Title: The Future for Food-Producing Landscapes P.J. Jones, J. Tzanopoulos, S. R. Mortimer
1The Future for Food-Producing Landscapes P.J.
Jones, J. Tzanopoulos, S. R. Mortimer Bruce
Traill School of Agriculture, Policy
Development, University of Reading, UK.
2The origins of this analysis
- Relu-funded project
- Implications of a Nutrition Driven Food Policy
for Land Use and the Rural EnvironmentInvestigat
e the effectiveness of policies designed to
promote healthy eating, the potential for
modified agricultural husbandry methods to
produce healthier food products and the
implications for the countryside. - Three market/policy scenarios studied, including
- E W population adhering to DoH guidelines for
healthy eating policy and market conditions
remain unchanged
?
3Land use implications of the healthy diet
scenario - methodology
- Apply changes in food demand to a linear
- programming model of E W agriculture
- Average UK diet was mapped using household food
consumption data and published tables used to
express this diet in terms of nutrients consumed - A quadratic programming model was used to adjust
existing diet to comply with DOH nutrient
guidelines by minimising the changes to existing
diet (also minimal expense changes) - New diet (ie new mix food items) is converted
into constituent agricultural commodities using a
conversion matrix based on recipe information
(these values are imposed as proxy demand values
in the LUAM) - The LUAM is run to project the land use
implications of the changed diet
4Scenario data and assumptions
- DoH nutrient change guidelines
- total fat restricted to a third of energy intake
- Protein and sugar (either free or as total
carbohydrates) are restricted - higher fruit and vegetable consumption higher
consumption of dietary fibre - Calorie intake (average) 2,500 kcal per day
(men), and 2,000 kcal (women)
- Compliance with DoH guidelines for healthy eating
- Change in commodity demand
- Home produced share assumed as at present
- Prices and technology unchanged
- Policy based on Fischler-reformed CAP, plus
policy changes in pipeline
Reference position Healthy diet scenario Change
Milk 7,727 4,447 -42.20
Beef Veal 444 377 -15.46
Mutton Lamb 128 93 -28.16
Pork 435 350 -18.23
Poultry 518 577 9.81
Eggs 18 16 -9.61
Fish 251 352 35.88
Cereals 2,415 3,134 29.76
Sugar 684 454 -31.38
Oils Fat 355 339 -5.24
Potato 3,010 3,791 23.41
Green Vegetables 913 1,421 55.62
Other Vegetables 1,334 2,215 66.08
Fruit 1,766 2,696 52.69
Units g, ml or eggs per person per week. Units g, ml or eggs per person per week. Units g, ml or eggs per person per week.
5Results regional
6Results uplands livestock
7Land idling
8Methodology JCA assessment
- Landscape implications assessed for Joint
Character Areas (JCA) using a semi-qualitative
approach. - JCA 'profiles' in the CQC describe landscape
visions the nature of change relative to the
vision (maintained, enhanced, diverging or
neglected) - For each JCA Classification Decision Trees used
to identify land-use changes associated with
positive, negative or neutral impacts on
landscape character - LUAM projected changes in agricultural land-uses
were assessed for their impact on landscape
character - - Scored on a 3-point scale (-1 negative
effect, 1 positive effect, 0 neutral effect)
9Impact on landscape character CAP reform
- Arable JCAs no change
- 60 of arable dominated JCAs will not be affected
while the rest may suffer both, positive or
negative impacts. - Lowland pastoral JCAs mixed effects -
predominately negative changes - Intensively farmed areas benefit reduced
overgrazing - Extensively farmed areas negative
under-grazing - Uplands JCAs predominantly negative -
under-grazing land idling - South West - positive (overgrazing reduced)
- North negative (under-grazing and land
idling) - Mixed farming JCAs, mixed effect depending on
existing intensity - Low intensity, pastoral landscapes - benefit from
more grassland - High intensity arable landscapes no change
10Impact on landscape character Healthy diet
- Arable JCAs no change from the REF run
- Lowland pastoral JCAs - negative changes from REF
- Intensively farmed negative, reduced livestock
numbers - Extensively farmed negative, extension of
under-grazing - Uplands JCAs brunt of negative changes
experienced here - more lost livestock
under-grazing land idling - South West mildly negative (livestock numbers
hold up better) - North negative (further under-grazing and land
idling) - Mixed farming JCAs, similar to REF, mixed effect
depending on existing intensity - Low intensity, pastoral-dominated benefit from
more grassland - High intensity farming landscapes no change
11Landscape impacts
12Conclusions
- Impacts of CAP reform - in terms of directions of
change, LUAM results are consistent with other
commentators and modelling exercises - Loss of livestock production (dairy in lowlands
all types in uplands) - extensification - modest changes in lowland arable
- Effect of adoption of a healthier diet will be to
deepen these trends - Horticulture opportunities in the South East
(some livestock losses dairy) - Extending livestock losses in uplands
- Landscape effects mixed
- lowland arable areas neutral
- Lowland pasture beneficial under CAP reform,
negative under changed diet - Uplands badly negative in nothern uplands,
mixed effects in the South West - Timescale of HD scenario long-term, but some
impacts of the HD scenario, would be driven by
other forces (eg dairy contraction) - can already
be seen in effect - A perfect storm of policy/market conditions
gathering around upland agriculture, requiring a
new vision for the uplands suitable policies
for delivery - URGENT