Literature Review

1
Literature Review

• The Hype about Hydrogen

2
Overview

• The Hype about Hydrogen-Fact and Fiction in the
  Race to Save the Climate publ. 2004
• Main Themes
• Hydrogen isnt the quick technological fix it is
  cracked up to be. The hurdles are significant.
• Hydrogen for transportation is unlikely to have
  an impact before 2040.
• The climate cant wait that long.
• We should adopt already commercially available
  energy-efficient and renewable technologies now.
• Neither gov. policy, nor business investment
  should be based on the belief that FCVs will
  have medium term commercial success.

3
The Author

• Joseph J. Romm
• Involved with Hydrogen and FCV RD at the DOE
  during the Clinton Administration.
• Currently executive director of the Center for
  Energy and Climate Solutions
• Author of 2 books

4
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 1

• Why Hydrogen? Why Now?
• In the last ten years hydrogen RD has taken huge
  proportions (DOE funding from 1-2106 to
  1.2109 /year)
• Reasons
• Advances in PEM F/Cs-Reductions in cost.
• Growing energy security risks.
• Environmental risks.
• Advances in H2 production Technology from
  renewables.

5
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 2

• Fuel Cell Basics
• Presentation of different F/C types advantages
  and disadvantages
• Promise vs Performance Caution!
• People tend to be overoptimistic in the RD phase
• UTC in the mid 90s promised 40 efficiency for
  the PC25,sold it for 3000/kW and projected
  1500/kW by 2000.
• By 2003 measured efficiency was 35 and the cost
  was 4500/kW.
• DOE FC cost goals unrealistic.

6
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 3

• The path to Fuel Cell Commercialization
• The problem Who will buy F/Cs before their cost
  comes down dramatically?
• How will the reduction in cost be achieved
  without mass sales? (mass production RD cash
  inflow)
• The problem especially acute in the USA-cheap gas
  and electricity.

7
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 3

• The High-Reliability Distributed Generation
  Market (e.g. banks)
• This market is much smaller and growing much more
  slowly than has been widely touted
• A significant number of companies that need
  premium power, have a system that works well for
  them.
• New technology needs time to establish itself.

8
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 3

• The Residential Market(0.75kW)
• PEM unsuitable (Reformers, ?el, cost)
• SOFCs have unacceptably long start-ups (hours)
• The Cool Power Market (ultra clean energy for
  PR).
• CHPgthigh temperature F/Csgt continuous
  operation only.
• Few companies with such applications are willing
  to pay the extra cost.

9
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 3

• The enormous On-Site Generation Market.(sub MW)
• A mid-term prospect (as soon as F/C costs are
  down to 800-1300/kW)
• DoE studies have shown that the potential market
  is enormous
• Still, penetration will be difficult because
• The competition is tough (very mature
  technologies )
• Competition from a lower utilities bill
• Procrastination
• Regulatory barriers

10
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 3-4

• Hydrogen Production
• Although stationary FCs might have potential for
  the mid-term, to tackle oil demand and CO2
  emissions one needs to replace gas in
  transportation.
• Need for H2 production for car PEMs

11
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 4

• Natural Gas Steam Reforming.
• 4-5/kgr H2 equivalent to 1 gallon of gas.
• Low to no GHG-benefits
• Very expensive infrastructure
• Effect on NG prices?
• Much cheaper at large centralized facilities than
  at the filling station but then it has to be
  transported.

12
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 4

• Electrolysis.
• 7-9/kgr H2 at centralized facilities , 12/kgr
  H2 at the filling station but no transportation
  required.
• No GHG benefits until the grid is to a large
  extent CO2 free (decades).

13
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 4

• Coal.
• Most abundant Fossil Fuel (more than 300 years)
• Gasificationcombined cycleH2electricity.(Though
  still transportation required)
• The key term here is sequestration-Still in the
  early RD stage with many doubts that it is
  feasible.

14
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 4

• Biomass.
• With sequestration-CO2 reducer.
• Gasification or Pyrolysis
• 5-6.3/kg H2
• What fraction of land would be needed?
  Politically feasible?
• Transportation
• Is H2 the best use for biomass ? Biofuels?

15
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 4

• Nuclear.
• Thermochemical Water-Splitting.
• Safety?
• Waste?
• Transportation
• Cost

16
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 5

• Key Elements of a Hydrogen-Based Transportation
  System
• Bernard Bulkin, BP If H2 is going to make it in
  the mass market, it has to be available in 30-50
  o the retail network,the day the 1st mass
  produced FCV hits the showrooms
• 50.000-90.000 new stations-0.51012
  infrastructure costs

17
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 5

• On-board H2 storage
• LH2
• good grav. and vol. density
• 40 energy lossesgtmore GHG than gas.
• CH2
• Bad grav. vol. density
• Hydrides
• Good vol. density/Terrible grav.
• Suboptimal H2 release.

18
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 5

• H2 transportation
• TrucksLH2least expensive but 50 losses
• PipelinesCH2Extremely expensive (unless very
  high flow rate)
• Trailerscanisters of CH2Practical but expensive
  and energy intensive . A 40t truck carries 400kg
  of H2.For distancesgt300miles 40 losses.
• H2 Safety issues

19
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 5

• Key Elements of a Hydrogen-Based Transportation
  System
• Production Site
• On board (cancelled by the DOE)
• Centralized Leads to transportation problems.
• At the fuel station Leads to high cost, losses
  and safety issues

20
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 6

• Barriers
• Honda At least 10 years before FCV cost down to
  100.000
• DOE Future FCV at least 40-60 more expensive
  than ICE
• Fuel Cost at least 2xgas cost
• Infrastructure issues

21
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 6

• Possible Solutions
• H2 ICEs
• DO NOT solve the chicken and egg problem
• Less WTW, possibly more GHG, higher LCA costs
  than gas ICE
• Fleets
• Cost Range are more important
• AFV fleets failure in the 90s
• Mobile Utilities
• Where is the fuel going to come from?
• Lifetime, Cost and regulatory issues

22
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 7

• Global Warming and Scenarios for a Hydrogen
  Transition
• Evidence on the magnitude of global warming
  correlation to CO2 emissions.
• Time and money is limited
• The most easy/efficient way to reduce CO2 is
  needed.

23
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 8

• Coping with the Global Warming Century
• Which technology achieves the highest CO2
  reduction/ spent?
• The competition is getting tougher (clean ICEs,
  RES, energy saving technologies)
• In the mid-term H2 from NG-Gas. Hybrids have less
  CO2 emissions
• NG and RES used to make H2 for FCVs would
  achieve higher CO2 reduction at lower costs if
  used to displace coal plants

24
(No Transcript)
25
(No Transcript)
26
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 8

• Coping with the Global Warming Century
• The authors scenario for this century
• In the beginning,more hybrids,NG and RES
• Possibly sequestration and biofuels afterwards.
• In the end, we will be forced to switch to
  renewable H2 because of severe climate change.
• One way or another we wont avoid serious climate
  change effects.

27
Analytical Presentation-Chapter 10

• Conclusion-Choosing our Future
• What we should do
• Long term, conservative perspective on H2.
• Increase RD into clean energy Technologies.
• Start reducing emissions using low cost
  strategies
• Begin a national effort to use CHP
• Launch a national effort to use Electricity and
  gas more efficiently
• Phase in CO2 related standards for cars
• Prepare the public for the tough choices ahead

28
Commentary

• Generally well-stated and supported case.
• Not completely impartial.
• at times he leaves important information out.
  (e.g. power comparison in the tank instead of on
  the road)
• Exaggerations
• A quote is not always proof-2 graphs in the whole
  book.