiper NETHERLANDS
- Dr. Bernard Jeune of Odense University DENMARK
- Mr. Foti Tillo SWEDEN
- Mr. Dag Hoelseth NORWAY
53Our Scientific Legacy(Open Notes for Names)
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66Cartoon from The New Yorker
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