SC 203 OUR ENERGY FUTURE-UPDATED PROGRESS IN TECHNOLOGY

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SC 203OUR ENERGY FUTURE-UPDATEDPROGRESS IN
TECHNOLOGY

• The SLATE Panel
• GEORGE HUME
• Jan. 23, 2008

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SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION APPROACH

• Brief review of the Situation or Status as
  Presented last year, then Identify Significant
  Changes/Progress made since
• Energy Subject Areas to be Covered
• Hydropower - Nuclear Energy
• Solar - Waves and Tide
• Wind - Alternative Fuel
• Coal
• Advances of Technologies for Automobile Energy
  Use and Environmental compatibility

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Hydropower

• Of the renewable energy sources that generate
  electricity, hydropower is the most often used.
  It accounted for 9 percent of total U.S.
  electricity generation and 75 percent of
  generation from renewables in 2004
• Over one-half of the total U.S. hydroelectric
  capacity for electricity generation is
  concentrated in three States (Washington,
  California and Oregon) with approximately 27
  percent in Washington, the location of the
  Nations largest hydroelectric facility the
  Grand Coulee Dam

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World-wide, about 20 of all electricity is
generated by hydropower.
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Trends Re Hydropower Share of total
electricity generation by hydropower could
decline to 5.3 by 2030. (DOE, Energy Info.
Admin.) - Very limited locations remain for
major hydro dams, small yes - Public concern
about environmental impacts of dams on
fisheries and wildlife habitat. - Climate
changes could impact water supply by reduced rain
and snowfall R and D is underway to
improve hydropower technology - Improve fish
survival rates - improve efficiency of generation
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Solar Photovoltaic Electricity

• Silicon wafers doped to form photovoltaic cells
• Power is free, but
• Large wafers still thick and crystal grown as
  chips, so still expensive
• Cost still 3 to 10 times as expensive as fossil
  fuel power
• Efficiency only 10 to 15, so large areas needed
• Daily and yearly average only 1/5 of maximum
  power capacity installed
• Dont need storage if send excess power back over
  the grid
• Storage could be in charging car batteries or in
  hydrogen fuel, or
• Concentrate on using more energy during the
  daytime
• Silicon valley investigating thin film disk
  technology to make cheaper

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Californias Million Solar Roofs

• California SB1 (Senate Bill 1) to provide rebates
  to equip solar power installations
• Goal is 3 gigawatts solar by 2017
• This could be 3 kw/household, at 9/watt is
  27,000/household
• Companies rebated per kwh generated
• New homes must offer solar option by 2011
• 500,000 more homes can be added to generating
  electricity into the power network
• 2.8 billion CA cost, 30 Federal rebate, up to
  18 billion total cost, but for less average
  electricity than a nuclear plant at 2-3 billion.
• Could only nearly pay if it brings down costs
  through economies of scale,
• or if it leads to technological breakthrough
  through research and competition
• Only 100 million for solar water heating

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U. S. Solar Resources
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U. S. Tracking Mirror Solar
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Solar Trough Mirrors

• Suitable For Large Systems
• Grid-connected Power
• 30-200 MW size
• Heats mineral oil to hundreds of degrees
• Then vaporizes a fluid to drive a turbine

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Dish with Sterling Engine

• Modular
• Remote Applications
• Demonstration Installations
• High Efficiency
• Conventional Construction
• Heat expands gas and drives piston

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Solar Tower

• Suitable For Large Systems
• Grid-connected Power
• 30-200 MW size
• Potentially Lower Cost
• Potentially Efficient Thermal Storage
• Molten Salt heated, averages out solar input
• Can store heat overnight

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Cost Of Energy(Max Lechtman)

• Trough Dish/Engine Tower
• 2000 11.8 17.9 13.6
• 2010 7.6 6.1 5.2
• 2020 7.2 5.5 4.2
• 2030 6.8 5.2 4.2
• Cents/kWh in 1997

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WIND GENERATION OF ELECTRICAL POWER
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WIND POWER

• The most promising near-term renewable resource
• U.S. installed capacity growing about 25 per
  year
• Intermittent, irregular supply
• Value depends on installed capacity, site
  specific capacity factor, and timing of
  generation (summer is more valuable than winter)
• At greater than 20 of a grids supply, managing
  the grid becomes difficult and expensive.
• Issue What will happen when the subsidies
  vanish?

