Critical Thinking about Human Behavior and Leadership

1
Critical Thinking about Human Behavior (and
Leadership)

• University of Central Florida

2
RecallHow will I gauge success?

• Are you thinking critically about issues, ideas,
  concepts?
• Are you summarizing your thoughts clearly,
  effectively?
• Are you taking all major issues into
  consideration? Identifying contingencies?
• Are you engaged? Are you making interesting
  observations? Are you identifying key leadership
  idea in current events?

3
True or False?

• A happy worker is a productive one.
• Because two heads are better than one, groups
  make better decisions than individuals.
• Conflict in organizations is highly disruptive.
• Individuals are the most productive when their
  boss is friendly, trusting, and approachable.
• Interviews are an effective selection device.
• Money is best motivator and satisfier.

4
A Brain Exercise

• Is day care bad for young children?

5
Common Flaws in thinking

• Telling an anecdote (i.e., extraordinary example)
• Referring to instinct or laws of nature or
  what everyone knows
• Failing to notice the assumption of harm in the
  way the question is asked
• Using emotion instead of reason and evidence
• Seeing alternatives in terms of black or white,
  good or bad
• Failing to adequately define the concepts (e.g.,
  daycare, young children)

6
Graduate-level Education

• From UCF Graduate Business School website
• Programs are designed todevelop analytical,
  problem-solving, and decision-making
  capabilities
• That means
• Select which Information is Credible
• Recognize and Defend against propaganda
• Reason Effectively, Comprehensively
• Estimate Relative Importance of Multiple Factors
• Be Creative and Identify Alternatives
• Explain Predict Observed Phenomena

7
Effective Management?

• AACSB Foundations of Effective Management
• Analytic thinking
• Behavioral flexibility
• Decision making
• Leadership
• Written and oral communication
• Personal impact
• Planning and organizing
• Resistance to stress
• Self-objectivity
• Tolerance for ambiguity

8
Critical Thinkers about Human Behavior

• Recognize that general patterns of behavior exist
• Seek to identify, qualify, and explain
  relationships among important aspects of work
  life
• Where possible, take a scientific approach to
  examining cause and effect
• Draw conclusions based on data
• Maintain a central focus
• Variance exists and we want to explain it.

9

• "Nothing has such power to broaden the mind as
  the ability to investigate systematically and
  truly all that comes under your observation in
  life."
• MARCUS AURELIUS

10
System of Critical Thinking
Covariation (Is change in One Variable
associated with change in the Other?)
Is magnitude of association meaningful? Are
differences statistically significant?
11
Ways of Knowing
Scientific Method
Rationalism
Personal Experience
Authority
Tenacity
Intuition
12
Ways of Knowing

• Intuition Information is accepted on gut feel
• Tenacity Information is accepted as true because
  it has always been believed (superstition)
• Authority We rely on (and trust) information
  from an expert in the subject area
• Personal Experience Let me tell you what
  happened to me.
• Rationalism We seek answers by applying logical
  reasoning to a known set of facts
• Scientific Method Obtain knowledge through
  careful observation and prudent interpretation of
  data

13
Pro Footballs Cherished MythsBy Allen Barra
Wall Street Journal, 8/26/06

• Offense sells tickets, but defense wins
  championships.
• Dome teams have the advantage.
• Home teams have the advantage.

• On what grounds do we base these assumptions?
• Are these assumptions reasonable?
• How would we test these myths? Revise statements?

14
Testing Assumptions with Data Differences in
Means

• Charismatic leadership throughout history has
  most often been attributed to men. Thus, men are
  more charismatic than women. Assumption M
  charisma-men gt M charisma-women

Difference between women and men is
non-significant.
15
Testing Assumptions with DataCorrelation
Coefficient

• What explains variance in GPA?
• GPA is a measure of academic performance
• Variance exists among students

16
Possible explanations for variance?

• Intelligence
• Personality
• Motivation to learn
• Self-evaluation (self esteem)
• Mood
• Membership in organization
• Work experience

Assumption Each of these variables explain
variance in GPA
17
Testing Assumptions with Data Correlation
Coefficient

• To what extent are Intelligence and Motivation to
  Learn associated with GPA?

JOB PERFORMANCE GPA
18
Correlation Coefficient

• Indicates the strength of the linear relationship
  between two variables
• A standardized measure of association (so we can
  be compare it to other correlation coefficients)
• Ranges from -1 to 1
• Is indicated by lower case r

19
Intelligence and Academic PerformanceSAT-GPA
(Class survey)
20
Motivation and Academic PerformanceMotivation to
attend-GPA (Class survey)
21
Possible explanations for variance?
22
Lets think critically about a common assumption

• We generally assume that a happy (satisfied)
  worker is a productive one.
• Why would this be true?
• Suppose we observe that people who are happy also
  perform at high levels.
• Can we conclude that a causal relationship exists
  (i.e., satisfaction ? performance)?

23
Job Satisfaction Job Performance
r.17
Performance
Satisfaction
Based on Judge et al. (2001)
24
Explanations for association b/w performance
satisfaction?
Source Judge, Thoreson, Bono, Patton (2001).
The Job Satisfaction-Job Performance
Relationship A Qualitative and Quantitative
Review
25
Performance ? Satisfaction?
Relationship is Spurious
Strength of Relationship changes based on aspects
of work environment (e.g., job)
Source Judge, Thoreson, Bono, Patton (2001).
The Job Satisfaction-Job Performance
Relationship A Qualitative and Quantitative
Review
26

• So now I ask
• What can you tell me about the relationship
  between job satisfaction and job performance?

