ARE Day

1
Presidential Climate Action What are the
Issues? What are the candidates saying?
William Becker Presidential Climate Action
Project
2
What science is telling us

• Global warming is real.
• It is underway now.
• It is caused mostly by human activities.
• If allowed to go much farther, it will have
  disastrous consequences for our economy, health,
  security ecosystems.
• We have the tools to prevent this.
• We dont have much time.

3
How Far?Emission Reduction Goals for Industrial
Nations

• By 2015
• Stabilize global emissions IPCC
• By 2020 (compared to 1990)
• 25-40 Bali action plan
• 20-30 European Union

4
How fast?

• "If there's no action before 2012,
• that's too late. What we do in
• the next 2 to 3 years will
• determine our future. This is the defining
  moment. Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC
• The next president and congress must define a
  course next year in which the United States
  exerts leadership commensurate with our
  responsibility for the present dangerous
  situation Dr. Jim Hansen, NASA

5
Moving in Wrong DirectionMcKinsey Company 2030
Reference Case for U.S.

• By 2030
• CO2e emissions increase 35
• Carbon absorption decreases 7
• Carbon intensity
• per capita emissions
• improve
• Growth factors
• Population growth
• Buildings appliances
• More carbon-based power

6
Moving in Wrong DirectionEnergy Information
Administration - 2007
7
The challenge

• Building a post-carbon economy that works
• in the 21st Century, delivering
• Security
• Opportunity
• Stewardship

Incrementalism is innovations worst enemy. We
dont want continuous improvement, we want
radical change. Sam Walton
8
Old economy

• Oil dependence to cost economy 560 billion in
  2008
• 1.7 trillion lost in past five years
• 1 trillion transferred to oil-producing nations
  Oak Ridge National Lab

9
New economy

• United Nations Environment Programme Global
  green market to reach 2.7 trillion by 2020
• U.S investments in renewables 13 billion in
  2007
• U.S. wind capacity to increase 45 in 2008

10
New economy

• 100 billion
• investment could
• produce 2 million jobs
• in two years - Center for American Progress
• 500 billion investment could produce 5 million
  jobs in 10 years - Apollo Project
• National push could create 2.5 million new
  metropolitan jobs by 2018 - U.S. Conference of
  Mayors

11
Status of U.S. Policy

• Americans can always be counted on to do the
  right thing...after they have exhausted all other
  possibilities. Sir Winston Churchill

12
2009 End of denial

• We have many advantages in the fight against
  global warming, but time is not one of them.
  We Americans like to say that there is no
  problem we cant solve, however complicatedand
  now it is time for us to show those qualities
  once again. -

• I believe its one of the greatest moral
  challenges of our time.
• Not only is it real, but its here, and its
  effects give rise to a frightening new
  phenomenon the man-made natural disaster.

13
PCAP Mission

• Provide the 44th President of the United States
  with a comprehensive plan to take bold action on
  climate change within 100 days.

14
Project Background

• Location Wirth Chair, School of Public Affairs,
  University of Colorado Denver
• Staff 3.5 FTE
• Budget 2 million
• Project period
• Jan.1 07-Jan.31 09

15
Advisory Committee

• John Petersen, Arlington Institute
• Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism Solutions
• Michael Northrop, Rockefeller Bros. Fund
• Dr. David Orr, Oberlin College
• Theodore Roosevelt IV, Pew Center
• Larry Schweiger, President, National Wildlife
  Federation
• Jeremy Symons, National Wildlife Federation
• Dr. Gus Speth, Dean, School of Forestry
  Environmental Studies, Yale University
• Adm. Richard Truly (USN ret), former NASA
  Administrator NREL Director
• Heidi VanGenderen, Chief Climate Advisor,
  Colorado Governors Office

