Conditional Climatology Tools

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Conditional Climatology Tools

• AvnFPS 3.2

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Contributors
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Contributors

• Mike Graf (NWS Headquarters)
• Jerry Griffin (NWS Training Center)
• David Hotz (WFO Morristown, TN)
• Todd Lericos (WFO Caribou)
• Cammye Sims (WFO San Antonio)
• Mark Struthworf (WFO Salt Lake City)
• Jeff Tongue (WFO New York City)

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Objectives

• Describe Conditional Climatology
• Definition
• Benefits/Limitations
• Discuss new AvnFPS 3.2 climatology tools
• Wind Rose
• CIG/VSBY Distributions
• CIG/VSBY Trends
• Discuss current forecast methods/limitations
• Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast
  Toolkit
• Interpret and apply the output
• Case studies
• Local case studies

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What is Conditional Climatology?

• A distribution of variables now and in the future
  based on one or more given conditions.
• Examples
• Pattern Recognition
• Conceptual Models
• Local Rules of Thumb
• Forecaster Experience

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Role of Conditional Climatologyin Aviation
Forecasting

• 1960s
• Conditional Climatology Tables - USAF
• 1970s to present
• Numerical models
• MOS
• 2000s
• Integration of CC back into the aviation forecast
  process

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Benefits of Conditional Climatology?

• Guidance on event duration, intensity and trends
• Limits over forecasting of rare events
• Increases forecaster confidence
• Better results than just using persistence
  forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance

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Limitations of Conditional Climatology

• Can not be used alone!
• Does not discriminate physical processes
• May not be useful in extreme or rare weather
  events
• Not fool proof

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Wind Rose Tool
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Applied Wind Rose
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CIG/VSBY Distribution Tool
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Why are we here?
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Why are we here?
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Why are we here?
SOO Intern
Lead General
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Why are we here?
The SOO is killing me with all this Training
SOO Intern
Lead General
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CIG/VSBY Trend Tool
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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and
Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and
Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and
Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and
Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and
Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and
Visibility????
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What Tools Do you Use?
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What Tools Do you Use?

• Current Observations
• Satellite
• MOS
• Soundings / BUFKIT
• Model Data
• Local Studies
• Advection
• Convection
• Persistence

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What Tools Do you Use?

• Current Observations
• Satellite
• MOS
• Soundings / BUFKIT
• Model Data
• Local Studies
• Advection
• Convection
• Persistence

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Using NWP Model Data to forecast clouds
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Models

• Relative Humidity???
• Model Clouds???

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Model Soundings?
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BUFKIT RH and Clouds
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Relative Humidity Clouds?
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Adding Model Clouds
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RH with respect to ICE or Water?
RH With Respect to Water
RH With Respect to Ice
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RH Time Section
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Model Clouds and Bases
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How good are NWPModels at predicting

• Moisture?
• Its Horizontal and Vertical Distribution?
• Cloud Ceilings?

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Model Output Statistics!

• Good idea.
• Removes biases.
• Adds Climatology.

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MAV MOS

• Is the Weather in Caribou the same as State
  College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in
  Atlanta the same as San Antonio?
• Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and
  Visibility

Summer (Apr-Sept)
Winter (Oct-Mar)
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MAV MOS

• Model Run time plus 3 Hour Observation is
  Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z)
• Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category
  Probabilities.

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MOS - Ceiling and Visibility Category
Probabilities.
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NGM MOS

• Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern
• Period of Record used for equation Development is
  Extensive
• 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical

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We need more

• Rules of thumb?
• in this situation, the cloud base usually
  remains IFR until late morning.
• CLIMATOLOGY!!!
• Conditional Climatology

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Example18Z TAFJohn F. KennedyInternational
Airport
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17Z METAR

• METAR KJFK 311651Z 14009KT 10SM BKN007 BKN250
  19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP226 T01940161

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Situation

• SE Flow Prevails
• When and How Low does the Ceiling and Visibility
  Go??

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12Z NAM-eta(Fcst Hr 05)Valid 17Z
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15Z RUC(Fcst Hr 02)Valid 17Z
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12Z NAM-eta(Fcst Hr 14)Valid 02Z
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15Z RUC(Fcst Hr 11)Valid 02Z
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GFS MOS
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NGM MOS
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Current TAF

• KJFK 311509Z 311512 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO
  1617 SCT007
• FM1700 14009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT080 SCT140
• FM0200 VRB04KT 1SM BR SCT004 SCT040
• FM0600 VRB03KT 3/4SM BR BKN004
• TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002

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• Joint Distribution
• (default)
• May-Jun
• 16-18Z
• SE Wind
• 600-1000
• Un-restricted Visibility

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• Ceiling Distribution
• (default)
• May-Jun
• 16-18Z
• SE Wind
• 600-1000
• Un-restricted Visibility

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• Visibility Distribution
• (default)
• May-Jun
• 16-18Z
• SE Wind
• 600-1000
• Un-restricted Visibility

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• Ceiling Distribution
• Apr-mid Jun
• 13-22Z
• S-E Wind
• 500-900
• Un-restricted Visibility

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• Visibility Distribution
• Apr-mid Jun
• 13-22Z
• S-E Wind
• 500-900
• Un-restricted Visibility

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What Would You Forecast?
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What Was Forecast?

