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Topic 6 Commodities


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Title: Topic 6 Commodities

Topic 6 Commodities
  • A Space
  • B Minerals
  • C Food
  • D Water

Conditions of Usage
  • For personal and classroom use only
  • Excludes any other form of communication such as
    conference presentations, published reports and
  • No modification and redistribution permitted
  • Cannot be published, in whole or in part, in any
    form (printed or electronic) and on any media
    without consent.
  • Citation
  • Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics
    Geography, Hofstra University.

  • Commodities
  • Resources that can be consumed
  • Accumulated (some perishable).
  • Exchanged.
  • Purchased.
  • Fixed commodities
  • Commodities that cannot be transferred (except
  • Land, mining, logging and fishing rights.
  • Value derived from utility and potential rate of
  • Bulk commodities
  • Commodities that can be transferred.
  • Grains, metals, livestock, oil, cotton, coffee,
    sugar and cocoa.
  • Value derived from utility, supply and demand
    (market price).
  • Energy will be the object of Topic 7.

  • Fluctuations in commodity prices
  • Tend to be very volatile.
  • Major reasons
  • It takes time (sometimes years) to bring new
  • Finding new resource deposits.
  • Going through regulatory hurdles (red tape).
  • Investing in equipment / extraction.
  • Substitution effect
  • Takes year to find more cost effective
    substitutes or alternatives.
  • Higher the price, the more attractive the
  • Booms often end into busts
  • Booms attract over-investment leading to
  • Overcapacity deflates prices.

  • Commodity Chains
  • Integrated network of production, trade and
    service activities.
  • Make products available to consumers.
  • Gather resources, transform them in parts and
    products and, finally, distribute manufactured
    goods to markets.
  • Covers all the stages in a supply chain
  • Transformation of raw materials.
  • Intermediate manufacturing stages.
  • Delivery of a finished good to a market.

Cereals Commodity Chain
Processing Facility
Distribution and Retailing
Packaged Cereal
Wood Pulp
Packaged Cereal
Wood Pulp Mfg
Label Mfg
Wood Pulp
A. Space
  • 1. Context
  • 2. Seas
  • 3. Forests
  • 4. Human Occupation

1. Context
  • Competition for space
  • Various uses of nature are competing for space.
  • Biologically productive areas on the planet are
    the most desirable locations.
  • Mutually exclusive uses of nature
  • Land used for wheat production cannot be used for
    roads, forests or grazing, and vice versa.
  • The issue is that humans almost always win.
  • Common transformations
  • Natural to agricultural deforestation.
  • Agricultural to urban conversion.

1. Context
  • Main categories
  • The Earth has a surface area of 51 billion
  • 197 million square miles.
  • 36.3 billion are sea (71) and 14.7 billion are
    land (29).
  • 8.3 billion hectares (16) of the land area are
    biologically productive
  • The most valuable.
  • 6.4 billion hectares (13) are marginally
    productive or unproductive
  • Covered by ice.
  • Unsuitable soil conditions or lack of water.

1. Historical Global Land Use Change (in billions)
2. Seas
  • Overview
  • Covers 36.3 billion hectares (141 million square
  • 6 hectares per person (0.023 square miles).
  • 8 account for over 95 of the seas ecological
  • Marine production is already harvested to the
  • Provide approximately 18 kilogram of fish per
    capita per year.
  • 7 of humanitys food supply.
  • 90 of the large predatory fishes are gone (tuna,
    cod swordfish).
  • Swordfish
  • From average size of 300 pounds to 90 pounds.
  • Measuring the ecological activity of the sea
  • Surface determines its productivity.
  • Capturing of solar energy and the gas exchanges
    with the atmosphere are proportional to the
  • Consumed fish that people fancy are high up in
    the food chain, the food gains from sea space
    remain limited.

3. Forests
  • Overview
  • Farmed or natural forests that can yield timber
  • Environmental functions
  • Erosion prevention.
  • Climate stability.
  • Maintenance of hydrological cycles.
  • Sustaining ecological systems.
  • 3.44 billion hectares covering our planet.
  • 0.6 hectares per capita world-wide.
  • The world has almost lost half of its original
    forest cover
  • 62 million km2 (1900) to 33 million (1995).
  • Most of if was destroyed over the last 30 years.
  • Forests left occupy ecologically less productive
    land with exception of some few remaining
    inaccessible jungle areas.

