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Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

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Title: Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin


1
Future coral reef habitat marginality temporal
and spatial effects of climate change in the
Pacific basin   John Guinotte, J. A. Kleypas,
R.W. Buddemeier
Preview of observed and modeled maximum monthly
SST values Observed, Reynolds max monthly SST
averaged over the decades 1982-1991 and
1992-2001 Modeled, NCAR coupled GCM generating
values and differences for an 1870 preindustrial
control run and decadal averages for 2000-2009,
2010-2019, 2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049,
2050-2059, 2060-2069. Displayed, model
differences using the 82-91 Reynolds as the base
2
Figure 1. Emission Scenario Models (IPCC 2000)
for the time course of atmospheric CO2. Scenario
B2 was used for the calculations presented in
this paper
3
Figure 2a. Reynolds maximum monthly SST 1982-1991
Figure 2b. Reynolds maximum monthly SST 1992-2001
4
Figure 2c. 2000-2009 projected maximum monthly
SST (pCO2375)
Figure 2d. 2010-2019 projected maximum monthly
SST (pCO2387)
5
Figure 2e. 2020-2029 projected maximum monthly
SST (pCO2415)
Figure 2f. 2030-2039 projected maximum monthly
SST (pCO2437)
6
Figure 2g. 2040-2049 projected maximum monthly
SST (pCO2465)
Figure 2h. 2050-2059 projected maximum monthly
SST (pCO2492)
7
Figure 2e. 2060-2069 projected maximum monthly
SST (pCO2517)
8
Figure 3a. Preindustrial aragonite saturation
state (pCO2280)
Figure 3b. 2000-2009 aragonite saturation state
(pCO2375)
9
Figure 3c. 2010-2019 aragonite saturation state
(pCO2387)
Figure 3d. 2020-2029 aragonite saturation state
(pCO2415)
10
Figure 3e. 2030-2039 aragonite saturation state
(pCO2437)
Figure 3f. 2040-2049 aragonite saturation state
(pCO2465)
11
Figure 3g. 2050-2059 aragonite saturation state
(pCO2492)
Figure 3h. 2060-2069 aragonite saturation state
(pCO2517)
12
Figure 4a. Preindustrial marginality risk and
2060-2069 projected expansion of 18.4 deg
isotherm in green.
Figure 4b. 2000-2009 projected marginality risk
(pCO2375)
13
Figure 4c. 2010-2019 projected marginality risk
(pCO2387)
Figure 4d. 2020-2029 projected marginality risk
(pCO2415)
14
Figure 4e. 2030-2039 projected marginality risk
(pCO2437)
Figure 4f. 2040-2049 projected marginality risk
(pCO2465)
15
Figure 4g. 2050-2059 projected marginality risk
(pCO2492)
Figure 4e. 2060-2069 projected marginality risk
(pCO2517)
16
Global clines in species richness of corals
(Roberts et al. 2002)
17
Generic richness of hermatypic corals. Contours
show max number of genera likely to be found.
(Veron, 1986)
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