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Modeling Threats to Coral Reefs and Economic Impacts

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Modeling Threats to Coral Reefs and Economic Impacts. Lauretta Burke ... Develop a standardized indicator of threat to coral reefs from human activities ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Modeling Threats to Coral Reefs and Economic Impacts


1
Modeling Threats to Coral Reefs and Economic
Impacts
  • Lauretta Burke
  • World Resources Institute (WRI)

2
P - S - R
Pressure
State
Response
3
Threats can change condition and productivity
Threats (Pressure) ---gt Change in Condition ---gt Change in Productivity
4
Threats can change condition and productivity
  • Threats
  • Overfishing
  • Sewage Discahrge
  • Increased Sediments and Nutrients
  • Mangrove Removal
  • Change in Coral condition
  • LCC
  • Diversity
  • Coral extent
  • Coral growth
  • Change in Productivity
  • Fish Production
  • Visual appeal from divers
  • Shoreline Protection

5
Changes in Good / Service
  • Fish Catch
  • Fishing Costs
  • Fish Productivity

6
Changes in Good / Service
  • Some divers go to other destinations
  • Some divers do fewer dives
  • Some retire
  • Visual Appeal to Divers

7
Changes in Good / Service
  • (Will take longer to observe)
  • May result in increased routine erosion
  • Less protection during big storms
  • Shoreline Protection Services

8
Assumptions required for these links
  1. Physical
  2. Economic

9
Assumptions required for Fisheries
  • Productivity for different reef quality levels
  • (based on synthesis of literature)

Reef Condition Assumed Maximum Sustained Fisheries Production (mt/km2/yr)
Healthy 4
Moderate 2.3 - 2.9
Poor 0.7 - 1.7
2. Hand over to economists to evaluate
implications of change in price and In fishing
costs.
10
Assumptions required for Dive Tourism
  • Diver balk rate due to change in reef condition
  • (based on published and unpublished dive industry
    surveys and synthesis of expert opinion)

Reef Condition Reduced Diving
Healthy 0
Moderate 1-5 loss
Poor 4-10 loss
11
Why model threats to reefs?
  • Raise awareness about threats to coral reefs
  • Establish linkages between human activity and
    coral condition
  • Develop a standardized indicator of threat to
    coral reefs from human activities
  • Promote sharing and improvement of information
    through data integration and distribution

12
Spatial Threat Analysis
  • Scale Dependent
  • More detailed data yield more precise results

13
Threat Analysis Approach
  • Define threats (or categories)
  • Identify contributing factors
  • (Stressors and physical factors)
  • Consider how to operationalize indicators of
    threat
  • Data availability
  • Rules / model
  • Calibration and Validation of model results

14
Examples
  • Reefs at Risk Coastal Development
  • Reefs at Risk Watershed-based Threat
  • Population Pressure Indicator for Tobago
  • Land cover and watersheds in Tobago

15
Threat Coastal Development
  • Dredging, land filling and reclamation
  • Mining of sand and coral
  • Runoff from construction
  • Sewage discharge
  • Impacts from tourism

Replace photo
16
Coastal Development Analysis Method
  • Proxy Indicators

Mapped Stressors
Airports Dive Centers
Cities Towns
17
Model Rules for Coastal Development
Subject / Stressor Qualifier High Medium Low
Cities 50,000 to 100,000 0 -10 km
Cities Over 100,000 0 -10 km 10 25 km
Cities Over 1 million 0 - 20 km 20 40 km
Towns Various sizes various
Airports Military and Civilian 0 10 km
Mines By type various
Tourist sites Resorts and dive centers 0 4 km
Population Pressure Near Coast various various various
18
Coastal Development Analysis Method
  • Proxy Indicators
  • Distance from development features

Threats Estimated
Medium High
Estimated Threat From Coastal Development
19
Coastal Development Analysis Method
  • Proxy Indicators
  • Distance from development features
  • Coastal Population Pressure

Reefs Classified
Reefs Threatened by Coastal Development
Low Medium High
20
Finding COASTAL DEVOPMENTthreatens an
estimated one-third of Caribbean coral reefs.
Estimated threat
21
Threat Sediment and Pollution from Inland Sources
  • Land clearing
  • Poor agricultural practices
  • Fertilizer and pesticide runoff

22
Watersheds are critical units for analysis and
management
Elevation
Puerto Rico
23
Watersheds are critical units for analysis and
management
Watersheds Rivers
Puerto Rico
24
Watersheds are critical units for analysis and
management
Pour points
Puerto Rico
25
Watershed-based analysis
26
Model Overview
  • Watershed-based Analysis
  • Relative erosion rates are estimated for all land
    areas
  • Relative erosion rates (and sediment delivery)
    are summarized by watershed
  • Sediment dispersion estimated from river mouths

27
Analysis Method
  • Relative Erosion Potential
  • USDAs Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation
    (RUSLE)
  • Combines four factors into single index
  • slope
  • precipitation
  • soil characteristics
  • land cover type

28
Analysis Method
  • Relative Erosion Potential
  • USDAs Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation
    (RUSLE)
  • Combines four factors into single index
  • slope
  • precipitation
  • soil characteristics
  • land cover type

29
Land Cover Type Effects Erosion Rates
Relative Erosion Rate
Land Cover Type
30
Erosion Factors by Land Cover Type
LAND COVER CATEGORY RELATIVE EROSION RATE  
Forest 15 15
Shrubland 45 45
Woody Savanna 60 60
Savannas 80 80
Grasslands 125 125
Permanent Wetlands 80 80
Croplands 210 210
Urban and Built-up 210 210
Cropland/Natural 120 120
31
Relative Erosion Potential four factors used
Land Cover Type
Slope
Soil Porosity
Precipitation
32
Relative Erosion Potential (REP)
33
Relative Erosion Potential (REP)
34
Relative Erosion Potential (REP)
Mean REP by watershed
35
Relative Sediment Delivery
Sum of REP for watershed, adjusted
by watershed size, is assigned to the river
mouth
36
Sediment Dispersion
Plumes estimated based on sediment delivery
and distance from the river mouth
37
Reefs Classified by Sediment Threat
Low Medium High
38
Finding SEDIMENT AND POLLUTION FROM INLAND
SOURCES threaten more than one-third of Caribbean
coral reefs.
Estimated threat
39
Population Pressure
  • - simple, but meaningful indicator

40
Scenarios
  • Open
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