Changes in the Worlds Forest Cover
Forest Cover by Region, Mid-1990s (in 1,000
square km)
Growing economies and consumption. Population
growth and demand for new land. Bad economic
policies that promote the overexploitation of
forests. Corruption and illegal trade. Poverty
and landlessness.
3. Forests
  • Fossil Energy Land (Carbon sink)
  • Land that should be reserved for CO2 absorption.
  • Little area is set aside to absorb CO2.
  • Neither the biochemical energy of the used fossil
    fuel is replaced nor its waste products absorbed.
  • Can also be defined as a carbon sink.
  • Humanity is living off nature's capital rather
    than its interests.
  • Using fossil fuel based products or burning
    fossil fuels can release toxic pollutants.
  • Potential of using the oceans to store CO2 at
    great depths.

3. Forests
  • Frontier Forests
  • Original forest cover remains with large tracts
    of relatively undisturbed forest
  • Defined as the frontier forest.
  • 40 of forest on Earth qualifies as frontier
  • Russia, Canada, and Brazil house almost 70 of
    the worlds remaining frontier forest.
  • 39 of Earths remaining frontier forest is
    threatened by logging, agricultural clearing, and
    other human activity.
  • 3 of the worlds frontier forest falls entirely
    within the temperate zone.
  • Characterized by moderate climate, including much
    of the U.S and Europe.

3. Frontier Forests as Share of Total Remaining
Forests (in ), mid 1990s
4. Human Occupation
  • Arable land (cropland)
  • Land suitable for agriculture.
  • Ecologically speaking the most productive land.
  • Location / regional conditions imply different
    types of suitability
  • Days without freezing.
  • Average temperature.
  • Precipitations.
  • Type of soil.
  • 1.4 billion hectares of arable land
  • Land surface of 13.0 billion hectares.
  • Only 11 of the land is thus arable.
  • Additional 3.5 billion hectares of pasture land.
  • 10 million hectares per year lost to degradation.
  • Less than 0.25 hectares per capita world-wide.

Soils Constraints on Agriculture
Land Suitability for Cereal Cultivation
4. Human Occupation
  • Pasture
  • Grazing land for dairy and cattle farming.
  • Most of the 3.35 billion hectares of pasture, or
    0.6 hectares per person, are significantly less
    productive than arable land.
  • Potential for accumulating biomass is much lower.
  • Expansion of pastures main cause of shrinking
    forest areas.
  • Built-up areas
  • Host human settlements and roads.
  • Extend approximately 0.03 hectares per capita
  • Most human settlements are located in the most
    fertile areas
  • Built-up land often leads to the irrevocable loss
    of prime arable land.
  • From 1975 to 2005, the average size of new
    single-family homes grew by 48 (1,645 square
    feet to 2,434 sq. ft.)

Trends in Global Agricultural Land Use, 1965-1997
(in millions of hectares)
B. Minerals
  • 1. Types of Minerals
  • 2. Mineral Reserves, Resources and Distribution

1. Types of Minerals
  • Mineral resources
  • Inorganic substances that are extracted from the
    earths crust.
  • Their presence is the outcome of geological
  • The value is derived from the utility of the
  • Rare minerals used as a currency (gold, silver,
    diamonds, etc.).
  • Construction materials.
  • Metals that can be shaped to numerous uses.
  • Energy (fossil fuels, uranium).
  • Fertilizers.
  • Concentrations of minerals in particular

1. Types of Minerals
  • Energy minerals
  • Oil, gas, coal, fissionable minerals such as
  • Ferrous minerals
  • Iron ore and other elements mainly used as
    ferro-alloys, such as manganese, silicon, nickel,
    cobalt, and tungsten.
  • Non-ferrous metals
  • Gold, silver, copper, aluminum (from bauxite),
    lead, zinc, tin, and platinum.
  • Non-metallic minerals
  • Construction Limestone, gypsum, sand, gravel,
    and stone.
  • Fertilizers Phosphorus, potassium, sulfur, and
  • Salt de-icing, chemicals (chlorine and sodium)
    and condiment.