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World Wind Capacity. Total now 74 Gigawatts
worldwide, with 65 in Europe. Market growing at
32 a year. 3.3 of European electricity now
from wind. 1 of U.S. electricity.
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Wind Generation Physics

• Power proportional to the cube of the wind
  velocity.
• (v² from Bernoulli pressure for force on
  wingshaped propeller, times a distance per second
  of rotating propeller, which is proportional to
  v.)
• Most of energy from small bursts.
• ½ of energy comes in 15 of the time.
• Average capacity factor is 35 of the maximum.
• Wind turbines best spaced 3-5 times the rotor
  diameter perpendicular to the wind, and 5-10
  times the diameter parallel to the wind.

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Virginias Switzerland Wind Power Proposal

• 39 towers of 400 feet height
• 2 million per tower at 1 megawatt
• So about a 40 megawatt peak project
• Enough power for 15,000 homes x
• 12,000 kwh/yr / 9,000 hours/year
• 20 million watts average
• Implies a 50 duty cycle
• To compare to a 1 gigawatt nuclear plant, would
  require 50 such projects, or about 2,000 wind
  towers and 2 billion.

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England, Germany, Netherlands10 Gigawatt
Foundation Project

• Proposal for 2,000 wind turbines of 5 megawatts
  each to make 10 gigawatts
• Could power more than 8 million homes
• Would cover 3,000 square kilometers
• In the southern North Sea

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TECHNOLOGIES

• Horizontal axis fans are the best proven
  technologies
• Windmills have been in use since the Middle Ages
• New designs are proliferating
• Issues
• Mechanisms are complex and expensive to maintain
• Large blades for efficient units are expensive to
  make and transport
• Grid connection issues seem to be solved

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SOME GENERAL ATTRIBUTES

• Best where there is reliable strong wind U.S.
  midwest and southwest
• Adaptable to either centralized (wind farm) or
  decentralized siting
• Siting issues Marthas Vineyard Nantucket
• Aesthetics, visibility NIMBY
• Noise
• Electromagnetic interference
• Banned within 1.5 miles of shipping/ferry lanes
• Wild life fatalities California, West Virginia
• Low flying, migratory song birds (Altamount Pass)
• Bats

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WINDPOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE UNITED STATES

• Battelle estimate 20 of U.S. electricity demand
  with siting constraints
• DOE goal to meet 6 of U.S. demand by 2020
• Unconstrained potential equivalent to operating
  1500 1000MWe nuclear or coal plants
• States potential North Dakota, Texas, Kansas,
  South Dakota, MontanaCalifornia is 17th
• North Dakota could supply 25 of current U.S.
  electricity demand need a major growth of
  electric (or hydrogen?) transmission capacity

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WINDPOWER PROSPECTS

• Big potential market world capacity growing at
  30 per year
• Annual equipment sales 2 billion in 2005
• Project financing for renewables in 2005
• Wind Power 3.5 billion
• Solar Photovoltaic 2.2 billion
• All other 1.25 billion
• Major companies are involved
• General Electric
• British Petroleum
• Goldman Sachs
• J P Morgan chase
• Siemens AG

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NUCLEAR POWER and WASTE MANAGEMENT

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CONTEXT OF OUR STUDY

• Nuclear power (fission) is an economically viable
  energy source
• PROBLEM Many U.S. citizens have a negative
  attitude toward nuclear power. The three Ws
  Worries, Waste and Weapons.
• QUESTION What must be done to address the
  problem so that we can employ nuclear power to
• Meet our increasing demand for electric power?
• Reduce our greenhouse gas emissions?

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STATUS OF WORLD NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION (as of
June 2006)
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SOME IDEAS FOR ALTERNATIVE DESIGN APPROACHES

• Use of hybrid fuel assemblies containing both
  uranium and Thorium
• - More complex at construction but keeps most
  of fuel in reactor longer and produces less toxic
  waste
• Use of small, self-contained, factory built
  reactors about size of railroad car.
• Produces enough electricity for 35,000 homes

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PROGRAMS THAT WILL IMPACT the FUTURE OF NUCLEAR
POWER

• Nuclear Power 2010 Government-industry cost
  sharing effort to identify sites, develop new
  plant technologies and demo. untested regulatory
  procedures
• Global Nuclear Energy Partnership US and other
  advanced nations develop fuel market, spent fuel
  recycling technology and reduce proliferation
  risks
• Generation IV International initiative to
  develop 6 next-generation reactors that are
  safer, more reliable, more cost-effective, and
  more proliferation resistant.
• ITER International RD project to demo.
  Scientific and technical feasibility of
  commercial fusion power.

