Remarks%20before%20the%20Computing%20Research%20Association%20The%20Adequacy%20of%20the%20U.S.%20S

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Remarks before the Computing Research
AssociationThe Adequacy of the U.S. SE
WorkforceA QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVEOffshore
Outsourcing

• John Sargent
• Senior Policy Analyst
• U.S. Department of Commerce

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Alarm Bells

• the nation may likely face severe shortages in
  SET workers
• Land of Plenty, Commission on the Advancement
  of Women and Minorities in Science, Engineering,
  and Technology Development (CAWMSET)
• There is a quiet crisis building in the United
  States that stems from the gap between the
  nations growing need for scientists, engineers,
  and other technically skilled workers, and its
  production of them.
• The Quiet Crisis Falling Short in Producing
  American Scientific and Technical Talent,
  Building Engineering and Science Talent (BEST)
• U.S. need for the highest quality human
  capital in science, mathematics and engineering
  is not being met.
• Hart-Rudman Commission
• "Our 1998 study found a shortage of 346,000
  programmers, systems analysts and computer
  scientists."
• ITAA president Harris Miller
• "We are not training enough American scientists
  and engineers to retain our prosperity ...."
• American Scientist magazine, 2001
• a serious deficit of scientists and engineers
  resulting in an evaporating dominance.
• Dan Goldin, former NASA administrator, 2001

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Demand for SE Workers
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Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth Rates
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Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth in Numbers
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Aggregate IT Employment 1999-2002
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IT Occupational Employment 1999-2002
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Change in IT Occupational EmploymentNumber,
2001-2002
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Change in IT Occupational EmploymentPercentage,
2001-2002
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Salary Growth
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Salary Growth in IT Occupations 1999-2002
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Percent Salary Growth in IT Occupations
1999-2002, 2001-2002
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Unemployment Rates
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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational
Projections, 2002-2012Employment, Numbers
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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational
Projections, 2002-2012Employment Growth Rate
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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational
Projections, 2002-2012Employment Growth Numbers
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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational
Projections, 2002-2012Total Job Openings
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Occupational Distribution of Projected SE Job
Openings(new jobs plus net replacements)2002-201
2
70
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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational
Projections, 2002-2012Job Growth 2000-2010 vs.
2002-2012
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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational
Projections, 2002-2012Change in Growth
2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012
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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational
Projections, 2002-2012Projected IT Job Growth
2010 vs. 2012 Projections
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IT, Science and Engineering Occupational
Projections, 2002-2012Change in Total Openings
2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012
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SE Bachelors Degrees
Life Sciences Up...
...Engineering, Physical Sciences, and Math Down
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Engineering Bachelors DegreesHalf Empty or
Half Full?
or a 53 percent increase since 1976?
A 23 percent decline since 1985
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Both, depending on your perspective
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The Market PerspectiveDegree Production vs.
Projected Job Openings
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EngineeringDegrees Projected Job Openings
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Physical SciencesDegrees Projected Job Openings
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Mathematics and Computer ScienceDegrees
Projected Job Openings
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Biological and Agricultural SciencesDegrees
Projected Job Openings
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IT Education Training LandscapeHow IT Workers
Get and Maintain their Skills

• IT Bachelors Degrees
• IT-Related Minors
• Combined IT Bachelors/Masters Degree Programs
• IT-Related Masters of Science Programs
• Techno MBAs
• Two-Year IT Degrees at Community Colleges
• IT Certificate Programs
• Private, For-Profit Education and Training
  Institutions
• Vendor and Vendor-neutral IT Certification
• Federal, State and Regional IT Training
  Initiatives
• Boot Camps and Seminars
• Employer Programs
• On-Line, CD-ROM, Books
• The Churn

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Professional Level IT Workers Hold a Wide Array
of Science, Engineering and Other Degrees
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Possible Niche Areas of Need

• Emerging Disciplines
• Converging Disciplines
• Industries Affected by Past/Current Federal
  Demand
• University Professors in High Demand Disciplines
• Federal SE Employees Unique Challenges
• Industries with Past Workforce Shocks

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Challenge to the Community Action

• Amplify Market Signals
• Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary Institutions
• Post-Secondary Institutions Responsiveness to
  Market Demands
• Preparation for industry careers
• Technical skills in demand
• Soft and business skills
• Career Awareness in Middle, High School
• Dissemination of Occupational Data
• Demand, job characteristics, unemployment, etc.
• Improve Math and Science Education in K-12

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Challenge to the Community Action

• Math and Science Education in K-12
• Image of Scientists and Engineers
• SE Career Awareness in Middle, High School
• Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary Institutions
• Post-Secondary Institutions Responsiveness to
  Market Demands
• Industry Must Help Itself

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Challenges to Growing Domestic SE Workforce

• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in SE vs. Law,
  Business

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Challenges to Growing Domestic SE Workforce

• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in SE vs. Law,
  Business

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Challenges to Growing Domestic SE Workforce

• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in SE vs. Law,
  Business
• Attractiveness of Careers in SE vs. Law,
  Business
• Strong Emphasis by Other Nations, Cultures on SE
  Education
• Access to Foreign Labor in the U.S. (H-1B, L1)
• Access to Foreign Labor Abroad (Offshoringdirect
  and through contract)
• Significantly lower salary costs
• Pools of well-educated SE talent
• Improved national infrastructure, political
  stability
• Large Government, Industry Focus on Health RD

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Factors Supporting U.S. Ability to Grow Domestic
SE Workforce

• Premier Academic Research Institutions
• Elite Students Among Best in World
• Powerful Industrial Base, Potential Partners in
  SE Education and Training
• Money Talks!

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Contact Information

• John F. Sargent
• Senior Policy Analyst
• Office of Technology Policy, Technology
  Administration
• U.S. Department of Commerce
• 202-482-6185
• jsargent_at_ta.doc.gov
• www.ta.doc.gov

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Census Bureau Projections Thru 2100U.S.
Race/Ethnic Composition, numbers
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Census Bureau Projections Thru 2100U.S.
Race/Ethnic Composition, percent
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Bachelors Degrees Awarded, by Gender
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SE Bachelors Degrees, by Gender
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Womens Share of MEPS Bachelors Degrees Growing,
Still Comparatively Low
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Share of Bachelors Degrees in Each Field Earned
by Women, 2000
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Share of Total U.S. SE Bachelors Degrees
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SE Bachelors Degrees, by Race
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IT Occupational Growth Rate 5 Times Greater Than
Natural Scientists, Engineers
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Occupational Growth RatesIT vs. All Occupations
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SE Occupational Growth Dominated by Information
Technology Occupations
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Total Bachelors Degrees in Engineering, Physical
Sciences, Computer Science and Mathematics Stable
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Science and Engineering, MEPS as a Share of All
Bachelors Degrees
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Strong correlation between Federal RD
investments in MEPS and bachelors degree
production in MEPS fields
Federal RD, Non-Biomedical constant (1996)B
Federal RD, Non-Biomedical constant (1996)B
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Share of Total SE Degrees Earned by Non-Resident
Aliens, by Degree Level
56
U.S. Lags Other Nations in Share of 24-Year-Olds
With Natural Science, Engineering Degrees
Also The United States ranks 61st out of 63
nations in the share of SE degrees as a total
of all bachelors degrees.