2. Mineral Reserves, Resources and Distribution
  • Mineral reserves
  • Minerals recoverable from identified deposits
    under current technologies and economic
  • Can change over time as technological advances
    make extraction more economically feasible.
  • Mineral resources
  • Reserves and other sources of the mineral that
    may eventually become available.
  • Known deposits that are not currently profitably
  • Undiscovered deposits that may be assumed to
    exist due to knowledge of a region's geological
  • Fixed quantity, unlike reserves.

Technological Development
Mineral reserves
Economic Development
Mineral resources
Mineral Reserves, Resources and Distribution
Unbalanced consumption and extraction are not
commonly located at the same place
Minerals Production and Intensity of Use,
World Silver Production (M of ounces), 1931-2004
C. Food
  • 1. Food Models
  • 2. Food Production, Consumption and Trade
  • 3. The Green Revolution
  • 4. Agricultural Output and the Environment

1. Food Models
  • The human diet
  • Minimum caloric requirement
  • 2,700 calories for men and 2,000 calories for
  • Diet is organized along models.
  • Result of the socio-economic environment of the
  • About 15 plants and 8 animal species supply 90
    of food.
  • Commonality of some food components in different
    parts of the world.
  • Related to an average daily calorie intake.
  • Linked to agricultural practices, but also to
    agribusiness and food processing industries.
  • Development level and the distribution of
    agricultural production
  • Developed economies industrial techniques are
    increasingly present in the diet.
  • Third World countries the diet remains often
    very simple and did not change for several
    hundred of years.

1. Global Food Insecurity
Annual Per Capita Consumption of Livestock
Products in Selected Countries, 1998 (in
1. Food Models
  • Malnutrition
  • Imbalance (deficit or excess) in intake of
  • Hunger
  • Deficiency of calorie and protein.
  • At least 1.2 billion people affected.
  • Micronutrient deficiency
  • Deficiency of vitamins and minerals.
  • 2.0 billion affected.
  • Overconsumption
  • Excess of calories.
  • Often accompanied by vitamins and minerals
  • At least 1.2 billion people affected.
  • 300 million people are obese.

Share of Underweight Children and Overweight
Adults, Selected Countries, Mid 1990s
1. Food Models
  • Changes in the diet
  • Nutritional shift
  • From a diet dominated by grains and vegetables to
    a diet dominated by fats and sugars.
  • Natural human desire for fat and sugar (energy
    dense foods low satiation).
  • Between 1980 and 2000 calorie intake in the US
    has risen nearly 10 for men and 7 for women.
  • Increased corporate involvement in food supply
  • Caffeine is added (75 of sodas) to provide
  • Massive usage of flavoring.
  • Homogenization of global diets
  • Outcome of trade.
  • Fast food industry.

1. Food Models
  • Nutrition Transition
  • Urban and sedentary
  • People are more often away from home.
  • 1970 75 of all food expenses spent to prepare
    meals at home.
  • 2000 50 of all food expenses for restaurants.
  • Element of time.
  • More woman in the labor force
  • Away from the traditional role of food
  • Both members of a couple are often working.
  • Less preparation time available
  • 90 of the money spent on food is spent on
    processed foods.

Food expenditures by families and individuals as
a share of disposable personal income, 1929-2006
1. Food Models
  • Obesity
  • 55 of the adult Americans (over 20 years) are
  • 20 of men and 25 of women are obese (BMI 30
    weight in kilograms, divided by the square of
    height in meters).
  • 15 aged 6-19 are overweight.
  • 2.2 morbidly obese (BMI 40).
  • More prevalent among the poor (fat and sugar).
  • Generation XXL
  • About 30 of American children are overweight
    (10 obese).
  • NYC About 43 overweight and 24 obese.
  • Supersizing.
  • Lack of physical activities.
  • High fat and sugar diet.
  • Diet-related diseases
  • 300,000 Americans die prematurely each year as a
    result of being overweight.
  • Americans spend 40 billion per year on
    weight-loss products and services.
  • Weight-loss products have been linked with
    growing obesity.
  • People simply eat more fat-free products.

Body Mass Index of Selected Countries ( of
population over 25 with a BMI of 30)
1. Food Models
  • The Fast Food diet
  • Higher sugar and fat content
  • Value added and high profits food products.
  • Fast food industry
  • 110 billion a year industry.
  • Largest group of minimum wage workers in the US
    (3.5 million).
  • 25 of the adult population visit a fast food
    restaurant every single day.
  • Most fast food is delivered to the restaurant
    already frozen, canned, dehydrated, or
  • A fast food kitchen is merely the final stage in
    a vast and highly complex system of mass
  • Fast food, sweetened cereals and candy
  • 50 of all food ads.
  • Targeting the children and inculcate a
    nutritional consumption leaning on sugars and
    fats (schools).

