Title: Indias Energy Challenge
1Indias Energy Challenge
- Anshu Bharadwaj
- August 22nd, 2008
2CSTEP The Organization
- Private, Non-Profit (Section 25) Research
Corporation (2005) - Rigorous, Objective studies in science,
technology policy - Energy, ICT, Infrastructure, Materials
- Energy laboratory SSN Research Center, Chennai
- Present Financial Support
- V S Arunachalam (Founder)
- SSN Charitable Trust
- Gujarat Institute of Chemical Technology
- Tata Trust
- Government of India
3Completed Studies
- Risk of nuclear weapons with sub-state actors
- Submitted to National Security Advisor
- Nuclear power and its relevance for Indian power
sector - Whither Nuclear Power, Economic and Political
Weekly - Technology options for oil security
- Ethanol to petrol, Current Science, 92(6)2007
- Coal to liquids and bio-diesel, Current Science
92(9)2007 - Low carbon technology options for electric power
- Carbon Counting, Economic and Political Weekly
- Indias energy Nuclear and Solar, if not for
CO2, then for Energy - Submitted to Science
4On Going Studies
- Utility scale solar thermal power plants
- Modeling and simulation
- MW Class technology demonstration power plant
- Roadmap for nuclear power
- What happens to nuclear power with and without
international agreement -
- Advanced battery technologies
- Storage devices for stationary and transportation
applications - Role of IT in Indias electric transmission and
distribution - Ministry of Power project involving Infosys and
CSTEP
5On Going Studies
- Underground Coal Gasification
- International workshop in Kabini, June 18 20
- Ministry of Coal Techno-economic feasibility
studies in UCG - Site selection and Best Practices
- Next Generation Infrastructure
- Tata Trust
- Inter-disciplinary and integrated design of
future infrastructures - Bio-Fuels Risks and Life Cycle studies
- Carnegie Mellon University, TN Agricultural
University, Clean Air Task Force, Tatas (possibly)
6Why are We Worried about Energy?
Recent issues of leading periodicals dedicated to
energy and climate change
Feb, 2007
Sep, 2006
Feb, 2007
Oct, 2006
7Are We Running Out of Energy?
- Appear to be running out of cheap oil and gas
- Crude oil crossed 140 a barrel
- Production may have peaked
- But, plenty of energy resources
- Solar, Nuclear, Coal can each individually
sustain the word for centuries.
Present world energy use 15 Tera Watt year (TWy)
per year
Source John Holdren, Harvard University
8Then What is The Worry?
- Volatility in Prices oil and gas
- World got used to cheap oil
- Economy vulnerable to growing imports
- Energy Security
- Imports from unstable parts of the world
- Environmental concerns
- Emissions of criteria pollutants from fossil fuel
burning
9And The Big Worry Climate
- Earth warmer by at least ½ 0C than 1900
- By 2035, ?T gt 3 0C if nothing is done
- Global Warming is a bigger threat than
terrorism Sir David King, Chief Scientist, UK
Stern Report, UK
10Energy Policy Multiple Objectives
11CSTEP, Lawrence Livermore Laboratories
12Electric Power
- Electric Power
- Capacity 136,000 MW
- 5th largest in world
- Low per capita consumption
- India 600 kWh
- US 14,000 kWh
- China 1600 kWh
- World 2600 kWh
- Projected
- 800,000 MW in 2030
13World Energy GDP
World average per capita energy
14The Challenge
- Can we at least catch up with the worlds
average? - Could happen in 2030 or maybe 2040?
- Electricity
- Today 140,000 MW
- 2030 or 2040 800,000 MW
- Generation
- Today 640 billion kWh
- 2030 or 2040 gt 4000 billion kWh
15Fuel Options To Add 700,000 MW
Gas, wind, hydro, biomass can at best provide 25
of electricity
16Can Coal Alone Do It?
Unlikely and perhaps undesirable. If coals
dominance continues
- Coal may no longer be cheap
- Cost of base coal plant 1135/kW
- Particulate control 1193/kW
- NOx Control 1277/kW
- SO2 Control 1443/kW
- CO2 Capture 2601/kW
Present Energy mix cannot take us there
17- Energy mix in 2050 could be radically different
from today. - Presently dormant technologies could be major
players. - Which Ones?
- Bio-Fuels Ethanol, Bio-diesel.
- Coal Gasification Liquefaction.
- Nuclear power.
- Solar.
- Carbon Capture and Sequestration.
- Hydrogen Fuel Cells.
- Hybrid Cars.
- LED bulbs.
- High Power Density batteries.
