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Raise calves for market (reproductive capacity of the herd is key) ... Want quick turn-over in calf production. Cull unproductive animals. Communal ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Presentazione di PowerPoint


1
Ex ante impact assessment and seasonal climate
forecasts status and issues Philip
Thornton International Livestock Research
Institute, Nairobi, Kenya Institute of
Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences,
University of Edinburgh, Scotland Internation
al Workshop on Climate Prediction and
Agriculture Advances and Challenges WMO, Geneva,
11-13 May 2005
2
Outline
  • Ex ante impact assessment
  • Some methods and tools
  • Impact assessment and climate forecasting
  • Moving the agenda forward

2
3
Presentation focus
  • Ex ante methods of assessing impacts at an
    aggregated level
  • potential societal impacts of change in
    agricultural systems
  • Change as a result of
  • indigenous innovation
  • research (technology, policy)
  • drivers such as population growth

3
4
Presentation focus
  • A large and growing literature on ex ante
    assessment of climate forecast use at the
    household and individual level
  • Much less seems to have been done at aggregated
    levels

4
5
A traditional view of impact assessment
Impacts
Year Z
Research costs
Extension costs
Adoption costs on-farm
Adapted from Randolph et al. (2001)
5
6
A traditional view of impact assessment
  • A vast literature exists based on this model
  • The effectiveness of this type of ex ante IA is
    dependent on monitoring and evaluation
  • In practice, if things cannot be valued
    relatively easily, they tend to be ignored
  • Sees the innovation process as being highly
    linear and one-way

6
7
Sayer and Campbell (2003)
7
8
Another view of impact assessment
Adaptation, uptake, dis-adoption
  • Impacts on
  • Production
  • Income
  • Food security
  • Vulnerability
  • Adaptive capacity
  • ...

Year Y
Year 0
Adaptation
Successive INRM learning cycles
Updating
Action
Subsystem Identification
Reflection
Implementation costs of doing INRM
8
9
Questions of ex ante impact assessment
  • However the innovation process is seen, it
    involves some sequence of change ? uptake ?
    impact, and there are common questions to be
    answered
  • Who are the clients?
  • Impact where?
  • Impact on whom?
  • Which impacts?
  • How to value the impacts?

9
10
Who are the clients for ex ante impact assessment?
  • Policy makers at national, regional, local level
    (decisions to be made in pursuit of policy
    objectives)
  • Donors (priority setting, targeting)
  • Researchers (priority setting, targeting)
  • Private sector (investment decisions)
  • General public (direct impacts of the use of
    public resources)

10
11
Impact where, and on whom?
  • Physical location recommendation domains,
    targeting
  • Characteristics of target populations in these
    areas

11
12
Site selection, Sub-Saharan Africa Challenge
Programme
  • Spatial data
  • Administrative boundaries
  • Climatological data
  • Farming systems
  • Length of growing period
  • Livestock populations
  • Market access
  • Human population
  • Soils and erosion risk
  • Vegetation cover
  • Protected areas
  • Watersheds, lakes, rivers
  • Non-spatial data
  • Institutional environment
  • Policy environment
  • Local livelihood options
  • Critical health issues
  • Broad poverty trends
  • Social capital
  • Commercial sector linkages
  • Added value
  • Representative-ness
  • Potential for impact

12
13
SSA-CP site selection
Site characteristic Kano, Katsina, Maradi Lake Kivu Zimbabwe- Mozambique-Malawi corridor
LGP (months) 2.5 - 6 gt 9 gt5 - 10
Annual rainfall (mm) 500-1100 1,500-2,000 700 - 800
Relief Mostly flat intersected with inland valleys Mostly mountainous From mountainous to flat plains towards coast
Policy environment Medium Weaker Weaker
Market environment Medium Weaker Medium
Institutional environment Stronger Weaker Stronger
Principal NRM issue Soil nutrients Vulnerability Soil fertility management
Site area (km2) 83,900 19,500 274,000
13
14
SSA-CP extrapolation domain for Lake Kivu
Elevation gt 1500 m Rainfall gt 800 mm Pop density
gt 50 / km2 Access indicator lt 90
Area 19,500 ? 361,700 km2 Population (2000) 15 ?
69 million Population (2030) 29 ? 131 million

Notenbaert (2004)
14
15
Which impacts, and how to value them?
  • Which impacts will depend on the situation
  • Production, productivity
  • Poverty alleviation
  • Food security
  • Environment
  • Capacity building
  • Commodity prices for consumers
  • Others ...

