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Jack Smith, Senior Advisor,

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Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability. De-Carbonization of Energy Economy ... Trends in ICT & AI. Progress toward ubiquitous access and ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Jack Smith, Senior Advisor,


1


ST Foresight A Tool for Prospecting the
Security and Prosperity Implications of
Convergent Technologies 2010-2025
Jack Smith, Senior Advisor, Federal
Foresight Innovation Strategy Defence
RD Canada
2
Global Challenges
  • Population Urbanization
  • Water resource and food production
  • Energy security and supply
  • Health and disease
  • Environment and climate change
  • Conflict and terrorism
  • Sustainability
  • Information security, equity and overload

3
What is Foresight?
  • A set of strategic tools that support
    government and industry decisions with adequate
    lead time for societal preparation and strategic
    response.
  • Key Attributes
  • Anticipates multiple, plausible futures
  • 5 25 year time horizon
  • A rehearsal for potential futures
  • Accommodates uncertainty diversity
  • Highlights emerging opportunities threats
  • Includes iconoclastic viewpoints

4
Foresight Helps Policymakers By
  • Revealing prospective new issues,
    challenges-threats, stakeholders, or shifts in
    alignments of influential players
  • Identifying needs for new skills, knowledge and
    capabilities
  • Highlighting new, weak signals that can become
    pivotal in the future, and potentially disruptive
    surprises, technologies
  • Demonstrating current regulatory weaknesses
    zones where failure to prepare can bring severe
    consequences
  • Can be used to determine ST, RD priorities,
    strategic technology investment domains and
    critical sectors
  • Exposing the limits of current policies, gaps
    that should be filled
  • Delivering intelligence on emerging business and
    market opportunities, new foreign strengths and
    players
  • Providing alerts about threats, complex
    situations and organizational vulnerabilities
    allowing time to adapt

5
Foresight Tools
  • Environmental Scanning
  • Delphi Probing
  • Scenario Planning
  • Technology Mapping
  • Technology Road-Mapping
  • Expert Technical Panels
  • Web Virtual Conferences
  • Competitive Technical Intelligence
  • Computerized Modelling
  • and Dynamic Simulation

6
Scenario Planning
  • Rigorous Approach For
  • Managing uncertainties surrounding investment
    choices
  • Exploring alternative environments, multiple
    futures
  • Focusing on plausible rather than predicted
    outcomes
  • Identifying robust problem-solving, adaptive
    strategies
  • testing which will work No Matter How The Future
    Unfolds readiness what if and how would we
  • Typically Chosen When
  • Ambiguity in the operating environment is high
  • Pace of change and degree of turmoil is
    accelerating
  • Planning horizon stretches out to 10 years or
    more
  • Stakeholders are able to manage complex,
    contingent situations and formulate strategies
  • These strategies are aimed at preparedness and
    identifying opportunity within the accepted
    uncertainty represented by the divergence of the
    scenarios

7
Scenario Basics
  • Stories With Implications
  • Rich context, relevant to stakeholders
  • Provocative diversity real alternatives
  • Relate to perceived needs opportunities
  • Designate some edges choices, boundaries
  • Consider also the opposites - and -
  • Critical Parameters
  • 4-7 is best, gt 10 confuses Plots are useful
    when transparent,
  • Scenarios should be consistently structured,
    concise
  • Focus is to engage key stakeholders
  • Engage in what if rather than whether things
    will occur
  • Challenges-evidence tests may be useful between
    scenarios
  • Evocative names help recognition thematic links

8
Macro Shaping Trends
  • Demographic shifts in western world, NICs
    beyond the boomers
  • Ambient Intelligence progress toward the
    Singularity
  • Global Anxiety from Global Warming-Climate
    Change to Terrorism
  • Miniaturization Socialization of Technology
  • Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease,
    Eco-environment
  • Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture,
    Sustainability
  • De-Carbonization of Energy Economy
  • Harmonization - Standardization for Trade
  • Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations
  • Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth
  • Virtualization, Digitization Integration of
    Business-Professions, Production, Communications,
    Entertainment, Education
  • Transformation, of Infrastructure Systems
  • Acceleration of Knowledge Services as Economic
    Driver
  • Proliferation of Surveillance - Security

9
Prospective Topics?
  • Quantum Information and Canadian Positioning
  • Energy Security, Substitution Plausible Shifts
    2010-2050
  • Clean Energy, Sustainable Environments
    Opportunities for Innovation
  • Infectious Diseases and Canadian Preparedness
  • The Nanocosm- Societal Horizons for Nano
    Applications
  • Convergent Systems for Enhanced Human
    Performance (PACT II)
  • The New Built Smart, Efficient, Green
    Infrastructure
  • Malware and Security of ICT Global Systems
  • Defence and Public Security and the Future
    Economy
  • Coping with Climate Change and Related
    Uncertainties
  • Canadian Freshwater Horizons 2050
  • Future Health System Practices, Materials and
    Devices
  • Smart Sensors and Ambient Intelligence

10
Convergence Question
  • Which prospective nano-bio-info and
    bio-nano-info convergent technology applications
    do industry and government need to pursue to
    ensure that Canada prospers in the future global
    economy what are the prospective areas of
    application, products and impacts how should
    these be stewarded and what steps should be
    taken to accelerate their development?

