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Chaordic Systems Thinking

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Title: Chaordic Systems Thinking


1

NOSMO Methodologendag 2005 Methodological
Aspects of Chaos and Complexity in Organisation
and Management
Frans M. van Eijnatten Eindhoven University of
Technology, NL
25 November 2005
2

Contents of This Presentation Part 0
0
Contents of This Presentation
3
Contents of This Presentation Part 0

0
Part A Some Chaos and Complexity
Definitions Part B Methodological Aspects of
CST Part C Connectivity Theme Part D
Consciousness Theme Part E Indeterminacy
Theme Part F Emergence Theme Part G
Conclusions and Publications
4
Contents of This Presentation Part 0
0
Part 1 to 4, and 6 only Summary
Part 1 A short History of Chaos and
Complexity Part 2 CC in Organisation and
Management Part 3 CST Some Foundations Part
4 Chaordic Systems Basic Concepts Part 5
Measurement of Chaordic Phenomena Part 6
Conclusions and Publications
Part 5 Focus
5

Some CC Definitions Part A
A
Some Chaos and Complexity Definitions
6
Chaos Some Definitions
Mathematical concept in nonlinear dynamics to
delin- eate systems that vary according to
precise determi-nistic laws but appear to behave
in a random fashion. Li Yorke,
1975 The qualitative study of unstable
a-periodic behaviour in deterministic nonlinear
dynamical systems . Kellert, 1993
7
Chaos Some Definitions
Recurrent, random-like, and a-periodic
behaviour generated from deterministic nonlinear
equations with sensitive dependence on initial
conditions of the system . Huajie Liu
(1999)
8
Complexity Some Definitions
Name given to the emerging field of research
that ex- plores systems in which a great many
independent agents are interacting with each
other in many ways . Waldrop,
1992 There are five sorts of complexity Random
complexity, probabilistic complexity,
deterministic chaos, emergent complexity and
newtonian dissipative structures.
Maguire McKelvey, 1999
9
Chaos and Complexity Definitions
  • chaos Anarchy, mayhem, bedlam, disarray,
    confusion,
  • utter mess, complete absence of order.
  • Chaos How complex things arise from simple
    systems.
  • Simple non-linear systems lead to extremely
    complex
  • behaviour.
  • Complexity How simple things arise from
    complex
  • systems. Position in between order and
    disorder
  • (edge of chaos).
  • The collection of scientific disciplines
    concerned with
  • finding patterns among collections of
    behaviours or
  • phenomena, across a multitude of scales in an
    effort
  • to detect their laws of pattern generation or
    rules that
  • explain the patterns observed.

10
CC in OM Basic Concepts
  • Chaord Any self-organising, adaptive,
    nonlinear, complex
  • organism, organisation or community, whether
    physical,
  • biological or social, the behaviour of which
    harmoniously
  • blends characteristics of both order and
    chaos.
  • Chaordic Anything simultaneously orderly and
    chaotic
  • patterned in a way dominated neither by order
    nor chaos
  • existing in the phase between order and
    chaos.
  • Chaordic System A complex and dynamical
    arrangement
  • of connections between elements forming a
    unified whole
  • the behaviour of which is both unpredictable
    (chaotic) and
  • patterned (orderly) ... simultaneously.
  • Chaordic Systems Thinking A lens, a way of
    thinking, and
  • subsequently an approach to designing a
    complex
  • organisational system that recognises the
    enterprise not
  • as a fixed structure, but as flow .

11
Methodological Aspects Part B
B
The Measurement of Chaordic Phenomena
12

Measurement
  • Basic Question
  • How to measure in a qualitative way the
    occurence of chaordic phenomena in companies
    such as
  • Emergence, coherence and leap-like changes
  • Bifurcation and weak signals
  • Connectivity (dependence without causality)
  • Interior aspects of both individuals and
    collectives

13

Methods and Techniques (1)
Chaordic Systems Thinking
Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Some Explorations
14
Some Empirical Results Management
Perceptions Prior to and Following Intensive
Dialogue
Van Eijnatten Van Galen, 2005
15
Further empirical results Research- ers
estimates fol- lowing extensive analysis of
longi- tudinal observa- tional data
Van Eijnatten Van Galen, 2005
16

Chaordic Systems Thinking
Methodological Requirements
  • Emphasis on both wholes and parts (holons)
  • Ability to trace emergent processes which sub-
  • stantiate on the basis of intensive
    interaction
  • of the parts
  • Analysis of (real time) dynamical instead of
  • static phenomena
  • Identify weak signals instead of largest common
  • denominators

17

CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
  • Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
    Linde, 2002)
  • Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
    Gerard, 1998)
  • Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
    Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
  • PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
    / 2002a)
  • Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
    Keizer, 2002)
  • Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
    (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
  • Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
    Wetzels, 1998)

18
Connectivity Theme Part C
C
The Measurement of Wholes or Holons (Connectivi
ty Theme)
19
AssumptionsUnderpinning the Classical Newtonian
Worldview
  • Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
  • Reductionists Assumption
  • Determinists Assumption
  • Preservationists Assumption
  • Interventionists Assumption

20
Reductionists Assumption
  • Every object is precisely equal to the sum of its
    parts nothing more and nothing less.
  • A pure reductionist is one who breaks down
    wholes into their component parts as a primary
    means of simplifying his or her world.

