Recent progress of NCEP OSSE project

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Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program

Yucheng Song and Zoltan Toth
EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Meeting of the working group on Space-based Lidar
winds, Miami, Florida Feb 6-9
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Acknowledgments

• NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs
• NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews
• CARCAH (John Pavone)
• Sharanya Majumdar Univ. of Miami/CIMAS
• Jack Woollen - EMC
• Russ Treadon - EMC
• Mark Iredell - EMC
• Istvan Szunyogh Univ. of Maryland
• Wayman Baker, JCSDA
• others who have contributed!

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Collaborators

• Sharanya Majumdar Univ. of Miami/CIMAS
• Craig Bishop Naval Research Lab
• Christopher Velden Univ. of Wisc./CIMSS
• Milija Zupanski Colo. State Univ./CIRA
• Thomas Hamill NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Lab
• Istvan Szunyogh Univ. of Maryland
• Robert Atlas NASA/GSFC
• David Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, SMA

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Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR 2006) Program

• Took place 27 Jan 9 March 2006
• Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE
  Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAAs Aircraft
  Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force
  Reserve (C-130s).
• Observations are adaptive
• collected only prior to significant winter
  weather events of interest
• in areas that might influence forecast the most.
• Operational since January 2001
• 26 flights, around 342 dropsondes this winter
  which is reduced from 500 drops last year

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Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program

• Objective
• Improve Forecasts of Significant Winter
  Weather Events Through Targeted Observations in
  Data Sparse Northeast Pacific Ocean
• Approach
• 1) Collected Only Prior to Significant Winter
  Weather Events of Interest
• 2) Collected in Areas that Influence the
  Forecast the Most
• Results
• About 70 of Targeted Numerical Weather
  Predictions Improve Significantly Due to Winter
  Storm Reconnaissance Program (Operational since
  January 2001)

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ETKF-based targeting strategy
The ETKF spotted the target area
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Overall results for Temperature
Of the cases 22 improved 1 neutral 7 degraded
RMS errors averaged in the verification regions
for forecasts with and without WSR data
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Overall results for Vector Wind
Of all cases 19 improved 0 neutral 11 degraded
RMS errors averaged in the verification regions
for forecasts with and without WSR data
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Overall results for Specific humidity
Of all cases 19 improved 0 neutral 11
degraded
RMS errors averaged in the verification regions
for forecasts with and without WSR data
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Forecast Verification for Wind
RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time
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Individual Case Comparison
1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes
neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect
VR OBSDATE P T V OVERALL REGION
FHOUR W 20060127 1 1 1 1 124W
,45N 48 E 20060129 -1 -1 1 -1
75W ,40N 72 E 20060201 1 1 1 1
83W ,36N 72 W 20060203 -1 1 -1 -1
124W ,42N 36 E 20060203 1 1 1
1 84W ,35N 48 E 20060204 -1 -1 1
-1 68W ,45N 48 AK 20060206 -1 1
1 1 140W ,60N 24 W 20060209 -1 -1
-1 -1 122W ,45N 60 AK 20060210 1
1 1 1 131W ,55N 60 AK 20060212 1
-1 1 1 140W ,60N 12 E 20060214
-1 -1 -1 -1 88W ,42N 84 E
20060221 -1 1 1 1 87W ,42N 48
C 20060221 1 -1 1 1 95W ,33N
48 W 20060223 1 1 -1 1 120W ,47N
24 W 20060225 -1 -1 1 -1 122W
,40N 72 W 20060226 1 -1 -1 -1
122W ,40N 36 AK 20060226 1 1 1 1
150W ,60N 48 W 20060227 -1 1 1 1
118W ,34N 36 H 20060227 -1 1 1
1 158W ,22N 84 W 20060301 1 -1 1
1 124W ,42N 24 W 20060303 -1 1
1 1 123W ,45N 84 W 20060304 1 1
1 1 123W ,40N 48 W 20060305 -1
1 1 1 121W ,40N 36 W 20060307 1
1 -1 1 122W ,46N 48 C 20060307
1 1 1 1 90W ,37N 60 E 20060307
-1 -1 1 -1 85W ,45N 84 E
20060309 -1 1 1 1 80W ,50N 84
19 OVERALL POSITIVE
0 OVERALL NEUTRAL 8 OVERALL NEGATIVE
70 improved 30 degraded
OVERALL EFFECT
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Impact of WSR targeted dropsondes (2006)
Binned Impact
1 Jan 28 Feb 2006 00UTC Analysis
Beneficial (-0.01 to -0.1 J kg-1)
Non-beneficial (0.01 to 0.1 J kg-1)
NOAA-WSRP 191 Profiles
Small impact (-0.01 to 0.01 J kg-1)
Average dropsonde obs impact is beneficial and
2-3x greater than average radiosonde impact
(From Dr. Rolf Langland, Naval Research Lab.)
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Verification Region
Verification Region
Shaded is the ETKF derived error reduction in
Verification region and contours are sea level
pressure
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ETKF predicted signal propagation
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Forecast hours vs. Distance
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WSR overall statistics (2004-2006)
252219 66 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES.
010 1 OVERALL NEUTRAL CASES. 1078
25 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 71.7
improved 27.1 degraded
OVERALL EFFECT
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Future Work

• Improve ensemble products to give better guidance
  to HPC and SDMs
• using energy norms in addition to the
  conventional products
• Better ensemble products
• Improve targeting method based on ETKF method
  with increasing resolution and ensemble
  membership
• Explore parallel structure of the codes
• Improve verification techniques
• High resolution (T382L64?)
• WSR 2007 increased more ensemble members from
  ECMWF, NCEP
• Moisture data will be assimilated in the
  verification
• Tropical flareups and Arctic signals T-PARC and
  IPY

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WSR2007 More ensemble members-Cleaner signals
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Ensemble based guidance
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Tropical Flare-ups by IR
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Tropical Flare-ups captured by ETKF
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T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
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Winter component of T-PARC

• December 08 to February 09
• Improving adaptive targeting methods for 3-5 days
• ET
• SV (possible collaboration with NRL)
• Adaptive use of DWL, Driftsondes, Radiosondes,
  special IPY observations as well as satellite
  data can enhance high impact weather events in
  Arctic and CONUS, Enhanced Siberian Observation
  network, MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting
  platforms

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Goal

• Contribute to the design and utilization of
  optimal global observing network, including
  adaptive components
• Contribute to Global Earth Observation System of
  Systems (GEOSS)
• Improved forecasts translate into enhanced
  guidance for users and real life applications
• Develop new products (sea ice, freezing spray,
  storm surge)
• Probabilistic approach to model uncertainties,
  downscaling/post-processing better representation
  in model of high impact weather events

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Data issues (AMMA example)
An example showing Track-Check Problems with
African AMDAR Data during AMMA period Courtesy
of Dr. Bradley Ballish
Daily take-in of the AMMA data for Temperature
and wind at one station
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Background information - ETKF
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Continued