1. Food Models
  • Supersizing
  • Larger containers and quantities
  • Larger package size can increase consumption up
    to 55.
  • 1950s The standard Coca-Cola container was 6.5
  • 1990s The standard Coca-Cola container was 20
  • Little cost for the supplier
  • Brand name, packaging and marketing are dominant
    in pricing.
  • Larger quantities directly means higher profits.
  • Skew the perception of normal nutritional intake.

2. Food Production, Consumption and Trade
  • Agriculture (models)
  • Subsistence farming
  • Food mainly grown to support the family /
  • Variety of plants and animals cultivated.
  • Surpluses may be sold on local markets, often to
    pay taxes and buy simple goods.
  • Limited level of technology and capital
  • Commercial agriculture
  • Food mainly grown for national markets, with some
  • Specialization of crops (economies of scale).
  • High level of technology and capital investment.
  • Plantation
  • Food almost entirely grown for international
  • Specialized cash crops (coffee, bananas, cacao,
    sugar, etc.).

2. Food Production, Consumption and Trade
  • Food production
  • Has been able to keep up with population growth
  • Expansion of arable land.
  • Green Revolution.
  • Environmental stress, soil degradation and
    destruction of ecosystems.
  • Increased dependency on fertilizers and
  • Gradual shift to lower quality sources of
  • From beef to pork and poultry.
  • Intensification of aquaculture
  • Try to replace exhausted fish supplies.
  • More rational use of oceanic resources.

World Protein Production by Source, 1950-2000
2. Food Production, Consumption and Trade
  • Deficit and distribution
  • Overcome shortages
  • Import what is lacking in the national
  • An economy needs to generate sufficient surpluses
    from other sectors.
  • Purchase enough food to overcome the national
  • Very few Third World countries can afford to do
  • Africa
  • Region facing the most intensive shortages.
  • Chronic dependency of food aid.
  • China
  • Fast industrialization.
  • Growing importer of food.
  • India
  • Intense irrigation projects.
  • Has become self-sufficient, but may have reached
    a limit.

2. Food Production, Consumption and Trade
  • International trade of agricultural goods
  • About 9 of global exchanges in commodities.
  • The nature, origin and destination of food trade
    is linked to a number of factors
  • If the good is perishable.
  • Consumption habits.
  • The profit that can be derived from trading food
  • Highly linked to export cultures that are
    produced strictly to generate income.
  • Third World countries are massively involved in
    these types of cultures.

Exports of Cereals, 1960-2005 (in 1000s of tons)
Grain Imports for Selected Countries, 1990, With
Projected Need for Imported Grain in 2030
World Coffee Production and Trade, 2003
Share of Developing countries in global exports
of agricultural goods, 2000
3. The Green Revolution
  • Context
  • Strong population growth in the second half of
    the 20th century.
  • New techniques were required to increase
  • New land was becoming scarce.
  • Labor was difficult to add to existing
    agricultural systems.
  • Increasing the agricultural output
  • Green Revolution in the 1960s.
  • New varieties of wheat, corn and rice
  • 1920 20 bushels per acre (wheat).
  • 1997 120 bushels per acre (wheat).
  • Enabling up to three harvests per year and
    increased outputs.

3. The Green Revolution
  • Strategy
  • Focused more on scientific achievements rather
    than on mechanization of agriculture.
  • Focused on genetics and pedology (soil science).
  • The development of new seed strains
  • Increase agricultural production.
  • Make crops more resistant to diseases.
  • Development of hybrids.
  • New strains do not occur naturally.
  • The improvement of inputs into soils
  • Fertilizers of various types.
  • Enhance the productivity of previously marginal
  • Irrigation in dry areas (40 of our food comes
    from irrigation).
  • Boost productivity in many world regions but not
    without costs.

