HPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING MICHAEL SCHICHTEL DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/HPC CAMP SPRINGS, MARYLAND HPC: HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

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HPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING MICHAEL
SCHICHTELDOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/HPCCAMP SPRINGS,
MARYLANDHPC HTTP//WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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HPCS MEDIUM RANGE DESK
MIKE SCHICHTEL
FRANK ROSENSTEIN
TEAMWORK
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS 3-7 DAY FORECASTS
TARGETED OBSERVATIONS
TROPICAL COORDINATION 5-DAY ACCUMULATED
QPF
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OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS USED BY HPC
GLOBAL RUN TIME RUN DURATION MIN
HORIZONTAL MEMBERS
MODEL (UTC) (DAYS)
GRID SPACING (KM) PER DAY
ECMWF 0,12 10 25
2 GFS 0,6,12,18
16 50
4 ECM ENS 12 10
50
50 NOGAPS 0,12 6
55 2
UKMET 0,12 6
60 2 CANADA
0,12 10/6
70/35 2 NGPS ENS 0
10 85
10 CAN ENS 0
10 90
17 GFS ENS 0,6,12,18 16
105
45 TOTAL MODEL RUNS 144!
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WINTER 2003-2004
SUMMER 2003
WINTER2003/4
EMC
EMC
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EMC
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DAY 6 500 MB FORECASTS VALID FEB 19, 2004
GFS
NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN
A STORMY SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS. MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SEEM REASONABLE FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THRU THE WEST-CENTRAL US. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER FOR THE EASTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT
PREFER A POTENT BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN GFS
STORM TRACK CONSIDERING THE ECMWF, ENSEMBLES,
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HISTORY, AND HPC GUIDANCE
CONTINUITY.
ECMWF
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DAY 6 SURFACE FORECASTS VALID FEB 19, 2004
GFS
HPC
ECMWF
NCEP AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
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DAY 5 500 MB VALID FEB 18, 2004
VERIFICATION MAKES YOU SMARTER!
KEY (564 DM HEIGHT) OBSERVED
WHITE GFS YELLOW ECMWF
PURPLE GFS ENS MEAN BROWN
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN RED ECMWF ENS
MEMBERS BLUE
DAY 6 500 MB VALID FEB 19, 2004
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GOES IR IMAGERY
FEB 18, 2004 12 UTC
FEB 19, 2004 12 UTC
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TARGETED OBSERVATIONS ISSUED FEB 13
VALID FEB 18 FORECASTER
SCHICHTEL PRIORITY HIGH WRN US HVY PCPN
(40N/124W) PRIORITY MODERATE MID-ATLC
PCPN (35N/77W)
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SNOWBOUND NOVA SCOTIANS