Overview of NASA Research in Carbon Data Fusion and Data Assimilation Carbon Fusion Workshop, May, 2

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Overview of NASA Research in Carbon Data Fusion
and Data AssimilationCarbon Fusion Workshop,
May, 2006

• Bill Emanuel
• Program Scientist, Terrestrial Ecology
• Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Focus Area

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NASAs Role in Earth Science

• 2006 NASA Strategic Plan
• NASAs Mission To pioneer the future in space
  exploration, scientific discovery, and
  aeronautics research.
• Develop a balanced overall program of science,
  exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the
  redirection of the human spaceflight program to
  focus on exploration.
• Study Earth from space to advance scientific
  understanding and meet societal needs.

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Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Focus Area

• Research activities focus on providing data and
  information derived from remote sensing systems
  to answer the following science questions
• How are global ecosystems changing?
• What changes are occurring in global land cover
  and land use, and what are their causes?
• How do ecosystems, land cover and biogeochemical
  cycles respond to and affect global environmental
  change?
• What are the consequences of land cover and land
  use change for human societies and the
  sustainability of ecosystems?
• What are the consequences of climate change and
  increased human activities for coastal regions?
• How will carbon cycle dynamics and terrestrial
  and marine ecosystems change in the future?

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U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

• Presidents Climate Change Research Initiative,
  June, 2001.
• Integrates the research of 13 Federal agencies.
• Includes the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
• Strategic Plan, July, 2003.
• Chapter 7 describes Carbon Cycle research within
  the CCSP.
• Atmospheric Composition
• Climate Variability and Change
• Global Water Cycle
• Land-Use/Land-Cover Change
• Global Carbon Cycle
• Ecosystems
• Human Contributions and Responses

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Surface and Aircraft Measurements
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Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap
Integrated global analyses
Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data
Fusion, Assimilation) Global Air-Sea Flux
Sub-regional sources/sinks

T
Funded
High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2
Unfunded
Process controls errors in sink reduced
Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea
CO2 Flux
Partnership
Models w/improved ecosystem functions
T Technology development
Physiology Functional Types
T
Reduced flux uncertainties coastal carbon
dynamics
Coastal Carbon
Field Campaign
Reduced flux uncertainties global carbon
dynamics
Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance
Goals Global productivity and land cover change
at fine resolution biomass and carbon fluxes
quantified useful ecological forecasts and
improved climate change projections
Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, Disturbance
T
Terrestrial carbon stocks species habitat
characterized
CH4 sources characterized and quantified
Global CH4 Wetlands, Flooding Permafrost
Knowledge Base
Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO)
Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for
planet
N. American Carbon Program
N. Americas carbon budget quantified
Effects of tropical deforestation quantified
uncertainties in tropical carbon source reduced
Land Use Change in Amazonia
2002 Global productivity and land cover
resolution coarse Large uncertainties in
biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events
Models Computing Capacity
Process Understanding
Case Studies
Improvements
P
Land Cover (Landsat)
LDCM
Land Cover (OLI)
Systematic Observations
Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS)
Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP)
Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS)
Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)
Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS)
IPCC
IPCC
2010
2012
2014
2015
2008
2002
2004
2006
Global C Cycle
Global C Cycle
NA Carbon
NA Carbon
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TransCom Inverse Model Comparisons
Inverse model solution indicate a net carbon sink
in temperate North America.
TransCom. Gurney et al. 2002. Nature
415626630. (http//transcom.colostate.edu/)
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U.S. North American Carbon Program
The central objective of the U.S. North American
Carbon Program is to measure and understand
carbon stocks and the sources and sinks of CO2,
CH4, and CO in North America and in adjacent
ocean regions.

• Approaching 120 projects.
• Involving more than 200 investigators.
• About 10 major observation experimental
  networks.
• A focus for remote sensing observations and
  research.
• Developing collaboration with Mexico Canada.

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NACP Science Plan

• Published in 2002
• Prepared by the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science
  Steering Group
• Steven Wofsy and Robert Harriss, Co-Chairs
• Describes a broad science questions, goals, and a
  framework for a North American Carbon Program.

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U.S. NACP Science Questions

• What is the carbon balance of North America and
  adjacent oceans? What are the geographic
  patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is
  the balance changing over time? (Diagnosis)
• What processes control the sources and sinks of
  CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change
  with time? (Attribution/Processes)
• Are there potential surprises (could sources
  increase or sinks disappear)? (Prediction)
• How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon
  sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to
  support decision makers? (Decision support)

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U.S. NACP Goals

• Develop quantitative scientific knowledge, robust
  observations, and models to determine the
  emissions and uptake of CO2, CH4, and CO, changes
  in carbon stocks, and the factors regulating
  these processes for North America and adjacent
  ocean basins.
• Develop the scientific basis to implement full
  carbon accounting on regional and continental
  scales. This is the knowledge base needed to
  design monitoring programs for natural and
  managed CO2 sinks and emissions of CH4.
• Support long-term quantitative measurements of
  fluxes, sources, and sinks of atmospheric CO2 and
  CH4, and develop forecasts for future trends.

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U.S. NACP Approach
Observations
Dynamic Maps
Model-Data Fusion

Decision Support
Diagnostic Models
Experiments
Predictive Models
Observations Experiments ? Science Results ?
Estimates-Uncertainties
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Multiple-Scale Observations and Experiments
1000 km
10 km
Up-scaling Prediction
ha
m
µm
Downscaling Verification
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NACP Data Assimilation Framework
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Mid-Continent Geographic Domain
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
(NRCS) Major Land Resource Areas summarize
distributions of climatic conditions and soil
characteristics across the region.
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Mid-Continent Intensive Study

• Develop optimized sampling schemes for field and
  atmospheric measurements to efficiently monitor
  regional carbon stocks and fluxes.
• Use top-down approaches to provide a region-level
  estimate of net carbon fluxes during short
  periods (weeks) with an accuracy of 10 by
  increasing spatial and temporal coverage of
  atmospheric measurements and by enabling
  improvements in the parameterization of
  transport/mixing processes in the lower
  atmosphere.
• Use a variety of bottom-up techniques to provide
  daily to annual estimates of carbon stocks and
  fluxes over a region by improving process model
  structure and parameterization. A hierarchy of
  field and remote sensing observations should be
  used for model testing, development of data
  assimilation techniques, and model
  parameterization.
• Compare the top-down and bottom-up approaches and
  iteratively improve the independent approaches on
  daily to annual time scales.
• Produce carbon stock and flux maps at various
  levels of spatial and temporal detail, and
  compare the results of the top-down and bottom-up
  approaches to diagnose methods.

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Data Assimilation Approaches Savanna Systems
Data
Model-Data assimilation
Obs
Parameters
Forward model
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TOPS
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Observations to Decision Support