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Pandemic Influenza

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Describe differences between annual and pandemic flu ... The worst pandemic of the last century, the 'Spanish Flu' of 1918, killed 500, ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Pandemic Influenza


1
Stanislaus County
Its Not Flu as UsualPandemic Influenza
PreparednessRenee CartierEmergency
Preparedness ManagerHealth Services Agency
2
  • It might not happen tomorrow, or in the next few
    years, but it is certain that there will be a
    bird flu pandemic which will affect humans within
    the next 10 years ... People need to wake up to
    this now.
  • --Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH
  • Testimony before the House Committee on
    International Relations
  • Avian Flu Addressing the Global Threat.
    Dec 7, 2005

3
Goals
  1. Describe differences between annual and pandemic
    flu
  2. Depict the possible impact of a flu pandemic on
    California and Stanislaus County for healthcare
    facilities
  3. Explain some mitigation activities during a
    pandemic flu
  4. Next steps

4
Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • ANNUAL
  • Occurs every year within the winter months
  • Affects 5-20 of the US population
  • PANDEMIC
  • Occurs 3-4 times a century and can take place in
    any season. May come in waves of flu activity
    that could be separated by months
  • Experts predict an infection rate of 25-30 of
    population depending on the severity of the strain

5
Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Globally kills 500,000 to one million people each
    year36,000 to 40,000 in US
  • Most people recover within a week or two
  • The worst pandemic of the last century, the
    Spanish Flu of 1918, killed 500,000 in the US
    and 50 million worldwide
  • Usually associated with a higher severity of
    illness, and consequently, a higher risk of death

6
(No Transcript)
7
Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Deaths generally confined to at risk groups,
    such as the elderly (over 65), the young (aged
    6-23 months), those with medical conditions like
    lung, heart, and kidney disease, diabetes, cancer
    or compromised immune systems
  • All age groups may be at risk for infection, not
    just at risk groups. Otherwise fit adults
    could be at a relatively greater risk, based upon
    patterns of previous epidemics. For example,
    adults under age 35 (a key segment of the US
    workforce) were disproportionately affected
    during the 1918 pandemic

8
Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Vaccination is effective because the virus strain
    in circulation each winter can be fairly reliably
    predicted.
  • A vaccine against pandemic flu may not be
    available at the start of a pandemic. New
    strains of viruses must be accurately identified,
    and producing an effective vaccine could take six
    months.

9
Differences between Annual and Pandemic Flu
  • Antiviral drugs are generally available for those
    most at risk of serious illness.
  • Antiviral drugs may be in limited supply, and
    their effectiveness will only be known
    definitively once the pandemic is underway.

10
Projected Impact on Healthcare Facilities(Assumed
Attack of 8 Week Duration)
  • 25 (127,500) of the population will become ill
  • Based upon severity, 4.4 (5,610) of those
    affected will require hospitalization
  • Of admitted patients 35 (1,964) will need
    critical care and 30 (1,683) will need
    ventilators
  • Of those hospitalized, 26.7 (1,498) will die

11
Projected Impact on Healthcare Facilities(Assumed
Attack of 8 Week Duration)
  • Hospital capacity would begin to exceed the
    States hospital bed capacity in week 2. By week
    5 capacity exceeded by 319
  • By week 5, the total number of critical beds
    would exceed capacity by 1212 and the need for
    ventilators would exceed the number available by
    1350
  • Deaths are estimated at 102,795 during an eight
    week period in the first wave

12
Key Functional Areas to Control Spread of Disease
  • Surveillance
  • Epidemiological investigation
  • Vaccine and antiviral operations
  • Non-Pharmaceutical Community Containment
  • Surge Capacity
  • Infection Control
  • Risk Communication

13
Mitigation Activities during Pandemic
  • Educating public on respiratory and hand hygiene
    etiquette
  • Planning for continuity of operations
  • Planning for inventory scarcity and disruption of
    essential supplies
  • Developing pharmaceutical solutions
  • Vaccine antiviral distribution
  • Implementing non-pharmaceutical community
    containment measures

14
  • Non-pharmaceutical community containment is a
    social distancing between members of the
    community by restricting or limiting public
    gatherings, events, or group activities.

15
Non-Pharmaceutical Community Containment Measures
  • Objectives
  • Prevent human cases before its efficiently
    transmitted
  • Slow the spread of disease and gain time to
    strengthen preparedness measures
  • Reduce the morbidity and mortality associated
    with pandemic
  • Measures can be applied at individual or
    community level to persons either ill or well

16
Non-Pharmaceutical Community Containment Measures
  • Individual Measures
  • Isolating ill persons (those with symptoms)
  • Quarantining well persons who have had contact
    with an ill person
  • Practicing good hand and respiratory hygiene
  • Using personal protective equipment (PPE) such as
    masks or gloves

17
Non-Pharmaceutical Community Containment Measures
  • Community Measures
  • Community Activity Restrictions
  • Mass/public gatherings
  • School closures
  • Limiting domestic and international travel

18
Next Steps
  • Inform and educate partner agencies Determine
    actions needed to prepare and respond to a
    pandemic flu.
  • Initiate community-wide planning
  • The patient care surge capacity needed during a
    pandemic will exceed hospital capacity and must
    be a community responsibility.
  • Develop Continuity of Business Plans
  • Likely to affect everyone in California, no
    amount of planning will allow business as usual
    in any sector of society or government
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