• FTUS41 KOKX 311700
• TAFJFK
• TAF
• KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007
• TEMPO 1923 SCT007
• FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005
• FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004
• TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002
• FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008
• FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050

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TAF based on Climatology?

• TAF
• KJFK 311728Z 311818 14010KT P6SM BKN007
• FM2200 14008KT 3SM BR OVC004
• FM0000 14008KT 1/2SM FG VV002

• ACTUAL TAF (no CC)
• KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007
• TEMPO 1923 SCT007
• FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005
• FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004
• TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002
• FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008
• FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050

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• KJFK 311751Z 15007KT 10SM BKN007 19/16 A3020 RMK
  AO2 SLP225 T01890161 10194 20172 56004
• KJFK 311851Z 15007KT 10SM VCFG BKN007 19/16 A3019
  RMK AO2 SLP222 VIS S 2 1/2 T01890161
• KJFK 311951Z 15009KT 8SM BKN007 19/16 A3017 RMK
  AO2 SLP217 T01890161
• KJFK 312051Z 16011KT 8SM OVC007 18/16 A3016 RMK
  AO2 SLP213 T01830156 58013
• KJFK 312151Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC005 18/16 A3013
  RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SLP203 T01780161
• KJFK 312155Z 15011KT 1/8SM BR OVC003 18/16 A3013
  RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6
• KJFK 312214Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC003 17/16 A3013
  RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SFC VIS E-SE 2 1/2
• KJFK 312251Z 15007KT 1/2SM R04R/3500VP6000FT BR
  OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 SLP204
  T01720161
• KJFK 312351Z 15009KT 1/2SM R04R/2000V3500FT BR
  OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP204
  T01670161 10194 20167 56008
• KJFK 010051Z 15006KT 1/2SM R04R/2200V3500FT BR
  OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP203
  T01670161
• KJFK 010151Z 19009KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2800FT FG
  VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP205
  T01670161
• KJFK 010232Z 18005KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT FG
  VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2
• KJFK 010238Z 19006KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V2200FT FG
  VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4
• KJFK 010251Z 18007KT 1/8SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG
  VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP203
  T01670161 58001
• KJFK 010324Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT FG
  VV001 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4
• KJFK 010351Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/1400V1600FT FG
  VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP201
  T01670167
• KJFK 010451Z 17005KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT -DZ FG
  VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 DZB35
  SLP203 P0000 T01720167 401940167
• KJFK 010551Z 14006KT 0SM R04R/1600FT FG VV001
  17/17 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 DZE50 SLP199
  P0000 60000 T01720167 10172 20167 58005
• KJFK 010651Z 15005KT 0SM R04R/1200V1400FT FG
  VV001 17/17 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193
  T01720167

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Best times to use Conditional Climatology

• During steady state quiet weather situations.
• Fog/Stratus events
• Radiation Fog
• Advection Fog
• Marine Stratus
• Prevailing Wind
• Determining Onset and Dissipation Times.
• Seasonal Refresher and New Forecasters
  orientation.
• New TAF sites, where 30-years of data exists

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What You Need to Do

• Develop local Case Studies with your Airports and
  TAFs to learn how best to integrate the NEW tools
  into your TAFs and your forecast operations.

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Summary

• Conditional Climatology improves the TAF process
  through increased forecaster confidence.
• Must correctly integrate Conditional Climatology
  with Observations, NWP, MOS and other techniques.
• Conditional Climatology can improve TAF quality
  and service.

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AVNFPS 3.2 Web Pages

• Main Page
• http//www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/AvnFPS3
  .2.html
• Supplemental Instructions
• http//www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/CS-DH-3
  .2.doc

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Pre-View - AVNFPS 3.3
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Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3
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Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3
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Thank You!
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References

• BUFKIT http//www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/
• MOS http//www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.s
  html
• MODCV https//notus2.afccc.af.mil/
• MODELS http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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References

• Old Forecast Tools (Ouija Board, Crystal Ball,
  Dart Board and the Magic 8 Ball) available at
  Wal-Mart, Target and other fine stores!