11
Trends in ICT AI
  • Progress toward ubiquitous access and integral
    capacity
  • Open source collaborative tools and deeper peer-
    to peer functionality social networks
    maturation
  • Continued migration towards device and functional
    convergence
  • Info-based manufacturing, claytronics for
    distributed fabrication
  • Broader object based nodes and networks so
    everything can be smart and connected
  • Pervasive E Science and dynamic simulation and
    modelling
  • Gaming for personal and organizational decisions,
    learning
  • Emerging horizons for faster, exponentially more
    powerful encryption, quantum information and
    environmental knowledge-control-efficiency
    potential
  • Sustained info markets growth for surveillance,
    sensor networks, tracking capacities,
    nano-electro-mechanics
  • Wearable, implantable personalized micro-nano-bio
    info sensors with data and communications
    capabilities

12
Trends in Nanotechnology
  • Smart materials with nano films, structures
  • Integration of functions and structure in
    membranes, fabrics, fibers, self powered
    entities, biomimetic materials
  • New environmental leaps in performance e.g water
    filtration and purification, biocidals,
    bioremediation and decontamination
  • Nano sensor networks, tracking capacities
    nano-electro-mechanics (eg HVAC embedded)
  • Wearable personalized nano sensors with data and
    communications capabilities
  • Energy and power efficiencies improvements,
    battery power management
  • Smart dust capability for widespread human ,
    environments surveillance
  • Computational devices embedded in consumer,
    commercial goods
  • Functional, programmable nanostructures for
    controlled drug delivery, performance of
    implants, protheses
  • New devices, building materials and fabrics that
    incorporate nano film solar power and are climate
    responsive

13
Trends in Biotechnology
  • Control, improvements in living organisms
  • Bio-sensing at the micro and nano level, micro
    and nano electromechanics
  • Integration with wireless, RFID,
    photonics-molecular level cameras
  • Tissue engineering, artificial organs, implants
    and protheses
  • Targeted drug delivery and use of in vitro
    capacities
  • Rapid scaleable bio-assays for molecule ID,
    medical diagnosis and forensics
  • Personalized medicine using large data sets of
    patient information, disease statistics, gene
    sequences and genotypes
  • Genetically modified insects to counter pathogen
    carriers
  • In silico- computer testing and comprehensive
    modelling for drug characteristics, side effects
    and receptor simulation lab on chip
  • Molecular recognition targeted drug delivery to
    organs, tumours

14
Energy-Environment Convergence
Opportunities
  • Climatic events warning and prediction
  • Bio-nano devices, arrays, diagnostics
  • Bio-fuels, bio-energy systems optimization
  • Energy production and distribution
  • Energy end use and device efficiencies
  • Environmental stewardship toxicology
  • Environmental monitoring sensing
  • Bio-remediation, toxic removal

15
PACT for Energy and the Environment 2020
Anticipated Market Size

Anticipated Feasibility
16
PACT for Water, Food, Bio-fuels 2020
Anticipated Market Size

Anticipated Feasibility
17
Examples of Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious
Disease past 10 years
Source A Fauci, NIAID/NIH, 2005
18
PACT Could Combat EID
  • Prevention of EID
  • Risk assessment of EID
  • Travel trade, agriculture, climate ecological
    change
  • Assessing tools
  • patients respiratory and health status
  • Disease Surveillance
  • Local, regional, global
  • Early warning Remote sensing of EID
  • Traceability of tiny outbreak
  • Rapid field diagnosis
  • Reagents test kits
  • Pathogen Identification
  • Vaccination Tech-based barriers
  • Management of EID
  • Infection data management
  • Strategy for drug administration
  • Preparedness Rehearsal
  • Treatment Facilities (Hospitals)
  • On-demand Experts/ Pub Services
  • International Collaboration
  • Policy Supporting Framework
  • Public Supply (e.g. water) Network Management

19
PACT for Health and Life Sciences 2020
Anticipated Market Size

Anticipated Feasibility
20
Converging Technologies by 2050?
  • "Clean Coal" technologies (science incubator)
  • Bio-nano-health Monitors (application developer)
  • Implantable Nanoarrays for Livestock (application
    developer)
  • "CO2 Sequestration" technologies (application
    developer)
  • Environmental nanobiosensors (producer/application
    developer)
  • On-time Nano-vaccinology (technology developer)
  • "Biomass ? Biofuels" technologies (application
    developer)
  • Medical "Tricorder" (producer)
  • Smart Agri-bio Nanoencapsulation (tech.
    developer)
  • Food-tracking Nanotags (science incubator)
  • Directed Evolution Chips (technology developer)
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