Leadership For Our Future

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Leadership For Our Future
Steve Gunderson - The Greystone Group, Inc.
February 2004
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Our Goal

• To understand the changing
• American Workforce
• and the need for bold leadership!

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• 1st, the American Revolution
• 2nd, the Agricultural Revolution
• 3rd, the Industrial Revolution
• 4th, the Information Revolution
• Now, the
• WORKFORCE Revolution

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The Challenges of Today
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Economy Peaked in March 2001

• Unemployment went from 4 to its highest in 9
  years.

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But Signs of Recovery Exist Even in Jobs

• January unemployment 5.6
• Non-farm payroll 112,000
• Manufacturing lost only 11,000 jobs

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January Unemployment

• 8.3 Million (5.6)White 4.9Black 10
  .5Asian 7.3Hispanic 5.2
• Bureau of Labor Statistics

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January Youth Unemployment

• (16.7)
• White Youth 14.1
• Black Youth 32.9
• Hispanic Youth 22.2 Bureau of Labor
  Statistics

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The Workforce in Transition

• February -159,000
• March -110,000
• April -20,000
• May -28,000
• June -14,000
• July -45,000
• August -25,000
• September 67,000
• October 88,000
• November 43,000
• December 1,000
• January (04) 112,000

Total -90,000
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Permanent Job Restructuring

• Declining Non-Farm Employment
• January, 2003 130,190,000
• January, 2004 130,155,000
• -35,000 less workers
• Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Tomorrows Workforce
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Workforce Demographics are Changing
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• Labor Force Growth
• 1.6 annually in past 50 years
• .6 annually in next 50 years
• Labor Force Aging
• Workers over 55 13 of the workforce
• By 2020 20 of the workforce

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Civilian Labor Force by Generation
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The Changing Workforce

• By age, in millions
• Group 2000 2010 in 2000 in 2010
• 16-24 22.7 26 16.1 16.5
• 25-54 99.9 104.9 71.0 66.6
• 55 18.1 26.6 12.9 16.9

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Workforce Diversity

• Group Today 2010 2050
• White 73 65 53
• (Non-Hispanic)
• Hispanic 11 16 24
• Black 12 13 14
• Asian 5 7.3 11

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Wisconsins Population

• Group 2000 2025
• White 89 83
• (Non-Hispanic)
• Black 6 9
• Native American 1 1
• Asian 2 2
• Hispanic 3 4

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Growth Rates by Race/Ethnicity2000-2010

• White (Non-Hispanic) .5 per year
• Black 1.9 per year
• Asian 3.7 per year
• Hispanic 3.7 per year

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White, Non-Hispanic by Regions
U.S Census Bureau, Mathamatica 2001 National Job
Corps Study, Bureau of Justice Statistics, MTCI.
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Black, Non-Hispanic by Regions
U.S Census Bureau, Mathamatica 2001 National Job
Corps Study, Bureau of Justice Statistics, MTCI.
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Hispanic, by Regions
U.S Census Bureau, Mathamatica 2001 National Job
Corps Study, Bureau of Justice Statistics, MTCI.
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Wisconsins Projected Growth by Race/Ethnicity
2000-2025

• White 3
• (Non-Hispanic)
• Black 53
• Native American 28
• Asian 110
• Hispanic 73

U.S Census Bureau
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By 2010

• Youth labor will increase by 3.4 million
• 41 million new workers will enter the workforce

NCEE Report Towards a National Workforce
Education and Training Policy
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By 2030

• 76 million baby boomers retire
• 46 million Gen Xers enter the workforce

NCEE Report Towards a National Workforce
Education and Training Policy
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We are Facing a Labor Shortage
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Labor Demand Will Outstrip Supply
Employment Policy Foundation
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• 1980-2000 Native workforce grew by 44
• 2000-2020
• Native workforce grows by 0

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We are Facing a Skill Shortage
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Projected Skill and Unskilled Gap in 2010 and
2020

• 2010 2020
• Skilled Worker Gap 5.3m 14m
• Unskilled Worker Gap 1.7m 7m
• Totals 7m 21m

Carnevale, Anthony P.
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Cumulative New Jobs by Selected Occupation
2006-2031
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• 75 of new job growth requires some level of
  post-high school training

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Employment Change by Education 1992-2002
Employment Policy Foundation tabulation of BLS
Statistics
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Education Attainment National Vs. Local
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• 1980 2000 19 growth in workers with
  post-high school education
• 2000 2020 4 growth in workers with
  post-high school education

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Wisconsin High School Graduates

• 2002 60,575
• 2014 58,109
• -A 4.1 decrease

ACT and WICHE
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Wisconsin Graduates 2014

• White 81
• (Non-Hispanic)
• Black 5
• Native American 4
• Asian 4
• Hispanic 8

ACT and WICHE
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The Challenge of the Next Generation of Workers
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Youth Unemployment Rates

• January Youth Unemployment 16.7
• White Youth 14.1
• Black Youth 32.9
• Hispanic Youth 22.2 Bureau of Labor
  Statistics

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Youth Unemployment Rates
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Reality

• As of 2000
• 7 of White Students
• 11 of Black Students
• 38 of Hispanic Students
• did NOT finish high school

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Reality

• Dropout rates most impact the growing segments of
  our population.