• Ray Anderson, Founder CEO, Interface Inc.
• Dr. D. James Baker, former NOAA Administrator
• Scott Bernstein, Center for Neighborhood
  Technologies
• April Bucksbaum, Baum Foundation
• Dianne Dillon-Ridgley, Chair, Plains Justice
• Brian Castelli, VP, Alliance to Save Energy
• Boyd Gibbons, past president, Johnson Foundation
• Gary Hart, U.S. Sen. (ret)
• Sheila Slocum Hollis, PartnerDuane Morris LLP
• Van Jones, President Founder, Ella Baker Center
  for Human Rights

16
300 ideas/100 days

• Economic Policy
• Climate Policy
• Energy Policy
• National Security
• Agriculture
• Buildings
• Mobility
• Federal government emissions
• Natural resource stewardship
• Ocean Ecology
• Freshwater resources
• Equity
• Adaptation
• Public health/safety
• International policy
• Presidential Leadership

17
Policy Questions

• Carbon pricing?
• Revenue distribution?
• Declining subsidies for fossil fuels?
• National RPS/EEPS?
• Moratorium on coal plants?
• Carbon reporting risk disclosure?
• Nuclear power?
• States vs. Feds?

18
Carbon Pricing Cap Trade

• Obama
• 100 auction
• 15 billion on RD
• Rest for rebates transition relief
• McCain
• Some allowances free
• Money spent on RD, low-income help
• Climate Change Credit Corp.
• PCAP
• All upstream
• Low administrative costs
• 100 auction
• Flexible
• Equitable
• Economy-wide
• Reductions measured in
• absolute tons

19
Carbon caps(1990 baseline)

• US 40 above today
• McCain
• 18 above by 2012
• Equal by 2020
• 22 cut by 2030
• 60 cut by 2050
• Obama
• Equal by 2020
• 80 cut by 2050
• PCAP
• 30 below by 2020
• 80 by 2050

20
Renewable Power

• Obama
• 10 RPS by 2012
• 15 billion/year RDD
• McCain
• No RPS
• Tax credit 10 of RD wages
• Even handed tax policy
• PCAP
• 30 RPS by 2020
• 50 RPS by 2050
• 30 billion/year RDD

21
Energy efficiency

• Obama
• Reduce consumption 15 below projected demand by
  2020
• McCain
• Loves it, but no specifics
• PCAP
• 25 cut from todays use by 2020
• 50 cut by 2050

22
Coal-fired generation

• Status
• 151 plants in pipeline in 2007
• Nearly 90 stopped
• McCain Obama
• Invest in clean coal RD
• PCAP
• No new conventional plants
• Clean life-cycle CO2
• Explore converting existing plants to natural gas
• Continue research
• but dont wait

23
Smart Grid

• Status
• Outdated grid inhibiting wind/solar/reliability
• Private investment underway
• Texas invests 4.9 billion
• Excel pilots in Boulder
• T. Boone Pickens plan
• Philip Anshutz plans
• 3 billion, 900-mile line
• Boulder, CO., piloting
• McCain
• Reduce red tape
• Obama
• Major investment

24
Nuclear power

• McCain
• 45 plants by 2030
• 100 long-term
• Obama
• First, solve storage, proliferation, safety
  problems
• PCAP
• Same as Obama

25
Transportation

• Obama
• 1 million plug-in hybrids by 2015
• Increase CAFÉ 4/year
• 7,000 tax credit for advanced vehicle purchases
• 4 billion in retooling tax credits to automakers
• McCain
• 5,000 tax credit for zero-carbon vehicles
• 300 million prize for battery breakthrough
• Enforce CAFE
• PCAP
• 50 mpg by 2025/200 mpg by 2050
• Reform Surface Transportation Program
• 1 billion in innovation awards

26
New Energy Economy

• Obama
• 150 billion for clean technologies
• 5 million green jobs in 10 years
• Grants for clean technology centers
• Green jobs training
• McCain
• 700,000 nuclear jobs
• 30,000 clean coal jobs
• PCAP
• Green Jobs Corps - 125 million 30,000 trainees
• 100 billion investment over 2 years 2 million
  jobs
• Economic development grants for impacted
  communities