21
  • Connectivity
  • The Principle The organisation is an unbroken
    and unbreakable unity a wholeness in which no
    thing can exist or occur independently of the
    whole a pattern of active relationships between
    elements whose meaning is derived solely and
    entirely from their connection to the whole.
  • Design Rule Think globally, act locally.

22
Debunking of Classical Assumptions by the New
Science
  • Consciousness annuls the Materialist/
    Empiricists Assumption
  • Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
    Assumption
  • Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists
    Assumption
  • Dissipation renounces the Preservationists
    Assumption
  • Emergence disavows the Interventionists
    Assumption

23
Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
Assumption
  • An enterprise is both a whole and a part a
    whole/ part or holon.
  • No part can exist independently of the whole nor
    can any whole be sustained separately from its
    parts.

24
  • Holon Entity or agent that is autonomous with
    respect to
  • one aspect, and dependent with respect to
    another aspect
  • both whole and part of a bigger whole at the
    same time.
  • Holarchy System of holons that cooperate to
    achieve goal
  • or objective.
  • Holonic Capacity A holons ability to operate
    with greater
  • mindfulness, expanded awareness, control- and
    response-
  • ability.
  • Holonic Potential The possibility, eventuality,
    or likelyhood
  • of future occurences of emergence.

25
Definition of a Holon (1) Entity that is both a
whole, and part of a bigger whole, at the same
time Structure that is both autonomous and
dependent
A Holon
26
Definition of a Holon (2) Entity that is both a
whole, and part of a bigger whole, at the same
time, indefinitely, unendingly, all the way up,
and all the way down
Higher-Level Holon
Lower-level Holon
27
Individual versus Collective Holon
Individual Holon
Collective Holon
28
Holons Horizontal and Vertical Dimensions
Vertical Dimension 'Holonic Depth' or Holonic
Capacity (Different Levels of Complexity)
Horizontal Dimension 'Holonic Width' or Holonic
Aggregation (Same Level of Complexity)
29
Holonic Capacity
Some Examples of Holons with Various Degrees of
Holonic Capacity or Depth
Complex Holon
Whole - (Macro)
Educated Holon
Whole - (Macro)
Simple Holon
Whole - (Macro)
(Micro) - Part
(Micro) - Part
(Micro) - Part
30
Learning Discontinuous Growth in Holonic Capacity
Holon's
Development Level 5
Levels of Depth
Self- Transcendence
Development Level 4
Development Level 3
Development Level 2
Self- Dissolution
Development Level 1
31
Connectivity Theme End of Part C
How to assess Connectivity? (Measurement of
Wholes or Holons)
32

CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Measurement of Wholes/Holons
  • Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
    Linde, 2002)
  • Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
    Gerard, 1998)
  • Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
    Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
  • PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
    / 2002a)
  • Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
    Keizer, 2002)
  • Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
    (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
  • Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
    Wetzels, 1998)

33
Consciousness Theme Part D
D
The Measurement of Interior Aspects (Consciousne
ss Theme)
34
AssumptionsUnderpinning the Classical Newtonian
Worldview
  • Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
  • Reductionists Assumption
  • Determinists Assumption
  • Preservationists Assumption
  • Interventionists Assumption

35
Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
  • The only true reality is that which may be known
    by the five senses.
  • A pure empiricist is one who must be able to see,
    hear, touch, taste or smell some thing before
    crediting it as existent.

36
Chaordic System Properties
  • Consciousness
  • The Principle Mind is a fundamental groundstate
    of an organisation.
  • Design Rule If you want to change a sys-tems
    reality, you must first change its mind.

37
Debunking of Classical Assumptions by the New
Science
  • Consciousness annuls the Materialist/
    Empiricists Assumption
  • Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
    Assumption
  • Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists
    Assumption
  • Dissipation renounces the Preservationists
    Assumption
  • Emergence disavows the Interventionists
    Assumption

38
Consciousness annuls the Materialist/Empiricists
Assumption
  • Both matter and mind comprise the basic
    ingredients of an organisation.

