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Bruce Katz November 9, 1999

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Title: Bruce Katz November 9, 1999


1
The Brookings Institution
Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy
The New Metropolitan Agenda
Presentation to the Indiana Land Use Consortium
Bruce Katz November 9, 1999
2
The sign of a truly educated person is to be
deeply moved by statistics. - George Bernard
Shaw
3
?
?
Major Questions
  • What are the major trends affecting metropolitan
    areas today?
  • How do cities and counties in Indiana reflect
    these trends?
  • Where do we go from here?

4
?
?
Major Questions
  • What are the major trends affecting metropolitan
    areas today?

5
Decentralization is the dominant trend in U.S.
metropolitan areas.
6
Population Shifts in Top 10 American Cities,
1980-1997
7
Outer suburbs are experiencing a population boom.
8
Population Change, Denver Metropolitan Area
1980-1998
Denver population (1998) 499,055
9
Population Change, Chicago Metropolitan Area
1980-1998
Chicago population (1998) 2,802,079
10
Population Change, Baltimore Metropolitan Area
1980-1998
Baltimore population (1998) 645,593
11
Outer Suburbs Continue to Garner the Lions Share
of New Housing and New Homeowners.
12
Suburbs Consistently Outpace Cities In New
Housing Permits, 1986-1998
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current
Construction Reports
13
Outer suburbs are experiencing substantial job
growth.
14
Job Location in Washington, D.C. Region, 1990
15
Job Location in Washington, D.C. Region, 1997
16
Net Job Growth in Seven Metropolitan Areas in
Ohio, 1994-1997
Includes Akron, Cincinnati, Cleveland,
Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown MSAs
Source Edward Hill John Brennan, Where is the
Renaissance Employment Specialization within
Ohios Metro Areas, Sept. 1998.
17
is becoming more concentrated in central cities.
Poverty
18

Between 1970 and 1990, the number of people
living in neighborhoods where 40 or more of the
residents are poor nearly doubled from 4.1
million to 8 million people.
Source Paul Jargowsky, Poverty and Place,
Russell Sage, 1997.
19
Percentage of City Population Living in High
Poverty Neighborhoods, 1990
Source Paul Jargowsky, Poverty and Place,
Russell Sage, 1997 U.S. Census data.
20
General Population Welfare Caseload, Four
Urban Areas
21
Urban Public School Achievement Percent of 4th
grade students at basic level on NAEP, 1996
Source Diane Ravitch, A New Era in Urban
Education, Brookings Policy Brief 35, August
1998.
22
Growth and decentralization are re-making
suburbs, changing suburban politics and fueling
metro coalitions.
23
Older suburbs are beginning to take on many of
the challenges of central cities.
  • Increasing school poverty
  • Growing racial and ethnic diversity
  • Declining fiscal capacity.
  • Declining commercial corridors and retail malls

24
Percent of Students Eligible for Free and
Reduced Cost Lunch, 1997
25
Newer suburbs are also experiencing severe
challenges, such as
  • Choking congestion
  • Overcrowded schools
  • Loss of open space

26
Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled Philadelphia
Region, 1980-1997
55
VMT in Millions
Regional Population Increase 1980-1997 3
Source Philadelphia Inquirer
27
Loss of Open Space
  • The Washington region is losing 10,300 acres a
    year (28 acres a day) to development that is
    equivalent to an area four times the size of Rock
    Creek Park.
  • The United States has lost nearly 30.5 million
    acres of productive farmland to development since
    1970, at an average rate of 2 acres per minute.

