CENRAP Modeling Activities

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CENRAP Modeling Activities

• Calvin Ku
• Missouri DNR

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CENRAP

• Nebraska (NR)
• Kansas (6)
• Okalahoma (9)
• Texas (8)

• Minnesota
• Iowa (3)
• Missouri
• Arkansas (22)
• Louisiana (25)

• EPA Region 6 7

ESPN Top 25
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Modeling Activities

• Practice Modeling
• Just grab anything you can find
• WRAP
• Midwest RPO
• MM5 Sensitivity Runs
• Not limited to an absolute configuration
• May require spatially dependent configurations
• Preliminary Modeling
• MM5 Jan July 2002
• SMOKE 99 NEI v.2
• CMAQ, REMSAD, PM-CAMx
• Performance Evaluation Tool

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Project Summaries
1) MM5 Sensitivity Study2) 2002 Annual MM5
Modeling
Iowa DNR Regional Modeling Matthew Johnson
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Objectives

• Assess the impacts of logical MM5 configurations
  upon model performance
• Determine a best approach method to MM5
  regional meteorological modeling at 36 km
• Practice statistically significant and
  scientifically sound methods of model evaluation
• Utilize a cooperative approach

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MM5 Performance Evaluation(Sensitivity Study
Project)

• Cooperative project involving States, RPOs
  contractors
• Matthew Johnson Iowa DNR
• Kirk Baker LADCO
• Mike Abraczinskas North Carolina
• Wyat Appel North Carolina
• Dennis McNally Alpine Geophysics

Lead Workers
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Methods

• Starting from a basecase configuration, model
  physics options and settings were modified and
  episodes re-run
• Common configuration
• 2 Episodes January July 1st-17th, 2001 (July
  primary)
• Run in 5 day blocks, with 12 hours of spin-up (17
  hrs if modeling midnight-midnight CDT)
• Initialized at 12Z
• National RPO 36 km domain
• Sensitivity studies included

• Cumulus schemes
• Moisture schemes
• PBL schemes
• Land surface models
• (OSU Pleim-Xiu)

• Eta Analysis vs Eta Init
• Z-FAC modifications
• Shallow convection
• Use of NCEP SST
• Use of FDDA in/above PBL
• Vertical structure

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Proposed Sensitivities
Completed
Not cast in stone
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Analysis

• Quantitative and qualitative approach
• Focus upon the quantitative analysis
• (personnel time constraints limiting factors in
  the qualitative assessment)
• Metstat (courtesy of Environ) tool of choice
• Readily calculates bias, error (gross RMSE),
  index of agreement and produces timelines of
  observed vs modeled values for surface Ws / WD,
  T, and q

• Statistics calculated for 11 subdomain regions
• Domain averaged metrics of little use due to
  error cancellation

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Results
Calvin The graphs shown are for example
purposes The data is from the Northern Cenrap
Domain the July simulation. Of importance The
improvement in the obs vs modeled wind speeds
The decrease in the errors and bias of
temperature and humidity prediction when using
the Pleim-Xiu scheme vs the basecase configuration

• Pleim-Xiu scheme yielded significant widespread
  improvements over all configurations in all
  regions, particularly in July
• January evaluation shows no clear disbenefits,
  and minor benefits
• Greatest benefits obtained when PX uses continuos
  soil Tq fields
• Requires use of INTERPX that the 5-day blocks
  be run sequentially

Basecase
Pleim-Xiu
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2002 Annual MM5 SimulationMatthew Johnson --
Iowa DNR

• Results from the MM5 sensitivity analysis drove
  model configuration
• MM5 V3-5 (Release 1) with the recent updates to
  PX scheme
• Modeling of the 1st 2nd quarters underway
• Estimated completion mid-late 2003 (data
  availability key)

Configuration

• Pleim-Xiu LSM/PBL scheme
• Continuous soil q T option
• Requires use of INTERPX sequential modeling
• Annual run separated into quarters with 2-3 weeks
  of spin-up
• Each quarterly run comprised of twenty-seven 5
  day blocks

• Eta data initialization
• 34 vertical levels
• RRTM radiation
• Kain-Fritsch cumulus
• Analysis sfc nudging
• Cooperating w/ Dennis McNally to harmonize the
  2001 2002 projects

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CENRAP Meteorological Modeling

• Metoerological modeling to support initial CENRAP
  modeling effort.
• Meteorological/Photochemical Modeling Evaluation
  Exercise
• MM5 - National RPO Projection
• January 2002 Kansas Dept. of Health and
  Environment
• July 2002 EPA Region VII
• MM5 Modeling - To Be Completed in December 2002
• Performance Analysis
• MCIP Processing
• Final Report
• Initial Configuration - Based in part upon
  Iowa/LADCO MM5 sensitivity analyses
• 34 Vertical Levels
• Pleim-Xu PBL/Soil LSM
• Kain-Fritsch Cumulus
• Reisner 2 Microphysics
• RRTM Radiation
• Performance Evaluation
• Statistical Analysis Metstat Package - Environ
• Prognositic Chart/Satellite Analysis Vis5D/RIP
• Additional Analyses

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Performance Statistics - Metstats
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• Visual Analysis - Vis5D

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Visual Analysis - RIP (Read/Interpolate/Plot)
Package