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IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004

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IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004. Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport ... R. Michael Hardesty3, Brandi J. McCarty4, Christoph Kiemle5, and Gerhard Ehret5 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004


1
Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the
Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP
Edward I. Tollerud1, Brian D. Jamison2, Fernando
Caracena1, Steven E. Koch1, Diana L.
Bartels1,Randall S. Collander2 1NOAA Research -
Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO
2Cooperative Institute for Research in the
Atmosphere Colorado State University, Fort
Collins, CO LIDAR DATA R. Michael Hardesty3,
Brandi J. McCarty4, Christoph Kiemle5, and
Gerhard Ehret5 3NOAA Research - Environmental
Technology Laboratory, Boulder, CO 4Cooperative
Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 5German
Aerospace Center (DLR), Germany
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
2
FSL/FRD IHOP Science Objectives QPF Assessment
Design and Compare model runs for sensitivity
to input data LLJ Moisture Budget
Computations with LLJ research flight data Scales
of Moisture Transport by LLJ Qualitative
Comparison of Data Analyses
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
3
Flight Plans and Data Platforms
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
4
(What we wanted…)
Perfect storm scenario
2004
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
5
(What we wanted…)
Perfect storm scenario
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
6
Perfect storm scenario
(What we wanted…)
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
7
(What we got…)
LAPS Research Analysis Isotachs (kt), 825
hpa 1300 UTC 9 June 2002
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
8
(What we got…)
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
9
Scales of Moisture Transport
Radiosonde-Scale
Dropsonde-Scale
Lidar-Scale
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
10
Scales of Moisture Transport
Lear Drop Times and Locations, Circuits 1 and 2
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
11
Scales of Moisture Transport
June 9 1200 UTC Radiosonde analysis along North
Flight Leg v x q, theta
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
12
Scales of Moisture Transport
June 9 1200 UTC Radiosonde analysis along South
Flight Leg v x q, theta
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
13
Scales of Moisture Transport
Falcon drops Circuit one North Leg v x q, theta
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
14
Scales of Moisture Transport
Lear drops Circuit two North Leg v x q, theta
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
15
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
16
Platform Intercomparison Meridional Moisture Flux
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
17
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
18
Platform Intercomparison Meridional Moisture Flux
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
19
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
20
Interplatform comparison Co-located Falcon and
Lear Profiles dt 1h
X
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
21
V x q profile comparison, circuit 1 to circuit 2
dt 4h
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
22
Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences
Meridional Moisture Flux during Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
23
Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences Zonal
Moisture Flux during Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
24
  • Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain
  • Objectives
  • Determination of significant contributing
    mechanisms
  • Assessment of unresolved transports comparison
    of LIDAR covariances and budget residuals
  • Issues
  • Stationarity Assumption
  • Off-perimeter Budget Terms
  • Surface Fluxes

IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
25
  • Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain
  • At a point
  • ?q/?t ??vq ? ?(?q)/?p ? R where R(errors,
    P, surface flux,etc.)
  • Over a volume
  • ?q/?t ??vq ? ?(?q)/?p ? R
  • Term by term
  • ?? vq ?? v q ?? vq
  • Budget domain is 3D box enclosed by data
    curtains beneath flight track
  • Compute layer average horizontal flux as ? vq dl
  • Domain size and flight patterns are compromise
    chosen to legitimize assumption of stationarity

IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
26
Figure v and q Lear second circuit!
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
27
Impact of Vertical Correlations
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
28
Impact of Within-layer Vertical Correlations
X
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
29
Impact of Horizontal Correlations on
Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
30
Temporal Change of Layer Averaged Horizontal
Moisture Flux
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
31
Vertically Integrated Moisture Fluxes on Budget
Domain Boundary
South
North
Computations from Falcon Dropsondes, Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
32
Full 3D Domain Net Moisture Flux, First Falcon
Circuit
The answer is -3.3 mm/day What was the
question?
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
33
QPF Sensitivity to High-Density Initialization
Data Objective 1 Determine impact of IHOP
research data (primarily dropsondes) in
initialization dataset on LLJ forecast intensity
and placement Procedure Compare two WRF
forecasts (with /IHOP research data in LAPS
initialization, and without) for 3 June and 9
June LLJ cases) LIDAR usage Qualitative
forecast assessment Status Operational runs in
process re-acquisition of LAPS initialization
datasets required for research runs in process
(eg., revised dropsonde data) Objective 2 Assess
importance of surface fluxes to LLJ
development LIDAR usage Initialization
dataset Status Questionable
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
34
Operational WRF
Research WRF (w/dropsondes)
12 h Precipitation, 1300 UTC 9 June - 0100 UTC
10 June 2002
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
35
Operational LAPS
Research LAPS (w/dropsondes)
Isotachs, north leg, 1700 UTC
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
36
Research LAPS (w/dropsondes)
Research WRF (w/dropsondes)
RH, 825 hpa, 1700 UTC
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
37
Conclusions and Future Efforts
Multiscale Structure of the LLJ
1) Several Platforms provide similar picture of
LLJ 2) Examine pervasiveness of laminar
structures 3) Estimate effects of small
(LIDAR-scale) horizontal correlations 4) More
detailed determination of temporal development of
LLJ
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
38
Conclusions and Future Efforts
QPF Implications
1) Influence of drops on analyses and forecasts
small 2) Confirm with June 3 case 3) Compute
model-predicted fluxes, compare research to
baseline 4) Compute fluxes through model-domain
top 5) Examine model-generated precipitation
fields
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
39
Lear, Falcon Drop Times and Locations, Circuit 1
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
40
4h forecast 1700 UTC 9 June 2002
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
41
Analysis 1700 UTC 9 June 2002
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
42
Impact of Horizontal Correlations on
Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 2
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
43
Impact of Horizontal Correlations on
Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 3
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
44
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
45
Data and observations
IHOP Workshop Toulouse June 2004
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