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WAVES and TIDES

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POWER FROM TIDES AND CURRENTS

• Technical Approaches
• Tidal dams (barrages)
• Tidal fences
• Turbine fields
• Common features
• Generate electricity using water driven fans or
  turbines
• Low operating costs if avoid storm
  damage/biofouling
• High construction costs
• Various negative impacts on marine environment

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TIDAL BARRAGES

• Dams across estuaries with gates to control water
  flow and hydroturbine generators to produce
  electricity
• Depend on minimum tidal difference of 16
  feetperhaps 40 sites in the world
• The LaRance facility has operated reliably for
  many years
• Possible sites in Pacific Northwest and Atlantic
  Northeast
• Cause silting, destroy wetlands and interfere
  with fish migrations
• Probably of limited potential for the U.S.

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AXIAL FLOW HYDRO TURBINES

• Technology is in very early stage
• Installations look like underwater wind farms
• Ideally in rivers or near shore at depths of
  60-100ft
• High capital cost 4300/KWe
• U.S. potential is speculative equivalent to 12
  to 170 coal-fired (1000MWe) plants?
• Demonstration project in Manhattans East River6
  turbines, 200KWe in 2006

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POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL TURBINES IN US

• Tidal locations (120) 1200 MWe
• Riverine locations 12,500-170,000 MWe
• Gulf Stream 685,000 MWe
• Fragmented industry with no major industrial
  firms
• Demonstration in 2006 Manhattans East River, 6
  turbines, 35 rpm, 200 KWe by Verdant Power
• For discussion see
• Proceedings of the Hydrokinetic and Wave
  Energy Technologies Technical and Environmental
  Issues Workshop Oct. 26-28, 2005
• http//hydropower.inl.gov/

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WAVE ENERGY

• Several technical approaches
• Floats or pitching devices
• Oscillating water columns
• Wave surge focusing devices
• Demonstration installations in Great Britain
  (oscillating water column) and off Portuguese
  coast (floats)
• Issues
• Storm damage
• Biofouling
• Grid connection and power conditioning
• Wave damping (surfers)
• Potential 7 of current U.S. electricity demand
  (EPRI)

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WAVE ENERGYTECHNICAL APPROACHES

• Floats or pitching devices wave action moves
  two or more bodies relative to one
  anothervarious devices generate power energy
  storage in supercapacitors since voltage/current
  are wildly erratic
• Oscillating water columns wave action drives
  air in and out of columnpower is generated by an
  air turbine in the column
• Wave surge or focusing devices wave action
  drives water up a channel into a reservoirpower
  is generated by hydro turbines during outflow
  from reservoir

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WAVE ENERGY POTENTIAL

• Designs range from distributed generation to
  large scale power plants
• Susceptibility to storm damage and biofouling are
  issues
• Power conditioning and grid connection are also
  issues
• EPRI estimate at 60 m off US coast the average
  wave power is 2100TWH/Year
• Could generate 7 of current US electricity
  demand by capturing 20 of the total wave energy
  at 50 efficiency.

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TECHNOLOGY TO PERMIT SOME CONTINUED USE OF COAL

• Supply of residual coal and large investment in
  legacy generation plants suggest continued major
  use
• Advanced clean coal technologies supercritical,
  ultra-supercritical, adv. Pulverized coal
  combustion, circulating fluidized bed, and
  integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).
• Coal and utility industries are working with DOE
  and EPRI on clean coal power projects
• Clean Coal Power Initiative (CCPI) - cost-share
  on demo projects
• FutureGen Project- build first coal
  based-emissions free gen, plant
• Coal Fleet for Tomorrow-work on IGCC and adv.
  Plant designs
• CO2 Capture Pilot- test of a capture plant
  prototype in Wisconsin

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NEW NATIONAL LAWS THAT RELATE TO BIO. ALTERNATIVE
FUELS

• The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
  (signed in late Dec. 2007)
• - Creates Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that
  requires
• Production of 36 billion gallons of renewable
  fuels by 2022
• That includes 21 billion gallons of adv. Biofuels
  ( cellulosic biofuels)
• Biofuels to be 20 of road-transportation fuels
  by 202
• This requirement is a MAJOR challenge because
• Total biofuel production in 2007 was only about
  4.7 billion gallons
• There is still NO commercial production of
  cellulosic ethanol

