The tools of insurgency key research findings on weapons and armed conflict Action A25 Conference on - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 8
About This Presentation
Title:

The tools of insurgency key research findings on weapons and armed conflict Action A25 Conference on

Description:

The tools of insurgency key research findings on weapons and armed ... Plumper and Neumeyer & Li and Wen find that women suffer more from indirect mortality. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:53
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 9
Provided by: agn62
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: The tools of insurgency key research findings on weapons and armed conflict Action A25 Conference on


1
The tools of insurgency key research findings
on weapons and armed conflictAction A25
Conference on Armed Violence, Brussels, 17 March
Nicholas Marsh, Action ChairInternational
Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)
2
Key research findings 2004-2008
  • How weapons reach armed conflicts.
  • Conflict deaths.
  • Arms acquisition and conflict dynamics.

3
How weapons reach opposition groups
  • The key work is by Mike Bourne
  • Critiques the amorphous image of an all
    pervasive global black market in weapons.
  • Examines how illicit acquisition is embedded in
    regional conflict complexes (exploitation of
    resources and regional state rivalries).
  • Inter-continental flows of arms are largely
    legal, and they diverted into illicit channels at
    the regional level.

4
Refinement via several methods
  • Killicoat uses a dataset of Kalashnikov prices
  • Finds that there are considerable differences in
    prices between regions.
  • Lower prices are linked to war onset.
  • Khakee and Florquin use case studies
  • Find great differences in how weapons are sourced
    in various conflicts.
  • Kinsella uses dataset of arms trafficking
    incidents
  • Finds that the global illicit trade resembles a
    hub and spoke model.

5
Conflict deaths
  • Initial broad brush global estimates
  • Widely cited estimate of 300 000 conflict deaths
    per year during the 1990s.
  • Similar estimate produced by the WHO in 2002.
  • Since 2004 there has been considerable research
    effort to quantify deaths in armed conflict
  • Lacina and Gleditsch dataset.
  • Country level surveys (Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan
    and the DRC).
  • Smaller scale surveys in conflict zones.

6
Conflict deaths 2
  • The battle deaths are predominantly men, but
    indirect deaths affect women and children
  • Plumper and Neumeyer Li and Wen find that women
    suffer more from indirect mortality.
  • Ghobarah, Huth and Russet find that deaths and
    disease continue long after the shooting stops.
  • Development of methodologies
  • Tabak-Coupland
  • Surveys
  • Monitoring press articles

7
Arms acquisition and conflict dynamics
  • Arms embargoes and conflict termination
  • The roles of arms embargoes in bringing about the
    end of a conflict (Holtom and Vines).
  • Re-ignition of conflict
  • Weapons availability in the post-conflict
    context.
  • The relationship between acquisition and the form
    of an insurgency
  • Warlordism, fracture or dominance.

8
Norway as a Peacebroker
  • The Oslo Process
  • Sufficiently small to be unthreatening
  • U.S. Connections
  • Oil money
  • Diplomatically rewarding
  • Nobel Peace Prize

Thank you for your attention.
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com