- AMM
18Bio-fuel Potential
- Indias demand for oil (2030) 230 320 million
tons - Bio-fuels can substitute partly
- Bio-diesel from crops such as Jatropha,
Pongamia, mahua. - Ethanol from sugarcane molasses, juice, corn,
sweet sorghum. -
- Indias total land area 328 million hectares
(mha) - Cultivated 142 mha
- Cultivable wasteland 30 mha
- Rice 40 mha
- Wheat 26 mha
- If entire wasteland used for growing bio-fuels,
- 10 of oil demand by 2031.
- Hazardous to divert such a large area Food
security concerns
19Bio-Fuels Caution!
- Dont always solve energy/climate problem.
- Food security concerns
- Require careful life cycle studies
- US Corn ethanol
- Marginally positive net energy balance (34)
- Corn demand in US led to tortilla price rise in
Mexico! - Demand for palm oil in Netherlands led to peat
land burning and large CO2 emissions in Indonesia.
20What can 1 Hectare Do?
Bio-Fuels indirectly use solar energy Why not do
it directly? Solar
21Gross Energy Output from 1 Hectare of Land
Bio-Fuels indirectly use solar energy Why not do
it directly? Solar
22What to do with Coal?
- How to compare various technology options in
Indian case? - Sub-Critical, Super Critical, IGCC, Oxy-fuel, UCG
- CSTEP Studies
- Simulation and modeling of technology options
- Techno-economics of CO2 Capture
- Collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University,
Lawrence Livermore Labs (US DOE) - Major study in Underground Coal Gasification
(UCG) - Workshop on UCG at Kabini, June 18 20, 2008
- Coal liquefaction
23Coal Gasification Carbon capture
Source IECM, Carnegie Mellon University
24Coal Gasification Liquefaction
Bharadwaj et al, Current Science, in print
25FT Process Outputs
- Coal Consumption 2.7 million tons
- (same as 1000 MW power plant)
- Products
- Light Hydrocarbons(C1 C4) 0.11 million tons
- Naphtha (C5 C10) 0.21 million tons
- Diesel (C11 C20) 0.34 million tons
- Wax (gtC20) 0.19 million tons
- CO2 emissions 3.20 million tons (Problem)
- Target Replace 20 of diesel (12 million tons)
- 25 such plants can do it.
- Or, 4 China type plants (3 million TPA each)
26Indias Nuclear Power Sector
- Three Phase Nuclear Program
- Phase I Build Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors
using domestic Uranium - Phase II Reprocess spent fuel from Phase I to
get Plutonium for Breeder Reactors - Phase III Use U233 (obtained from Thorium) and
use it with Pu - Installed Capacity 4120 MW
- Generation 17 Billion kWh (3 of total)
- Domestic Uranium reserves can sustain 10,000 MW
PHWR for 40 years - Low capacity factors due to Uranium mining
constraints
27CSTEP Study Nuclear Power
- How much nuclear capacity can India add?
- Is the nuclear agreement necessary?
- What happens if the nuclear agreement goes
through? - What happens if the nuclear agreement doesnt go
through?
28Nuclear Capacity by 2030
Nuclear agreement facilitates Indias nuclear
power program Possibility of importing Uranium,
Plutonium, Light Water reactors Fast Breeder
gains momentum after 2030
29Still, Its not all that easy!
- New facilities
- Large Reprocessing plants
- PHWR FBR Fuel fabrication
- Industrial manufacturing base needs to grow 4 5
times - 20 new sites
- Manpower training
- Investments gt Rs 25,000 Crores per annum for 20
years
30Revisiting Solar
- One hour of sunlight has energy equal to worlds
annual energy consumption. - 1 of land area can generate 60 TW.
- Solar PV industry growing _at_ 40.
- But cost is still gt 4000/kW.
Source Green, 2004
31Promise of Solar
- Solar
- 6 carefully selected sites
- Each 100 km x 100 km
- Each 3300 GW (? 10)
- Total 20,000 GW(Nat Lewis, California
Institute of Technology) - India
- 4 sites.
- Each 15 - 20 km
- Total power 100 GW
- Total Area 0.2 million ha
- (Anshu Bharadwaj, CSTEP)
32Current State of PV Technologies
Crabtree, 2005
33Solar Thermal Technology
- Solar Parabolic Trough
- Utility scale/distributed generation
- 3 5 acres/MW
- 354 MW capacity in California
- Costs between wind and PV.
- Solar Thermal 3000 4000/kW
- Wind 1500/kW
- Solar PV gt 6000/kW
- Coal 1000/kW
- Can store up to 12 hours
- Efficiency 10 15
Source NREL, US DOE
Aperture 1.25 m Length 3 4 m Tube
Diameter 4 cm Heat Transfer Fluid Therminol Peak
Temperature 300 C Power Cycle Fluid Water,
Pentane,Toluene
34Other Solar Thermal Technologies
35Conclusions
- Energy in fundamental transition
- Lots of options
- Generation
- Improvements in TD
- Conservation and efficiency standards
- Challenge is to pick the winners
- Nuclear and Solar need aggressive push