The Future for Food-Producing Landscapes P.J. Jones, J. Tzanopoulos, S. R. Mortimer - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Future for Food-Producing Landscapes P.J. Jones, J. Tzanopoulos, S. R. Mortimer

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Average UK diet was mapped using household food consumption data and published ... Effect of adoption of a healthier diet will be to deepen these trends ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Future for Food-Producing Landscapes P.J. Jones, J. Tzanopoulos, S. R. Mortimer


1
The Future for Food-Producing Landscapes P.J.
Jones, J. Tzanopoulos, S. R. Mortimer Bruce
Traill School of Agriculture, Policy
Development, University of Reading, UK.
2
The origins of this analysis
  • Relu-funded project
  • Implications of a Nutrition Driven Food Policy
    for Land Use and the Rural EnvironmentInvestigat
    e the effectiveness of policies designed to
    promote healthy eating, the potential for
    modified agricultural husbandry methods to
    produce healthier food products and the
    implications for the countryside.
  • Three market/policy scenarios studied, including
  • E W population adhering to DoH guidelines for
    healthy eating policy and market conditions
    remain unchanged

?
3
Land use implications of the healthy diet
scenario - methodology
  • Apply changes in food demand to a linear
  • programming model of E W agriculture
  • Average UK diet was mapped using household food
    consumption data and published tables used to
    express this diet in terms of nutrients consumed
  • A quadratic programming model was used to adjust
    existing diet to comply with DOH nutrient
    guidelines by minimising the changes to existing
    diet (also minimal expense changes)
  • New diet (ie new mix food items) is converted
    into constituent agricultural commodities using a
    conversion matrix based on recipe information
    (these values are imposed as proxy demand values
    in the LUAM)
  • The LUAM is run to project the land use
    implications of the changed diet

4
Scenario data and assumptions
  • DoH nutrient change guidelines
  • total fat restricted to a third of energy intake
  • Protein and sugar (either free or as total
    carbohydrates) are restricted
  • higher fruit and vegetable consumption higher
    consumption of dietary fibre
  • Calorie intake (average) 2,500 kcal per day
    (men), and 2,000 kcal (women)
  • Compliance with DoH guidelines for healthy eating
  • Change in commodity demand
  • Home produced share assumed as at present
  • Prices and technology unchanged
  • Policy based on Fischler-reformed CAP, plus
    policy changes in pipeline

    Reference position Healthy diet scenario Change  
  Milk 7,727 4,447 -42.20  
  Beef Veal 444 377 -15.46  
  Mutton Lamb 128 93 -28.16  
  Pork 435 350 -18.23  
  Poultry 518 577 9.81  
  Eggs 18 16 -9.61  
  Fish 251 352 35.88  
  Cereals 2,415 3,134 29.76  
  Sugar 684 454 -31.38  
  Oils Fat 355 339 -5.24  
  Potato 3,010 3,791 23.41  
  Green Vegetables 913 1,421 55.62  
  Other Vegetables 1,334 2,215 66.08  
  Fruit 1,766 2,696 52.69  
  Units g, ml or eggs per person per week. Units g, ml or eggs per person per week. Units g, ml or eggs per person per week.    
5
Results regional
6
Results uplands livestock
7
Land idling
8
Methodology JCA assessment
  • Landscape implications assessed for Joint
    Character Areas (JCA) using a semi-qualitative
    approach.
  • JCA 'profiles' in the CQC describe landscape
    visions the nature of change relative to the
    vision (maintained, enhanced, diverging or
    neglected)
  • For each JCA Classification Decision Trees used
    to identify land-use changes associated with
    positive, negative or neutral impacts on
    landscape character
  • LUAM projected changes in agricultural land-uses
    were assessed for their impact on landscape
    character
  • - Scored on a 3-point scale (-1 negative
    effect, 1 positive effect, 0 neutral effect)

9
Impact on landscape character CAP reform
  • Arable JCAs no change
  • 60 of arable dominated JCAs will not be affected
    while the rest may suffer both, positive or
    negative impacts.
  • Lowland pastoral JCAs mixed effects -
    predominately negative changes
  • Intensively farmed areas benefit reduced
    overgrazing
  • Extensively farmed areas negative
    under-grazing
  • Uplands JCAs predominantly negative -
    under-grazing land idling
  • South West - positive (overgrazing reduced)
  • North negative (under-grazing and land
    idling)
  • Mixed farming JCAs, mixed effect depending on
    existing intensity
  • Low intensity, pastoral landscapes - benefit from
    more grassland
  • High intensity arable landscapes no change

10
Impact on landscape character Healthy diet
  • Arable JCAs no change from the REF run
  • Lowland pastoral JCAs - negative changes from REF
  • Intensively farmed negative, reduced livestock
    numbers
  • Extensively farmed negative, extension of
    under-grazing
  • Uplands JCAs brunt of negative changes
    experienced here - more lost livestock
    under-grazing land idling
  • South West mildly negative (livestock numbers
    hold up better)
  • North negative (further under-grazing and land
    idling)
  • Mixed farming JCAs, similar to REF, mixed effect
    depending on existing intensity
  • Low intensity, pastoral-dominated benefit from
    more grassland
  • High intensity farming landscapes no change

11
Landscape impacts
12
Conclusions
  • Impacts of CAP reform - in terms of directions of
    change, LUAM results are consistent with other
    commentators and modelling exercises
  • Loss of livestock production (dairy in lowlands
    all types in uplands) - extensification
  • modest changes in lowland arable
  • Effect of adoption of a healthier diet will be to
    deepen these trends
  • Horticulture opportunities in the South East
    (some livestock losses dairy)
  • Extending livestock losses in uplands
  • Landscape effects mixed
  • lowland arable areas neutral
  • Lowland pasture beneficial under CAP reform,
    negative under changed diet
  • Uplands badly negative in nothern uplands,
    mixed effects in the South West
  • Timescale of HD scenario long-term, but some
    impacts of the HD scenario, would be driven by
    other forces (eg dairy contraction) - can already
    be seen in effect
  • A perfect storm of policy/market conditions
    gathering around upland agriculture, requiring a
    new vision for the uplands suitable policies
    for delivery - URGENT
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