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Preliminary report on verification scores for malaria and the climate drivers DEMETER to ENSEMBLES

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... on verification scores for malaria and the climate drivers DEMETER to ENSEMBLES ... DEMETER driven LMM. ... also have for DEMETER equivalent years ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Preliminary report on verification scores for malaria and the climate drivers DEMETER to ENSEMBLES


1
Preliminary report on verification scores for
malaria and the climate drivers DEMETER to
ENSEMBLES
  • Andy Morse, Cyril Caminade and Anne Jones
  • Department of Geography,
  • University of Liverpool,
  • Liverpool,
  • United Kingdom
  • A.P.Morse_at_liv.ac.uk

2
Running Order
  • Introduction
  • Malaria verification ENSEMBLES stream II
    limited area
  • Climate verification
  • ENSEMBLES stream II - all Africa
  • Summary and Way Forward

3
Introduction
  • Normally use BSS and ROCSS to work with
    probabilistic data
  • Running RMSE, ACC and MSSS deterministically
  • on ensemble mean
  • Developed/modified scripts for skill scores
  • in NCAR Command Language (NCL) share cross
    validate?
  • Work not complete will report via ENSEMBLES
    website

4
Introduction ROCSS malaria modelling
Tier-2 malaria runs - ROC Skill Scores Above
Median Event
May 4-6 JAS
Nov 4-6 FMA
DEMETER driven LMM. Areas of high interannual
variability were selected and persisted forecast
skill was removed from the scores. Jones, A.
and Morse, A. (2007) CLIVAR Exchanges, 43
5
Validation of Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM)
runs forced by ENSEMBLES stream2 seasonal
forecasts
6
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Table of experiments
LMM dynamic malaria mode forced with daily Tx and
pptn. The domain Botswana 27.5S-17.5S
17.5E-30E
7
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Scores
  • ACC anomaly correlation coefficients
  • Addresses the question How well did the forecast
    anomalies correspond to the observed anomalies?
  • RMSE Root mean square errors
  • Answers the question What is the average
    magnitude of the forecast errors?
  • MSSS Mean square skill score
  • with

8
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1961-2000 NDJF
RMSE for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF
1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion
run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means.
9
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1961-2000 NDJF
ACC for Malaria Incidence over Bostwana (NDJF
1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion
run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means. The dotted area
display significant correlations at the 95
confidence interval
10
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1961-2000 NDJF
MSSS for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF
1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion
run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means.
11
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF
RMSE for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF
1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion
run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means.
12
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF
ACC for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF
1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion
run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means. The dotted area
display significant correlations at the 95
confidence interval
13
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF
MSSS for Malaria Incidence over Bostwana (NDJF
1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion
run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means.
14
Validation climate drivers ENSEMBLES stream2
1981-2000 seasonal forecasts
15
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF
RMSE for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference
dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
16
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF
ACC for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference
dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
17
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF
MSSS for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference
dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
18
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF
RMSE for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
19
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 NDJF
ACC for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
20
ENSEMBLES stream 2
Results 1981-2000 DJF
MSSS for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
21
Summary Way Forward?
  • Experience in BSS and ROCSS (probabilistic)
  • Question non probabilistic nature/use of RMSE,
  • ACC and MSSS for EPS verification
  • All data should come with sets of verification
    plots
  • e.g. ECMWF DEMETER
  • http//www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/d/charts/ver
    ification
  • Library of scripts? Or portal to where they
    exsist

22
Questions?
23
(No Transcript)
24
Validation climate drivers ENSEMBLES stream1
1991-2001 seasonal forecasts
also have for DEMETER equivalent years
25
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
RMSE for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means.
26
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
RMSE for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
27
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
ACC for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means.
28
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
ACC for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
29
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
MSSS for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis
is applied to the ensemble means.
30
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
MSSS for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
31
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
RMSE for prlr (DJF 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
32
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
ACC for prlr (DJF 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
33
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 DJF
MSSS for prlr (DJF 1981-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
34
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 JAS
RMSE for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
35
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 JAS
ACC for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
36
ENSEMBLES stream 1
Results 1991-2000 JAS
MSSS for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference
dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is
applied to the ensemble means.
37
(No Transcript)
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