Fertilizer Response Curve for Corn
3. The Green Revolution
  • Net impact
  • Increased agricultural output in many areas.
  • Increased the cost of agriculture.
  • Decreased agricultural employment in many areas
  • Benefits accrued to the wealthier and middle
    class farmers who could afford its more costly
  • Increased landlessness among the peasantry.
  • Increased surplus population in rural areas.
  • Increased rural to urban migration in many
    developing countries.
  • Increased political instability in many places.

Global Production of Major Grains, 1961-2005 (in
M tons)
Global Cereal Yields, 1961-2005 (kg per hectare)
Change in Cereal Yields, 1965-2002
Cereal Output per Hectare, 2000 (kg)
Production and Yield of Wheat in China and India,
3. The Green Revolution
  • The Green Revolution and economic dependency
  • Requires irrigation systems, fertilisers and
  • Consumes a lot of oil.
  • Agriculture is now more capital intensive
  • Fertilisers and pesticides are often produced by
    multinational corporations.
  • Seeds are also produced.
  • Financing agriculture
  • Increasing linkages with financial institutions.
  • Borrowed money to purchase inputs, fell into
    debt, and lost their land to creditors when they
    were unable to pay.
  • Put the peasant in a debt cycle.
  • In many areas the Green Revolution increased
    landlessness among the peasantry.

3. The Green Revolution
  • Future of agriculture?
  • Improving the performance of plants and animals
  • Genetical engineering transgenic crops.
  • Controlled ripening (enzyme) tomatoes have a
    shelf life of 10 to 14 days.
  • Herbicide and fungal resistance.
  • Animal diet (increased absorption).
  • Improved nutrition (more amino acids, vitamins
    and easier digestion).
  • Modifying life to suit medical, industrial and
    energy purposes
  • Disease fighters (bananas and potatoes delivering
  • Manufacturing (colored cotton plastic making
    corn rubber making sunflower).
  • Hydrogen producing algae.

4. Agricultural Output and the Environment
  • Maintaining agricultural output
  • Context of increased food demand.
  • Provide food for the expected population surge of
    1.5 billion people between 2000 and 2020.
  • Expansion of land under cultivation.
  • Intensified cultivation higher productivity per
    unit of surface.
  • Efforts aimed at intensified cultivation are now
    much more critical than only 20 years ago.

4. Agricultural Output and the Environment
  • Expansion potential
  • Reserves still exist in the developing countries
    for expanding agricultural land.
  • Very unevenly distributed.
  • Found mainly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan
  • Asian countries, especially the most densely
    populated, have only slight expansion
  • Demographic pressure pushes towards that strategy.

Grain Harvested Area per Person, 1995-2020 (in
square meters)
Grain Equivalent to Produce Meat (in kg)
Meat Production, United States and China
1961-2005 (in tons)
4. Agricultural Output and the Environment
  • Consequences
  • Rapidly deterioration of environmental quality.
  • Extended soil degradation
  • Nutrient depletion.
  • Erosion.
  • Salination.
  • Dwindling availability of water resources
  • Agriculture accounts for 70 of all fresh water
  • Exhaustion of aquifers.
  • Water pollution by fertilizers and pesticides.
  • Loss of animal and plant species (biodiversity)
  • 20 to 30 of the worlds forest converted to
  • 50 of all species are in danger of extinction.
  • Threatening national parks and protected areas.

D. Water
  • 1. Sources of Water
  • 2. Water Development Projects
  • 3. Water Use

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1. Sources of Water
  • Rivers, lakes, and streams
  • Traditional sources of water.
  • 20 of the worlds reserves in the Great Lakes
  • 50 of all major rivers are polluted and
  • 700 million Chinese are drinking contaminated
  • Aquifers
  • Important water sources, especially in many dry
  • Wells of various kinds tap into the water table
    to draw upon underground sources of water.
  • 51 of all the drinking water in the US.
  • Many aquifers are re-charged
  • Receive water through percolation of rainwater
    through the overlying soil and rock structure.