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Dropout Trends for Those Age 16-24 by Ethnicity
Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Center for
Education Statistics, U.S. Department of
Commerce.
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Dropout Trends for Those Age 18-24 by Region
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The Skill Challenge

• Business investment in training fell 18 between
  1988 and 1997.
• 53 of workers are employed by small business
  with few training opportunities.

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Education Matters

• January 2003 Unemployment by Level of Education
• Less than high school diploma 8.8
• High school grad, no college 4.9
• Some college/associate degree 4.5
• Bachelors degree and higher 2.9
• Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Tomorrows Workplace
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Employment by Major Occupation Groups in
millions

• 2000 2010 Growth
• Management/Business/
• Financial 15.5 17.3 13
• Professional 26.7 33.7 26
• Service 26 31.1 19
• Sales 15.5 17.3 11
• Office/Administrative 23.8 26 9
• Farm/Fish/Forestry 1.4 1.48 3
• Construction 7.4 8.4 13
• Installation/Maintenance 5.8 6.4 11
• Production 13 13.8 5
• Transportation 10 11.6 15

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Wisconsin Employment by Major Industry Division,
2000 to 2010
Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development,
November 2003
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Comparative Projected Growth 2000 to 2010
U.S. Wisconsin Service 19
19 Transportation 15 6 Finance,
Ins., Realty 13 8.7 Construction 13
9.5 Manufacturing 5 -2
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Productivity is Changing Americas Workplace

• 1980 1995 1.4 annually
• 1996 2002 2.6 annually
• Total Productivity Increase, 96 02
• Overall 28.7
• Manufacturing 47.3

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The American Economy is the Worlds Economy
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The Worlds Economies
Business Week/September 29, 2003
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Growth Across the Globe

• 2003 2004
• China 8.2 7.7
• S. Korea 2.9 5.1
• U.S. 3.1 4.4
• Brazil 1.3 3.5
• Canada 2.0 3.3
• Mexico 1.7 3.3
• Britain 2.0 2.6
• Japan 2.4 2.0
• Euro Zone .6 1.9

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Comparative Manufacturing Wages, 2001

• Japan 16.46
• U.S 16.14
• Europe 14.13
• Singapore 6.72
• Korea 5.69
• Taiwan 5.18
• Mexico 2.08
• Brazil 2.04
• China .61

Federal Reserve of Dallas, Issue 5,
September/October 2003
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Comparing Education, College Graduates
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In Summary
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Americas Workforce is Changing

• Transferring jobs to a new generation
• Workplace is global not domestic
• Jobs require more skills
• Workforce is more diverse
• The need for better education/training is
  significant

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By 2010

• 41 million new workers will enter the workforce
• Hispanic and Asian workers will increase by 43
  each
• Black workers will increase by 21
• White workers will increase by 9
• We will witness a 46 increase in workers over 55
• The number of working women will increase by 10
  million
• Over 75 of new jobs will require post-secondary
  education

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Percent of Workers with Some Post-Secondary
Training
Carnevale, Anthony P. and Richard A. Fry.
Crossing the Great Divide. Educational Testing
Services, 2000.
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Growth of the Non-Traditional Student
BaseDesignation characteristics 25 year old or
older and part-time attendance

• Between 1970 and 1990, non-traditionally
  classified students experienced a marked increase
  in attendance.
• Students older than 25 years were 42 of the
  student body in 1990, up from 28 in 1970. The
  percentage over 25 years dropped slightly in 2000
  and is projected to remain constant through 2010.
  
• Part-time students also rose from 32 in 1970 to
  43 in 1990. Again, the proportion dropped
  slightly in 2000 and is projected to drop
  slightly more to 39 by 2010.
• Students who fulfill both characteristics over
  25 and attending part-time also rose
  accordingly from 20 in 1970 to 30 in 1990,
  dropped to 27 in 2000 and is projected at 26 in
  2010.

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Individual Income Tax Revenue Projections

• By CBO Projections, in billions
• Individual Income Taxes
• 2003 791
• 2006 1,013
• 2010 1,392
• 2013 1,916

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(No Transcript)
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But Remember This

• In 2003, the U.S. paid 42 B in unemployment
  compensation
• vs. 16 B in federal aid to higher education
• vs. 3 B in federal job training funds

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Our Challenge

• 1. We must Communicate the Crisis.
• 2. We must make Workforce Preparation an
  investment in Americas future.

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This is Leadership For Our Future!
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• Steve Gunderson
• www.greystonegp.com