27
PCAP State/Local Action

• 1 billion/year for states that
• Decouple rates
• Map renewables extend grid
• Promote distributed power co-generation
• Create interconnection standards
• Implement net metering
• Use feed-in tariffs
• Implement climate action plans
• Establish RPSs
• 2 billion/year Energy Efficiency Conservation
  block grants
• 1.4 billion/year Weatherization Assistance
  Program

28
International leadership

• Obama/McCain
• Join constructively in post-Kyoto negotiations
• PCAP
• Send representative to Poland
• Commit to holding warming to 2oC or less
• Negotiate bilateral pact with China
• Champion reforms in aid trade
• Propose OPIC
• Meet with Congressional leaders early to
  collaborate on pre-Copenhagen plans

29
What theyre not talking about

• Timetable for action
• Carbon subsidies
• New conventional coal plants
• Oil production versus GHG cuts
• Road building versus mass transit

30
Questions for Candidates

• What will you do in the first 100 days of your
  administration to demonstrate significant
  leadership on climate change?

31
Questions for Candidates

• The international community is looking for an
  early signal of U.S. commitment
• Will you push for cap trade legislation in
  2009?
• If not, what measures will you support to
  demonstrate U.S. commitment?

32
Questions for Candidates

• Should we allow the construction of any more
  conventional coal-fired power plants?
• If not, what action will you take?

33
Questions for Candidates

• Youre goal is to reduce U.S. GHG emissions to
  1990 levels by 2020
• Thats far short of 25-40 below 1990 levels by
  2020
• Can the U.S. have credibility in international
  negotiations with the goal youve endorsed?

34
Questions for Candidates

• You support more oil production and a reduction
  in greenhouse gas emissions.
• How do you reconcile those two contradictory
  goals?

35
Questions for Candidates

• Fossil energy industries receive tens of
  billions of dollars annually in federal
  subsidies. In effect, greenhouse gases are
  taxpayer-supported pollution.
• At the same time, you support carbon pricing,
  which is meant to correct market signals to
  encourage emission reductions.
• Will you push for an end to public subsidies for
  the coal, gas and oil industries?

36
Questions for Candidates

• PCAP and others propose that the next president
  seek a bilateral agreement with China in 2009 a
  carbon-reduction commitment between the worlds
  largest developing and developed economies
• Will you seek such an agreement, and would you
  consider going to China next year as a signal of
  U.S. commitment to international collaboration?

37
Questions for Candidates

• The first big opportunity to make federal policy
  more climate friendly next year will be the
  reauthorization of the surface transportation act
  
• Will you push Congress to shift the emphasis of
  federal transportation funding from building
  roads to building mass transit systems, high
  speed rail, and more efficient communities?

38
Questions for Candidates

• Although everyone talks about energy
  independence, the U.S. has little control over
  oil prices or supplies.
• We could end oil imports tomorrow and wed still
  be vulnerable to oil shocks that affect the world
  economy.
• What can the U.S. do to reduce this global
  vulnerability?

39
Questions for Candidates

• Climate scientists have sounded the alarm, but
  Congress seems unable or unwilling to move
  climate legislation.
• It seems clear that climate legislation is being
  driven by special interests, not science.
• What will you do to close the gap between
  science and politics and to break the logjam in
  Congress?

40
Needed Bold Action

• Reduce federal emissions 30 by 2020, 80-90 by
  2050
• Cut oil consumption in half by 2025
• Offset all U.S. oil imports by 2040
• Achieve zero-net-carbon buildings by 2030
• Reduce energy consumption 25 by 2020
• Obtain 30 of electricity from renewables by 2020
• Reduce vehicle miles traveled 20 by 2020, 50 by
  2050
• De-carbonize federal subsidies
• De-carbonize international development policies
• Form Organization of Petroleum Importing
  Countries (OPIC)
• Require carbon impact statements

41
bill.becker_at_cudenver.edu www.climateactionprojec
t.com