Source Washington Post American Farmland Trust.
28
Why is this Happening?
1. Interstate Highway Act / Automobile
dominance 2. FHA mortgage financing 3.
De-industrialization of central cities 4. Urban
renewal 5. Levittown (mass produced suburban
tract house)
Source Bob Fishman,1999 Fannie Mae Foundation
Annual Housing Conference Survey The American
Metropolis at Centurys End Past and Future
Influence, September 1999
29
Why is this Happening?
6. Racial segregation / job discrimination 7.
Enclosed Shopping Malls 8. Sunbelt-Style
Sprawl 9. Air Conditioning 10. Urban riots of the
1960s
Source Bob Fishman,1999 Fannie Mae Foundation
Annual Housing Conference Survey The American
Metropolis at Centurys End Past and Future
Influence, September 1999
30
How do Cities and Counties in Indiana reflect
these trends?
31
POPULATION
32
Population Change, Indianapolis Metropolitan
Area 1980-1998
Indianapolis population (1998) 741,304
33
Population Change, Fort Wayne Metropolitan Area
1980-1998
Fort Wayne population (1998) 185,716
34
Population Change, Evansville Metropolitan Area
1980-1998
Evansville population (1998) 122,779
35
Population Change, Gary Metropolitan Area
1980-1998
Gary population (1998) 108,469
36
Population Change, South Bend Metropolitan Area
1980-1998
South Bend population (1998) 99,417
37
Indianapolis Metropolitan Areas 1990 Share of
Population 1990 Share of Minority Population
38
JOBS
39
City vs. Suburb Job Location
City of Indianapolis
Job Growth
Change 1993-96 City 4.7 Suburbs 17
Source John Brennan, Edward Hill, Where are the
Jobs Cities, Suburbs, and the Competition for
Employment Cleveland State University, August
1999 Draft
40
Net Change in Pay Indianapolis vs. Suburbs
1991-1993 City 3.7 Suburb .1
1993-1996 City 0.7 Suburb 8.9
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
State of the Cities Report, 1999
41
Percent Change in Total Establishments 1991-93
1993-96
24.7
9.0
3.5
-2.9
Source Department of Housing and Urban
Development State of the Cities Report, 1999
42
CONCENTRATED POVERTY
43
Percentage of City Population Living in High
Poverty Neighborhoods, 1990
Source Paul Jargowsky, Poverty and Place,
Russell Sage, 1997 U.S. Census data.
44
City of Indianapolis Percent in Concentrated
Poverty 1990
Source Paul Jargowsky, Poverty and Place,
Russell Sage, 1997 U.S. Census data.
45
Marion County, Indiana 1998 Share of Welfare
Caseloads vs. Population
46
Balanced Growth
47
City Share of Metro Housing Permits for Cities
200-500 Square Miles, 1986-1998
Source Alexander Von Hoffman, Home Building
Patterns in Metropolitan Areas, August 1999 Draft
48
City Share of Metro Housing Permits Indianapolis,
1986-1998
Source Alexander Von Hoffman, Home Building
Patterns in Metropolitan Areas, August 1999 Draft
49
Vehicle Miles Travel Indianapolis Metropolitan
Area
VMT Growth Rate 1992-1997 30.87
Population Growth Rate 1990-1996 8.1
Source United States Census United States
Department of Transportation
50
Vehicle Miles Travel Ft. Wayne Metropolitan Area
VMT Growth Rate 1992-1997 17.28
Population Growth Rate 1990-1996 4.2
Source United States Census United States
Department of Transportation
51
Vehicle Miles Travel South Bend/Mishawaka
Metropolitan Area
VMT Growth Rate 1992-1997 26.49
Population Growth Rate 1990-1996 4.3
Source United States Census United States
Department of Transportation
52
Farms, Farmers, Farming
Farm Land as a Percent of States Total Land Area
Average Operator Age
1992 1997 52 53
68.0
Percentage with Farming as Principal Occupation
65.8
1992 1997 50.3 46.6
1992 1997
Source United States Department of Agriculture
53
How are states and the federal government
responding?
54
The New Metropolitics
  • Leaders of Older Communities
  • Political
  • Downtown Business
  • Civic
  • Community
  • Newly Developing Suburbs
  • Political Leaders
  • Environmentalists
  • Farmland Preservation Advocates
  • No Growth Citizens
  • Other
  • Regional Business Alliances
  • Regional Media
  • Religious Leaders

