Ozone in Colorado: Issues and Reduction Strategies

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Ozone in ColoradoIssues and Reduction Strategies

• Presentation to the
• Colorado Environmental Health Association
• October 2, 2009

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Presentation Overview

• NAAQS and Ozone
• Emission control measures
• Review of modeling results Front Range and 4
  Corners regions
• Evaluation of the Ozone Standard
• Moving forward

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Overview of NAAQS and Ozone
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NAAQS Overview

• EPA has established National Ambient Air Quality
  Standards (NAAQS) for 6 criteria pollutants
• Ozone
• Carbon monoxide
• Nitrogen dioxide
• Sulfur dioxide
• Particulates (PM10 and PM2.5)
• Lead
• NAAQS are health-based standards (primary) and
  welfare-based (secondary)
• NAAQS are periodically reviewed and revised

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Stratospheric (Good!) -vs- Tropospheric (Bad!)
Ozone
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What is Ozone?
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Ozone Overview

• Ozone is formed by the reactions of hydrocarbons
  and oxides of nitrogen in sunlight
• Ozone NAAQS originally established in 1971
• 1-hour level of 0.08 ppm
• Revised in 1979
• 1-hour level of 0.12 ppm
• 3-year average of expected number of exceedances
  lt 1
• Revised in 1997
• 8-hour standard of 0.08 ppm
• Based on the 3-year average of the 4th maximum
• Revised in 2008
• 8-hour standard of 0.075 ppm
• Based on the 3-year average of the 4th maximum

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Review of theEmission Control Measures
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Emission Reduction Measures Adoptedfor Ozone
2004-2006

• 7.8 RVP gasoline for the North Front Range region
• Condensate controls
• 48 Front Range system-wide adopted in 2004
• Gas Plants controls adopted in 2004
• 74 Front Range system-wide adopted in 2006
• 20 ton tank Statewide control adopted 2006
• OG dehydrator controls
• Front Range new and existing standards adopted in
  2004
• Statewide new and existing standards adopted in
  2006
• Industrial engines (RICE)
• Front Range new and existing engines standards
  adopted in 2004
• Statewide new/relocated engines standards adopted
  in 2006
• I/M program improvements for the Denver Metro
  area

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New Emission Reduction Measures for Summer 2009

• 81 control of condensate tanks up from 75 in
  2008
• Auto ignitors for all new tanks and existing
  tanks gt 50 tpy
• Electronic surveillance pilot program underway
• Pneumatic device retrofits completed
• Tighter VOC/NOx RACT requirements are in place
  for new stationary sources
• Additional fleet turn-over occurring
• Tighter IM cut points implemented

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Statewide Emission Control Programs in Place for
Ozone

• Current VOC/NOx measures
• New vehicle standards and I/M in metro Denver
  area
• New off-road vehicle/equipment standards
• New gasoline/diesel fuel standards
• New federal architectural/traffic/industrial and
  consumer products standards
• Existing Colorado regulations for smaller and
  larger industrial and commercial facilities
• Front Range and statewide OG controls tanks,
  dehydrators, new/existing engines
• Gasoline station controls (Stage I vapor recovery)

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Overview of Preliminary Front Range Region
2015/2020 Ozone Modeling
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2010 Controlled NOx Emissions(DMA/NFR NAA)
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2010 Controlled VOC Emissions(DMA/NFR NAA)
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2006/2015/2020 Denver NAA
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2015/2020 Base CaseOzone Projections

• 2020 RFNO 79.1 ppb
• 2020 CHAT 78.7 ppb
• 2020 NREL 78.6 ppb
• 2020 FTCW 76.4 ppb
• All other monitors achieve attainment in
  2015/2020

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Modeled Ozone Improvements from2006 to 2015
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Modeled Ozone Improvements from2006 to 2020
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Source Apportionment

• Boundary conditions dominate 70-95 on days
  analyzed
• For the Rocky Flats monitor, Denver metro sources
  are largest contributors
• Non-Road, EGUs, On-Road sources most important
• For northern sites, these same sources contribute
  as well as oil and gas

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Source Apportionment

• 2020 _at_ RFNO
• July 29, 2006
• ? APCA w/ BC
• 73.5 ppb ozone
• BCs (70) by far largest contributor
• DMA (18 ppb) largest Source Region
• Non-Road
• EGU
• On-Road
• ? APCA w/o BC

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What If? Sensitivity Tests

1. 20 NOx reduction in NAA
2. 20 NOx reduction in CO
3. 20 NOx reduction in CO 20 VOC in reduction
   NAA
4. 20 NOx reduction in nation-wide 20 VOC
   reduction in NAA
5. 20 NOx reduction in western states

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Ozone Reductions Sensitivity Tests

• For RFNO monitor
• 20 NOx Denver NAA (1) -0.4 ppb
• 20 NOx Colorado (2) -0.2 ppb
• 20 NOx CO/20 VOC NAA (3) -0.8 ppb
• 20 NOx All/20 VOC NAA (4) -1.2 ppb
• 20 NOx All (5) -0.8 ppb
• 20 VOC Denver NAA (3-2) -0.6 ppb
• 20 NOx outside Colorado (5-2) -0.6 ppb

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2020 Sensitivities - Conclusions

• Within NAA NOx and VOC about equally effective
• Regional and local NOx both effective
• FTCW brought into attainment in all sensitivity
  tests
• RFN, NREL and CHAT do not demonstrate attainment
  in any of the sensitivity tests (- 2 to -3 ppb
  needed at RFN)

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Overview of Four Corners Region Ozone Modeling
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Existing Power Plant Proposed Power Plant Oil or
Gas Well Site
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Ozone Monitoring Sites in the Four Corners Area
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2005 and 2018 Base Case Difference in 4th
Highest Daily Max 8-Hour Ozone
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Oil and Gas Plus Power Generation Emissions
Reduction Scenario - Ozone
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EPAs Current Evaluation of the Ozone
StandardStatewide Implications
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Evaluation of the Ozone Standard

• EPA is re-considering the 75 ppb standard
  established in 2008
• EPA reviewing the adequacy of the 8-hour primary
  health standard
• EPA may also comment on the need for a secondary
  welfare standard
• A proposal is to be released in December 2009
• Any changes to be final in August 2010

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The Current 75 ppb Standard
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A Possible 70 ppb Standard
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A Possible 65 ppb Standard
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Moving ForwardOzone Planning Efforts
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Moving Forward

• We have implemented numerous controls and
  performed complex technical analyses for ozone
• Now a new, more stringent health-based standard
  is taking effect
• We are updating modeling and looking out to 2015
  and 2020
• An interim ozone plan will be developed in 2010
• Another, more formal, ozone plan must be
  developed in 2012 and submitted to EPA in 2013

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Moving Forward Ozone Planning Activities
Underway

• Additional scenarios that reduce emissions are
  under development
• Large NOx sources
• Fuels
• VMT reductions
• Coordination is occurring with other ongoing
  initiatives - RH RMNP

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Questions?For further information, data and
reports, please seehttp//www.colorado.gov/airqu
ality
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Ozone lower in core urban areas due to scavenging.
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Ozone higher at some sites in NW New Mexico.
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Oil and Gas Plus Power Generation Emissions
Reduction Scenario - Visibility
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Additional Sensitivity Analyses

• Inventory and model performance improvements
• Point Sources in NAA and state
• Fuel option in NAA
• VMT reduction in NAA