39
Chaordic Concepts V
Wilbers Two-by-two table consisting
of four cells Quadrants which are
produced by two dichotomies Individual
versus Collective, and Interior
versus Exterior Exterior The
outside of a holon, its material base
What can be empirically and
objectively measured What
can be perceived by our five senses
What can be known by description.
Interior The inside of a holon, its
consciousness What cannot be
empirically, objectively measured
What cannot be perceived by our five
senses What must be
interpreted What can be
known only by acquaintance
40
Wilbers Quadrants
Interior
Exterior
Individual
behavioural
intentional
I
It
We
It
cultural
social
Collective
41
Wilbers Quadrants
Interior
Exterior
Individual
behavioural
intentional
"Complexity in Awareness"
"Complexity in Actions"
I
It
We
It
cultural
social
Collective
42
Consciousness Theme End of Part D
How to assess Consciousness ? (Measurement
of Interior Aspects, Complexity in Awareness)
43

CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Measurement of Interior Aspects
  • Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
    Linde, 2002)
  • Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
    Gerard, 1998)
  • Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
    Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
  • PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
    / 2002a)
  • Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
    Keizer, 2002)
  • Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
    (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
  • Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
    Wetzels, 1998)

44
Indeterminacy Theme Part E
E
The Measurement of Weak Signals (Indeterminacy
Theme)
45
AssumptionsUnderpinning the Classical Newtonian
Worldview
  • Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
  • Reductionists Assumption
  • Determinists Assumption
  • Preservationists Assumption
  • Interventionists Assumption

46
Determinists Assumption
  • Every event is a cause ultimately producing a
    singular effect which in turn, becomes the
    cause of a subsequent effect.
  • A pure determinist is one who is confident in his
    or her belief that for all intents and purposes,
    there is but one future awaiting us that was
    literally decided by the initial conditions.

47
  • Indeterminacy
  • The Principle The organisation is so dynamically
    complex that any link between cause and effect is
    necessarily obscured. The future, therefore, can
    never be known in advance.
  • Design Rule Stop wasting valuable time and
    resources planning for the there and then when
    the future is being created here and now.

48
Debunking of Classical Assumptions by the New
Science
  • Consciousness annuls the Materialist/
    Empiricists Assumption
  • Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
    Assumption
  • Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists
    Assumption
  • Dissipation renounces the Preservationists
    Assumption
  • Emergence disavows the Interventionists
    Assumption

49
Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists Assumption
  • In the dynamical complexity of the enter-prise,
    every event is both cause and effect.
    Furthermore, any link between the two is
    inescapably obscured rendering the future from
    the next moment on, unknowable.

50
Chaordic Concepts VIII
  • Time Conceptual dimension wherein change
    occurs either
  • as an empirical observation, or as
    conceptualised through
  • abstracted analysis.
  • History Generic term for information about a
    holons past.

51
Traditional Concept of Time
Traditional Linear Approach Uni-Causal Chain of
Events

You can predict the future on the basis of your
knowledge about the past and the present, by a
statistical process of extrapolation, or linear
planning.
52
New Concept of Time
Chaordic Systems Thinking Concept of
Indeterminacy

The future is principally unknowable, in advance.
Therefore, planning can only be used for the
purpose of priority setting in the present.
53
The future might be observable as a weak
signal in the present
B
b
Complexity and Coherence
t0 Present
t1 Future

B
strong signals
A
b
weak signal
Time
54
CST Concept of Time No Linear Planning but the
Creation of Desirable Future Scenarios in the
Present

Traditional Linear Approach Uni-Causal Chain of
Events

Past
Present
Future
leads to
leads to
Now
Vision
Memory
Chaordic Systems Thinking Consider only the
Moment of Now
55
Indeterminacy Theme End of
Part E
How to assess Indeterminacy ? (Measurement
of Weak Signals)
56

CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Measurement of Weak Signals
  • Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
    Linde, 2002)
  • Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
    Gerard, 1998)
  • Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
    Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
  • PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
    / 2002a)
  • Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
    Keizer, 2002)
  • Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
    (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
  • Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
    Wetzels, 1998)

57
Emergence Theme Part F
F
The Measurement of Surprise (Emergence Theme)
58
AssumptionsUnderpinning the Classical Newtonian
Worldview
  • Materialist/Empiricists Assumption
  • Reductionists Assumption
  • Determinists Assumption
  • Preservationists Assumption
  • Interventionists Assumption

59
  • Emergence
  • The Principle The developmental tendency of an
    organisation is toward ascending levels of
    coherence and complexity.
  • Design Rule Design the system to fully op-timize
    its inherent capacity for self-organisat-ion,
    self-reference, and self-replication.