1. Sources of Water
  • Fossil aquifers
  • They lie under arid regions today.
  • Formed in earlier geologic periods when the
    region may have received greater precipitation.
  • Not being re-charged a non-renewable resource.
  • The aquifer underlying parts of Saudi Arabia
    falls into this category.
  • De-salinization of sea water
  • Remains an expensive alternative.
  • Not produced satisfactory results in many areas,
    at least as far as human consumption is
  • Technologies for de-salinization are receiving
    greater priority.
  • Moving from steam-process to filtration
  • Pushed the price for desalted seawater down to 2
    for a thousand gallons, compared with 6 around

Sources of Water (in cubic miles)
2. Water Development Projects
  • Context
  • Increasing the amount of usable water for the
    various purposes that follow.
  • These projects are not without their limits or
    with their attendant problems.
  • Dam construction
  • Assisted tremendously in achieving the increases
    registered in irrigation worldwide.
  • Reaching the point where further increases will
    be difficult to realize.
  • Relatively few remaining rivers and streams.
  • More than 45,000 dams have been constructed
  • The rate of construction has declined recently.

Commissioning of Large Dams
2. Water Development Projects
  • Problems with dams
  • They are exceptionally expensive to build
  • Large dams cost billions of dollars.
  • Displace many people in areas to be flooded by
    the reservoir that is created behind the dam.
  • The reservoir takes some land out of production.
  • Dredging
  • The outcome of siltation.
  • The volume of sediments deposited from upstream
    by the river that is dammed can outstrip the
    capacity to dredge.
  • The reservoir may eventually fill in and the dam
    will become useless.
  • The rate of sedimentation increases with
    population growth and the expansion of
    agriculture in the upstream locations.
  • The flood control achieved by the dam is helpful
    in some ways.

Largest Dam Reservoirs
2. Water Development Projects
  • River diversion
  • Re-channeling water in some areas to render it
    more readily available for use, especially in
  • Reduces water flow to downstream locations.
  • Sometimes, international boundaries are crossed
    by rivers.
  • Removal of water for purposes upstream means that
    less water is available in the country (or
    countries) that lies downstream.
  • Rivers no longer reaching the sea
  • The Nile in Egypt.
  • The Ganges in South Asia.
  • The Yellow River in China.
  • The Colorado River in North America.

2. Water Development Projects
  • The Nile
  • The construction of the Aswan High Dam in
    southern Egypt.
  • Interrupted the seasonal pattern of flooding
    along the Nile Valley.
  • These floods throughout history have served to
    replenish the soils of the valley.
  • The soils are now not receiving the necessary
    nutrients and may be depleted.
  • Usage of fertilizers instead.
  • Irrigation water from the dam also enabled Egypt
    to double agricultural production.
  • Created increased soil salinity in the process.

Aswan High Dam
3. Water Use
  • Water use
  • Tripled since 1950.
  • Water use is increasing at a pace faster than
  • Linked with rising living standards.
  • Roles
  • Water has two primary contradictory roles
  • Key life support for all species and natural
  • A commodity to be sold and used for agricultural,
    industrial, and urban purposes.
  • The overuse of water and the pollution, if
    allowed to proceed unchecked, render the first
    role unsustainable.

Global Water Withdrawal by Sector, 1900-2000 (in
cubic km)
3. Water Use
  • Agriculture
  • Fast growth of water requirements.
  • Population growth.
  • Expansion of the land under cultivation.
  • Irrigation necessary to render arable otherwise
    marginal land.
  • Industrial
  • Used by heavy industry, notably mining.
  • Industrialization is leading to rapid increases
    in water use.
  • Municipal
  • Direct human consumption of water for drinking
    and cooking purposes, sewage treatment, space
    heating, and other uses.
  • Highly concentrated geographically due to
  • A human being needs 3-5 liters of water per day.

Percentage of Land Irrigated
Irrigated Area, Top 10 Countries, 1995 (in
millions of hectares)
Water Consumed to Supply 10 g of Protein,
Selected Foods
3. Water Use
  • Water losses
  • Loss of water before it can be used.
  • Result of human activity and/or alteration of the
  • Such losses amount to just 5 of water use.
  • Evaporation of still water from reservoirs.
  • Inefficient irrigation practices.
  • Infrastructure decay
  • Urban plumbing and sewer systems.
  • Problematic in many developing countries that
    cannot afford better upkeep.
  • Water pollution
  • 20 of rivers in China are severely polluted.
  • 80 cannot sustain commercial fishing.

The Bottom Line with Commodities
  • Human activities are dependant on commodities
  • Several commodities cannot be substituted.
  • Many are not renewable.
  • Price and availability
  • Supply and demand.
  • Level of utility.
  • The demand is expected to rise substantially.
  • The supply of many commodities will not.