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Population Dynamics and Natural

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... (deforestation, desertification, urbanization) ... Urbanization Risk (2025) Natural Disaster Vulnerabilities ... dynamics such as urbanization can ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Population Dynamics and Natural


1
Population Dynamics and Natural Hazards
Applying Geospatial Analysis
Prepared by ISCIENCES LLC An examination of the
use of GIS to explore linkages between
environment and security
  • The Digital Earth
  • Geospatial Analysis Environment and
    Security in India

for further information contact Douglas S. Way
(principal investigator) way_at_isciences.com or
Richard C. Cicone cicone_at_isciences.com
2
  • Viewing Global Population Models
  • TerraViva! Spinning Earth digital Earth on the
    desktop
  • Free download at http//www.terraviva.net
  • Unique visualization of ORNL and CIESIN/UNEP
  • Global Population Models

3
Viewing Global Population Model
ORNL Landscan GP 98
CIESIN GPW 1990
4
  • An Application of Geospatial Analysis
  • Environmental Indications and Warning
  • Environmental Issues - Societal Stress
  • Food production, freshwater resources,
    water/air pollution,
  • land use change (deforestation,
    desertification, urbanization)
  • Affect public health, agriculture and industrial
    development,
  • demographic patterns, local through national
    political
  • alliances,economic growth, infrastructure
    planning,
  • crisis response capabilities.
  • Affect political, economic and social dynamics
  • And are exacerbated by
  • continued rapid population growth and migration
  • natural hazards and weather variability (shock)
    events

5
  • Value of GIS Technology
  • Environmental Issues are spatial in nature with
    global
  • to local origins
  • Environmental Issues are dynamic (process and
    time series)
  • Environmental Issues are subject to natural
    changes,
  • anthropogenic stressors and shock events
  • GIS facilitates trend analysis and what if
    scenarios
  • GIS provides a strong interface to remote
    sensing sources
  • Visualization is a strong analysis and
    communication tool
  • GIS provides a platform for the integration of
    other data

6
  • Environmental Outlook
  • South Asia with a focus on India
  • Urban population modeling
  • Population Density Change (1960, 1998, 2010)
  • Urbanization Risk (2025)
  • Natural Disaster Vulnerabilities severe storm
    risk

7
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8
Population Density 1998
9
(No Transcript)
10
1960 Population 424,391,200
1960 Population Density
11
2010 Population 1,182,171,000
12
Urbanization Risk 2025
13
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14
Quality Agricultural Land at Risk (2025)
15
Major Storm Tracks Risk Areas
16
Cyclone Vulnerability High 54.8 million Mod.
High 278.7 million Moderate 254.7 million
17
Cyclone 5B
18
Population Possibly
Impacted Dark Red Very High 2.6 million Red
High 2.5 million Orange
Mod. High 1.8 million Yellow Moderate
10 million
19
  • Summary
  • Digital Earth will introduce new ways for
    researchers to
  • assess interactions of humans and nature.
  • Land use change dynamics such as urbanization
    can
  • be readily captured by satellite remote
    sensing.
  • Subnational (disaggregated) population models
    assist
  • analysis of risk due to land use change, or
    natural hazards.
  • Cartographic modeling is of value to visualize
    change
  • dynamics and explore implications.
  • Data are becoming more complete, precise and
    accurate.
  • Trends and alternative scenarios can be modeled
    as well
  • as assist in their evaluation.
  • Built up spatial information systems can be
    used to examine
  • what if scenarios conduct rapid assessment
    of real events.
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