15
16
Production objectives of livestock keepers
in Vryberg District, Northwest Province, RSA
  • Commercial
  • Raise calves for market (reproductive capacity
    of the herd is key)
  • Age-sex composition of the herd is carefully
    controlled
  • Want quick turn-over in calf production
  • Cull unproductive animals
  • Communal
  • Maintain cattle as a capital and social asset
  • Maintain as large a herd as possible, sell
    animals only in extremis
  • Practise goat production as a hedge against
    drought
  • Do not under-utilise pasture

Hudson (2002)
16
17
Mixed crop-livestock systems in Kenya and N
Tanzania after Seré and Steinfeld (1996)
17
18
Characteristics of four maize-based mixed systems
identified in the Eastern and Southern Africa
region
Functions of livestock Dairy, manure Dairy,
manure, draft Draft, meat, manure Draft, meat
Source Thorne et al. (2002)
18
19
Evaluating the impacts (a subsample)
Method Description Pros, Cons Suitability for Assessing Suitability for Assessing Suitability for Assessing
Change Uptake Impacts
Ad hoc Informal assessment involving little analysis Cheap and quick sometimes not very good Low Low Low
Scoring methods Measurable indicators and weights assigned to a set of criteria and the results ranked Intuitively appealing, hard to scale indicators to match policy objectives Medium Medium Medium
Economic surplus Estimate how change will improve on-farm productivity and reduce costs of production and consumer prices Comprehensive, data demanding and needs analytical skill High Medium Medium
Harder simulation models Assess biophysical impacts at a range of scales using quantitative models Data intensive, time consuming, difficult to calibrate and test Low Low High
19
20
Information needed for an ex ante assessment
Stage 1. Change (e.g. research) Resources
required Time Partnerships and skills Intermediate
and final outputs Probability of success
Level of uncertainty Mod Mod Low Mod Mod-High
How to obtain Peer review Scoring
methods Econometric methods
20
21
Information needed for an ex ante assessment
Stage 2. Uptake Who, characteristics Where,
characteristics Infrastructure needed Policies
needed Adoption rate, ceiling Costs involved
Level of uncertainty Mod Mod High High High Mod-H
igh
How to obtain GIS, surveys GIS,
surveys GIS Surveys Scoring methods Scoring
methods
21
22
Information needed for an ex ante assessment
Stage 3. Impact quantification Production Inco
me Environment Capacity building Costs, prices,
elasticities
Level of uncertainty Mod Mod High High Mod
How to obtain Biophysical models Household
models Models, scoring Scoring methods Lit
review, surveys
22
23
Challenges in doing ex ante impact
assessments related to climate forecasts
1. The nature of climate forecasts Which
impacts to measure? Seasonal climate forecasts
may modify risk, and this has to be taken into
account Impacts on whom? People grow crops and
keep livestock for various reasons, not all to do
with food production and cash generation How to
assess uptake? Seasonal forecasts may be
inaccurate Their uptake will depend on
credibility of the source and forecast skill
23
24
Challenges in doing ex ante impact
assessments related to climate forecasts
2. The need to assess impacts across time and
space Which impacts to measure? Aggregate
impacts of seasonal climate forecast use may
substantially modify local prices Impacts of
modified management may be felt over entire
production cycles, or even multiple production
cycles
24
25
Challenges in doing ex ante impact
assessments related to climate forecasts
3. Assessing what is required of the
institutional and policy environments How to
assess uptake? What support is likely to be
necessary, and how much may it cost to set in
place and maintain?
25
26
Information needed for an ex ante
assessment related to seasonal climate forecasts
Stage 1. Change (e.g. implementation) Resource
s required Time Partnerships and
skills Probability of different levels of success
Level of uncertainty Mod Mod High High
How to obtain Scoring methods Peer review
26
27
Information needed for an ex ante
assessment related to seasonal climate forecasts
Stage 2. Uptake Who, characteristics Where,
characteristics Infrastructure needed Policies
needed Adoption rate, ceiling Costs involved
Level of uncertainty Mod Mod High High High High
How to obtain GIS, surveys GIS,
surveys GIS Surveys Scoring methods Scoring
methods
27
28
Information needed for an ex ante
assessment related to seasonal climate forecasts
Stage 3. Impact quantification Production Inco
me, risk and food security Changes in
vulnerability Changes in adaptive
capacity Capacity building Costs, prices,
elasticities
Level of uncertainty Mod Mod-High High High High
Mod-High
How to obtain Biophysical models Household
models Models, scoring? Models, scoring? Scoring
methods Lit review, surveys
28
29
Future developments to help overcome the
challenges
  • 1 Understanding better who the potential clients
    are, and what characterises them
  • Partly a question of spatial info (poverty maps,
    new continental/global data layers, etc)
  • But also a question of information on
    non-spatial determinants of poverty and
    vulnerability, how decision makers actually make
    decisions, information flows and power structures
    in communities, etc

29
30
Future developments to help overcome the
challenges
  • 2 Developing tools that are better able to cope
    with the demands of climate forecast assessment
  • May need new or adapted behavioural frameworks,
    beyond profit or utility maximisation, to take
    account of impacts on
  • food security
  • reduction of household vulnerability
  • increases in household adaptive capacity
  • Different types of models may help agent based,
    systems dynamics

30
31
Future developments to help overcome the
challenges
3 Developing approaches that combine
quantitative and qualitative elements Linked
also to provision of baseline data, for
monitoring and evaluation That can then be
linked to ex post impact assessments, so that the
lessons learned from this whole process can be
applied elsewhere in the pursuit of poverty
alleviation goals
31
32
Future developments to help overcome the
challenges
4 Making the process of impact assessment
participatory The process is often as important
as (if not more important than) the results of
the analysis Getting all stakeholders involved
in thinking broadly about the problems involved
and the potential impacts
32
33
Thank you p.thornton_at_cgiar.org
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