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COMPARATIVE COSTS TO REDUCE FOSSIL FUEL USE AND
GHG WITH BIOFUELS
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RESEARCH AREAS RELATED TO ADVANCING ALTERNATIVE
FUELS

• Ethanol - use genomics and synthetic biology to
  improve ethanol production, improve pretreatment
  and enzymes for cellulosic ethanol, learn from
  Termite guts, etc.
• Butanol -engineer microbes that can convert sugar
  from various feedstocks into butanol
• Waste to Fuel - Possible military use of a
  gasifier and fuel reactor to convert any carbon
  containing material into a mix of carbon monoxide
  and hydrogen
• Carbon Dioxide to Fuel - reversing combustion
  could lead to hydrogen, methanol and gasoline.
• Fischer-Tropsch liquid fuel from coal.

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Conclusions

• All renewable energy is local Adapt to locally
  available sources of renewable energy
• Energy conservation is still the cheapest form of
  making energy available
• In California, solar water heating is the next
  cheapest source of energy
• Hydro should be maintained
• Solar arrays are efficient and should be
  supported
• Wind power is about the cost of nuclear. Have to
  find the right location. Siting a problem with
  views, noise, birds.
• Nuclear power is omitted from renewable, but
  should be included as it also is non-polluting
  for greenhouse gases.
• Solar photovoltaic needs more research and
  improvement, and is currently a wasteful
  investment.

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HYBRIDS as an EXAMPLE of ADVANCED TECH. For AUTOS

• What are they? How are they different?
• Why should we be interested?
• What are their primary characteristics?
• What is the situation on Plug-In Hybrids?
• What may be future trends?
• George Hume, OLLI _at_ UCI
• November 2007

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DEFINITION AND BACKGROUND OF HYBRIDS

• DEFINITION A hybrid is a vehicle that uses
  two or more distinct power or fuel sources. Often
  the vehicles use a combination of internal
  combustion engines and electric motors.
• BACKGROUND
• The concepts and designs for hybrids have TRUE
  or
• been developed in just the last decade.
  FALSE

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WHY IS THERE A MARKET PLACE FOR HYBRID AUTOS?

• Most conventionally powered autos are
  inefficient in use of energy and are significant
  producers of emissions.
• - only about 20 hp is needed to drive on
  level road at 60 mph
• - if I have a 200 hp engine, what are the
  other 180 doing?
• helped accelerate the car from stop to 60 mph
  available to help accelerate for
  passing or for hills
• powering accessories eg. AC. PS,
  Entertainment, etc.
• consuming significant amounts of gasoline
• may have contributed to a hp one upmanship
  debate

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TYPES OF HYBRID AUTOS

• Overall type categories
• MILD HYBRIDS - Essentially conventional vehicles
  with oversized starter motors allowing the engine
  to be turned off whenever the vehicle is
  coasting, braking or stopped, yet restart quickly
  and smoothly.
• FULL HYBRIDS - Engine and motor configurations
  specifically designed improve fuel mileage and
  reduce pollution - a true hybrid. Categories
  include Serial, Parallel, and Series-Parallel.

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COMPARISON OF CURRENT HYBRIDS
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DEFINITION OF A PLUG-IN HYBRID

• A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is
  defined as any hybrid electric vehicle which
  contains at least (1) a battery storage system
  of 4 Kwh or more, used to power the motion of the
  vehicle (2) a means of recharging that battery
  system from an external source of electricity
  and (3) an ability to drive at least ten miles in
  all-electric mode, and consume no gasoline.
  (source IEEE position
  statement)
• The US Dept. of Energy (DOE) will provide nearly
  20M to further development of advanced batteries
  for PHEVs. DOE goals include making PHEVs
  cost-competitive by 2014 and ready for
  commercialization by 2016.
  
• 
  (source DOE Media Release dated 9/25/07)

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The Plug-In Hybrid (PHEV) Situation

• Currently, much public interest since PHEVs seem
  like potentially a nearly ideal solution.
• Allows us to keep much of our driving lifestyle
• No vehicle pollution or fossil fuel consumption
• Recharge battery with green (solar,wind,nuc.)
  power But battery technology currently doesnt
  support the need
• Availability of green electrical power sources
  and integration of PHEVs with power system pending

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PRIUS PHEV at UC DAVIS

• Modified to recharge from 110 v outlet
• Can travel 20 miles on battery only and get 100
  mpg in combined gas-electric mode
• Will be test driven by up to 100 N. Calif.
  Families over next 2 years to gather data on
  their attitudes and preferences
• Toyota plans to market a PHEV in 2010