27
Breast-Feeding Linked to IQ Gain Study Ties
Adult Intelligence to Nutrition in Infancy

• By Marc Kaufman
• Infants breast-fed for nine months grew up to be
  significantly more intelligent than infants
  breast-fed for one month or less, according to a
  study published in the Journal of the AMA.
• Supporting the conclusion that breast-feeding
  improved intelligence, researchers found a strong
  "dose effect" -- a gradual improvement based on
  the number of months of breast-feeding up to nine
  months, when the effect ended.
• Results from the study, of more than 3,000 young
  men and women in Denmark, strongly support the
  long suggested, but unproven conclusion that
  breast-feeding makes babies not only healthier,
  but smarter.
• "We are really quite certain that what we are
  seeing here is the effect of the duration of
  breast-feeding on an individual's intelligence.
  The evidence is growing that breast-feeding is
  among the most important lifelong benefits a
  mother can give to her child."

28
Nursing ? IQ
Why is this true (i.e., what are explanations of
reasons why breast milk leads to high IQ)? What
are alternative explanations of observed
phenomenon?
29
Potential Explanations

• Nursing facilitates emotional development in
  children emotional development (confidence,
  initiative, persistence) ? IQ.
• Breast milk contains nutrients that not available
  in formula these nutrients facilitate brain
  development.
• Women who breast feed, are more likely to
  maintain and encourage a healthy lifestyle ?
  better performance in school.
• Women who breast feed, are also more likely to
  make personal sacrifices for the childs benefit.

30
Nursing ? IQ. A Spurious Relationship?
31
To assert that A causes B

• A and B must co-vary (i.e., both A and B change)
• A must happen before B (temporal precedence)
• We must eliminate plausible alternative
  explanations for observed association
• NOTE
• Correlation does not indicate causality

32
U.S. Casualties in Iraq
33
U.S. Casualties in Iraq
34
U.S. Casualties in Iraq
35
Variance Explained1) Shared Responsibility, 2)
Iran Syria, 3) Civil War
Alternative Explanations?
Explanations shape strategy
36
Casualties -- Temperatures in Baghdad
r -.61
Correlation ? Causality
37
ABCs Survival Training

• According to the ABC report, sales and
  productivity improved because of the positive
  benefits of the ropes course experience.

• Alternative explanations?

38
Correlation or Causation?
39
How good is the press at distinguishing between
correlation and causation?

• Fear of hell makes us richer, Fed says (July 24,
  2004) link
• Researchers say, all else being equal, belief in
  eternal damnation reduces corruption, strengthens
  the rules of law and raises per capita income.
• Surgeons With Video Game Skill Appear To Perform
  Better In Simulated Surgery Skills Course
  (February 20, 2007) link
• In a study involving 12 surgeons and 21 surgical
  residents, video game skill was correlated with
  laparoscopic surgery skill as assessed during a
  simulated surgery skills course.
• Credit cards can make you fat (July 18, 2007)
  link
• Now that fast-food restaurants accept credit
  cards, a survey shows, you're less likely to
  drive past -- and you'll order more, too.

http//jonathan.mueller.faculty.noctrl.edu/100/cor
relation_or_causation.htm
40
System of Critical Thinking
Covariation (Is change in One Variable
associated with change in the Other?)
Is magnitude of association meaningful? Are
differences statistically significant?
41
Thinking Critically

• We observe some phenomenon
• Does variance exist?
• On what theoretical grounds can we explain
  observed difference?
• Are assumptions reasonable?
• Are differences meaningful? (means, correlation)
• Do alternative explanations exist?
• Do the methods of research support conclusion?

42
Why Systematic Thinking in OB?

• We want to explain variance in
• Job Performance
• Job Satisfaction
• Commitment to the organization
• Citizenship behavior
• Turnover
• Withdrawal

43
To think critically, Ask different questions

• Not If
• but When or Which or For Whom or Under
  what Conditions
• When is a happy worker a productive one?
• Under what conditions are two heads are better
  than one?
• Which individuals are most productive when
  their bosses are friendly, trusting, and
  approachable (and which ones are not)?
• Under what conditions are interviews effective?
• For Whom is Money is best motivator and
  satisfier?

44
Leadership Cognitive Ability(and patterns of
thinking)

• General IQ (Cognitive Ability) exhibits strong
  connection to leader effectiveness in ALL fields
• So does the ability to examine and integrate
  knowledge from diverse sources and perspectives
• Convergent Thinking
• And the ability to creatively apply knowledge in
  new ways to new problems
• Divergent Thinking
• Leadership Tip When in doubtThink!

45
Paradoxical Proverbs

• Look before you leap.
• He who hesitates is lost.
• Too many cooks spoil the broth.
• Two heads are better than one.
• You cant teach an old dog new tricks.
• Its never too late to learn.
• Absence makes the heart grow fonder.
• Out of sight, out of mind.
• A penny saved is a penny earned.
• You cant take it with you.
• The Devil is in the Detail.
• Dont Sweat the Small Stuff

U.S. Railroad Gauge