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Pandemic Influenza


Describe differences between annual and pandemic flu ... The worst pandemic of the last century, the 'Spanish Flu' of 1918, killed 500, ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Pandemic Influenza

Stanislaus County
Its Not Flu as UsualPandemic Influenza
PreparednessRenee CartierEmergency
Preparedness ManagerHealth Services Agency
  • It might not happen tomorrow, or in the next few
    years, but it is certain that there will be a
    bird flu pandemic which will affect humans within
    the next 10 years ... People need to wake up to
    this now.
  • --Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH
  • Testimony before the House Committee on
    International Relations
  • Avian Flu Addressing the Global Threat.
    Dec 7, 2005

  1. Describe differences between annual and pandemic
  2. Depict the possible impact of a flu pandemic on
    California and Stanislaus County for healthcare
  3. Explain some mitigation activities during a
    pandemic flu
  4. Next steps

Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Occurs every year within the winter months
  • Affects 5-20 of the US population
  • Occurs 3-4 times a century and can take place in
    any season. May come in waves of flu activity
    that could be separated by months
  • Experts predict an infection rate of 25-30 of
    population depending on the severity of the strain

Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Globally kills 500,000 to one million people each
    year36,000 to 40,000 in US
  • Most people recover within a week or two
  • The worst pandemic of the last century, the
    Spanish Flu of 1918, killed 500,000 in the US
    and 50 million worldwide
  • Usually associated with a higher severity of
    illness, and consequently, a higher risk of death

(No Transcript)
Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Deaths generally confined to at risk groups,
    such as the elderly (over 65), the young (aged
    6-23 months), those with medical conditions like
    lung, heart, and kidney disease, diabetes, cancer
    or compromised immune systems
  • All age groups may be at risk for infection, not
    just at risk groups. Otherwise fit adults
    could be at a relatively greater risk, based upon
    patterns of previous epidemics. For example,
    adults under age 35 (a key segment of the US
    workforce) were disproportionately affected
    during the 1918 pandemic

Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Vaccination is effective because the virus strain
    in circulation each winter can be fairly reliably
  • A vaccine against pandemic flu may not be
    available at the start of a pandemic. New
    strains of viruses must be accurately identified,
    and producing an effective vaccine could take six

Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Antiviral drugs are generally available for those
    most at risk of serious illness.
  • Antiviral drugs may be in limited supply, and
    their effectiveness will only be known
    definitively once the pandemic is underway.

Projected Impact on Healthcare Facilities(Assumed
Attack of 8 Week Duration)
  • 25 (127,500) of the population will become ill
  • Based upon severity, 4.4 (5,610) of those
    affected will require hospitalization
  • Of admitted patients 35 (1,964) will need
    critical care and 30 (1,683) will need
  • Of those hospitalized, 26.7 (1,498) will die

Projected Impact on Healthcare Facilities(Assumed
Attack of 8 Week Duration)
  • Hospital capacity would begin to exceed the
    States hospital bed capacity in week 2. By week
    5 capacity exceeded by 319
  • By week 5, the total number of critical beds
    would exceed capacity by 1212 and the need for
    ventilators would exceed the number available by
  • Deaths are estimated at 102,795 during an eight
    week period in the first wave

Key Functional Areas to Control Spread of Disease
  • Surveillance
  • Epidemiological investigation
  • Vaccine and antiviral operations
  • Non-Pharmaceutical Community Containment
  • Surge Capacity
  • Infection Control
  • Risk Communication

Mitigation Activities during Pandemic
  • Educating public on respiratory and hand hygiene
  • Planning for continuity of operations
  • Planning for inventory scarcity and disruption of
    essential supplies
  • Developing pharmaceutical solutions
  • Vaccine antiviral distribution
  • Implementing non-pharmaceutical community
    containment measures

  • Non-pharmaceutical community containment is a
    social distancing between members of the
    community by restricting or limiting public
    gatherings, events, or group activities.

Non-Pharmaceutical Community Containment Measures
  • Objectives
  • Prevent human cases before its efficiently
  • Slow the spread of disease and gain time to
    strengthen preparedness measures
  • Reduce the morbidity and mortality associated
    with pandemic
  • Measures can be applied at individual or
    community level to persons either ill or well

Non-Pharmaceutical Community Containment Measures
  • Individual Measures
  • Isolating ill persons (those with symptoms)
  • Quarantining well persons who have had contact
    with an ill person
  • Practicing good hand and respiratory hygiene
  • Using personal protective equipment (PPE) such as
    masks or gloves

Non-Pharmaceutical Community Containment Measures
  • Community Measures
  • Community Activity Restrictions
  • Mass/public gatherings
  • School closures
  • Limiting domestic and international travel

Next Steps
  • Inform and educate partner agencies Determine
    actions needed to prepare and respond to a
    pandemic flu.
  • Initiate community-wide planning
  • The patient care surge capacity needed during a
    pandemic will exceed hospital capacity and must
    be a community responsibility.
  • Develop Continuity of Business Plans
  • Likely to affect everyone in California, no
    amount of planning will allow business as usual
    in any sector of society or government