60
Debunking of Classical Assumptions by the New
Science
  • Consciousness annuls the Materialist/
    Empiricists Assumption
  • Connectivity abrogates the Reductionists
    Assumption
  • Indeterminacy refutes the Determinists
    Assumption
  • Dissipation renounces the Preservationists
    Assumption
  • Emergence disavows the Interventionists
    Assumption

61
Emergence disavowes the Interventionists
Assumption
  • As an organisation advances on its traject-ory
    toward ever-higher orders of coherence and
    complexity, it must both differentiate into the
    many and integrate as one.

62
Chaordic Concepts VI
  • Sigmoid Curve S-shaped response graph that
    resembles trends
  • in the life cycle of many living things or
    phenomena.
  • Bifurcation Qualitative change in an
    attractor's structure.
  • Transition from a stable phase into a
    unstable phase. Act of
  • dividing a single state into two or more
    states. Oscillation be-
  • tween two or more states.
  • Butterfly Effect Undetectable differences in
    starting conditions
  • can lead complex holons through a series of
    bifurcations, to vastly
  • different end points. The formal term is for
    this phenomenon is
  • Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions
    (SDIC).
  • Eye / Cross in the Chaos Area in which a holon
    is under the influ-
  • ence of different attractors.
  • Edge of Chaos State in which the holon is
    balanced between
  • stability (order) and anarchy (chaos), in
    which spontaneous self-

63
Chaordic Concepts VII
  • Complexity Complexity can only exist if two
    aspects are
  • present at the same time Distinction and
    connection.
  • Connection leads to order, distinction leads
    to disorder.
  • Postion in between order and disorder (edge
    of chaos).
  • Coherence An allignment of context, viewpoint,
    purpose,
  • and action. Maximal satisfaction of multiple
    constraints.
  • Coherence requires connection and mutual
    support of the
  • different beliefs, mere consistency is not
    sufficient.
  • Fractal Repetition of self-similar patterns
    across levels or
  • scale A fractal element reflects and
    represents the
  • characteristics of the whole, in the sense
    that similar
  • patterns of behaviour are found at different
    levels.
  • In fractals, repeated properties denote the
    multiple levels
  • of a holon.

64
Discontinuous GrowthJumping the Sigmoid Curve
65
Edge of Chaos / Eye or Cross in the Chaos
66
Reflection Scenarios
- Quadrant I Scenario
which is characterized by doing old things,
embedded in old thinking -
Quadrant II Scenario which is characterized by
doing new things, embedded in old
thinking - Quadrant III Scenario which is
characterized by doing old things,
embedded in new thinking - Quadrant IV
Scenario which is characterized by doing new
things, embedded in new thinking
67
Emergence Theme End of Part F
How to assess Emergence ? (Measurement of
Surprise)
68

CST Qualitative Methods and Techniques
Measurement of Surprise
  • Learning History / Narrative Method (Basten
    Linde, 2002)
  • Reflective/Generative Dialogue (Ellinor
    Gerard, 1998)
  • Participative Observation/ Simulation (Van
    Eijnatten Vink, 2002)
  • PPP Chaordic Change Approach (Fitzgerald, 1996
    / 2002a)
  • Holographic Decision-Making (Van Eijnatten
    Keizer, 2002)
  • Emergent Leadership Dolphin Training
    (Fitzgerald, 2002b)
  • Reflection Scenarios/Context Management (Peters
    Wetzels, 1998)

69
Conclusions and Publications Part G
G
Methodological Aspects of Chaos and
Complexity in Organisation and
Management Conclusions and Publications
70

Conclusions
  • The New Science of Chaos and Complexity in
    Organisation and Management is well on its way
    to become a new paradigm in Manage-ment Science,
    that allows the development of organizations of
    which the aim is to achieve real novelty. But...
    more efforts are needed to develop new methods
    of measurement which respect the chaordic
    properties.

71
Conclusions Towards Real Novelty
Real Novelty
72
Conclusions Towards Real Novelty
Goal
Known
Unknown
Improvement or Optimisation
Known
Renewal
Path
Real Novelty
Unknown
Renewal
73
Further Reading All References
Eijnatten, F.M. van (2005), Articles about Chaos
and Complexity in Organisation and Management.
Eindhoven Technische Universiteit,
WWW http//www.chaosforum.com/nieuws/Eijnatten.ht
ml.
74
Further Participation
Join the NOSMO Socio-Cybernetics Working
Group Register at http//www.chaosforum.com/nie
uwspagina/wsc.htm
75
NOSMO Methodology Workshop 2005 Socio-Cybernetics
Working Group 25 November 2005
Thank you for your Attention
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