55
The New Metropolitan Agenda
1. Metropolitan Governance
2. Land Use Reform Acquisition of Open
Space
3. Smart Growth Infrastructure Spending
4. Tax Policy Fiscal Disparities
5. Access to Opportunity Welfare-to-Work
Workforce Development Housing
56
State Responses
57
State Responses Regional Governance
58
Georgia Regional Transportation Authority
Created by the State Legislature in 1999 to
combat air pollution, traffic congestion and
sprawl development
Authority currently lies only in the metro
Atlanta area which is currently out of compliance
with the Federal Clean Air Act. The Authority has
the power to move into other areas of the state
if and when they fall out of compliance with the
Federal regulations.
GRTA approval is required for major highway and
development projects that affect the metro
Atlanta region. Governments that do not cooperate
with GRTA face a cutoff of many state and
federal funds, including money for road-building.
59
State Responses Growth Management/Land Use
11 states
60
Urban Growth Boundaries
Requires the development of county growth plans
which must identify urban growth boundaries,
planned growth areas, and rural areas in each
county large enough to account for anticipated
growth for the next twenty years or risk losing
access to state transportation funds
61
State Responses Acquisition of Open Space
9 states passing state-wide ballot referenda in
1998
62
Passed in 1998.
Sets aside 1 Billion over 10 years to
permanently save a million acres of resource
lands.
Financed by State setting aside 98 million a
year of state sales tax revenues for 10 years and
the allocation of 1.0 billion in bond proceeds
to preserve open space and historic resources
Open Space Bond Referendum
16 Counties and 92 municipalities are now
authorized to dedicate a portion of their
property taxes or sell bonds to fund open space
and farmland preservation and/ or park
development and maintenance.
63
State Responses Smart Growth
3 states
64
Maryland
  • Targets major state funding (e.g.
    transportation , housing, state facilities)
    to Priority Funding Areas.
  • Priority areas include all municipalities,
    inner beltway areas, enterprise zones,
    industrial areas and new planned growth
    areas with water/ sewer.

SMART growth
65
State Responses Tax Sharing
66
Minnesota Fiscal Disparities Law
  • Allocates 40 of the growth in property tax
    revenues from commercial industrial development
    to a metropolitan tax base pool.
  • Funds in the pool are then redistributed to
    communities based on commercial tax capacity.
  • Narrows but does not eliminate fiscal
    disparities growing suburbs continue to have 25
    to 30 percent more tax base per household than do
    central cities and inner suburbs

67
The Federal Response
68
The Federal Response
TEA-21
Better America Bonds
Capital Gains Relief
Clean Air Act
69
Where do we go from here?
70
General Observations
  • State governments are key to set rules of
    development game
  • Metropolitan agenda is mutually consistent and
    reinforcing
  • Composition of metro coalitions varies state to
    state
  • Immediate point of policy intervention also
    varies
  • Not necessarily about consensus
  • Land use/environmental agenda will be most
    successful when coupled with urban reinvestment
    effort

71
Ten Next Steps for Regional and State Reforms
1. Fill empirical holes 2. Identify policy
reforms- top-down 3. Identify policy reforms-
bottom-up 4. Develop strategies for achieving
policy reform 5. Market disseminate ideas
6. Understand consumer/voter/business 7. Build
capacity of key constituencies 8. Support network
of key constituencies 9. Convene 10.
Cross-pollinate
72
The New Metropolitan Agenda
1. Metropolitan Governance
2. Land Use Reform Acquisition of Open
Space
3. Smart Growth Infrastructure Spending
4. Tax Policy Fiscal Disparities
5. Access to Opportunity Welfare-to-Work
Workforce Development Housing
73
Why not go out on a limb? Thats where the
fruit is.
  • -Will Rogers

74
www.brookings.edu/urban
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