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Locations of Coral Reef Bleaching

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Locations of Coral Reef Bleaching. BLEACHING OF CORAL REEFS BY OCEAN TEMPS 85deg F (29 deg C) ... The increase in growing season length over the last 50 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Locations of Coral Reef Bleaching


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Locations of Coral Reef Bleaching
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BLEACHING OF CORAL REEFS BY OCEAN TEMPS gt 85deg F
(29 deg C)
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Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton,
Beaubien and Freeland I.J.Biomet 4453-59, 2000
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The increase in growing season length over the
last 50 years averaged for eight stations in
Alaska having the longest and most consistent
temperature records.
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Birch Decline 1930-1960 and thaw-refreeze zone
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Whats Going On?
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Climate Change and Other Environmental
Stress impacts on North American Forests and
Rangelands
Presented to the North American Forestry
Commission
October, 2006
Steven McNulty, USDA FS Roger Cox, NRC Allen R.
Riebau, USDA FS Douglas G. Fox, CSU Gonzalez
Vicente, CONAFOR
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400,000 Years of Antarctic CO2 and Temperature
Change
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2001
16
Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
17
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
18
Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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What Will Happen Next?
Presented in Order from Most to Least Likely
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Certain change
Atmospheric CO2 will continue to increase
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Extremely Likely
Water and air temperature will continue to
increase
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Simulations of the response to natural forcings
alone do not explain the warming in the second
half of the century SPM
Stott et al, Science 2000
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..model estimates that take into account both
greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are
consistent with observations over this period
SPM
Stott et al, Science 2000
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Management Strategy for Coping with Increased Sea
Level Rise
Coastal forests will be inundated and coastal
beach erosion will increase. Forest
managers should work with land owners at a local
scale to plant mangroves and other soil
retention vegetation to delay terrestrial loss
for a long as reasonably possible.
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Likely Impacts
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Changing Patterns in Wildfire Occurrence
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Large scale (gt 400 ac) Wildfires and Air
Temperature
From Westerling et al. 2005
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Management Strategy for Coping with Increased
Wild Fire
Manage for and encourage more fire tolerant
grass and tree species
Increase public education and preparedness
regarding wild fire prevention and individual
preparation and control
Compared to climatic drivers, fuel reduction
control measures will be largely ineffectual
36
Likely Impacts
Inter-annual precipitation variability and soil
erosion
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Percent of the continental USA with a much above
normal proportion of total annual precipitation
from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or
50.8mm)
BW 7
Karl et al. 1996
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Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Management Strategy for Coping with Increased
Soil Erosion
Continue to encourage standard soil erosion
control practices such as contour plowing,
winter cropping, shelter belts, and buffer strips
Relocate trails away from streams
Use bridge mats and culverts at stream crossings
41
Likely Impacts
Changes in Productivity and Economic Value
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Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 2040 No Climate
Change Baseline
gt 25 DECLINE 5-25 DECLINE lt5
CHANGE 5-25 INCREASE
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Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley
Climate Change
5-25 DECLINE lt5 CHANGE 5-25
INCREASE
46
Management Strategy for Coping with Changing
Rangeland and Forest Productivity
Work with local land owners to examine
alternative crops (e.g., shift from red pine to
loblolly pine plantations or from corn to wheat)
as climate shifts occur
Examine options for changing management strategy
for exists crops (e.g., wider tree
planting, fewer head per acre)
47
Less Likely Impacts
Gradual Ecosystem Shifts
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American beech
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Sugar maple
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Loblolly pine
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Sweetgum
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Less Likely Impacts
Increasing western North American water crisis
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Management Strategy for Coping with Water Stress
Largely a agricultural issue. Irrigation is the
largest single user of water. Shifting to a drip
irrigation system will greatly reduce water
stress .
Large scale, sustained reductions in grasses or
trees at a level sufficient to significantly
increase water availability is neither
economically or technically practical
61
Unknown Impacts of Climate Change
Integrated stress impacts
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Example of Critical Load Calculated for N Across
Canada
2004 Canadian Acid Deposition Science Assessment
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Stress interactions on ecosystems
Elevated nitrogen deposition Causing altered tree
physiology
Critical Load
Climate Change Reduces N demand, changes forest
composition
Fire Reduces N demand, changes forest
composition
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How a different critical nitrogen load could be
determined within the same ecosystem
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Management Strategy for Coping with Water Stress
None. More research is needed before effective
management strategies could be developed
67
Potential Extreme Consequences (a.k.a. Armageddon
Scenarios)
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Gradual or Abrupt Loss of the Thermohaline to
Fresh Water Inputs
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Thermohaline ocean Circulation Belt
Jayne Doucette, WHOI
70
Jayne Doucette, WHOI
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Carbon Dioxide Loss from tundra thaw triggering
a run-away positive feedback between air
temperature and tundra peat decomposition.
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Conclusions
There is much we understand about climate
change and the impacts it is having and will
continue to have on North American rangelands and
forests.
There are also management strategies that can be
used to minimize some of the negative impacts of
climate change
However, while we have great confidence in the
direction of climate change, there remains
uncertainly regarding the rate and ultimate level
of climate change. Much of this uncertainty is
due to the uncertainty of society to
address future green house gas emissions.
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