Congressional High Priority Corridors: the Atlantica Perspective

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Congressional High Priority Corridors the
Atlantica Perspective
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The North American Rocky Mountain West   Growth
and change in the regions economy   Prepared by
Dr. Larry Swanson OConnor Center for the Rocky
Mountain West, U. of Montana   The Rocky
Mountains are the spine of North America, and
extend from western Alberta and eastern British
Columbia in Canada south through western Montana
and Idaho and further south into portions of
western Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico.
The Rocky Mountains themselves define the region.
And the Rocky Mountain West region expands out
from these mountain ranges, with the regions
bounds largely ending at points in all directions
where the mountains themselves fade and disappear
from the horizon.   The American Rockies The
American Rockies are largely contained within the
five states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho,
and Montana. The Census Bureau includes New
Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada in its Mountain
Region along with these five states. However,
Arizona and New Mexico, while having mountains,
are much different places culturally, racially,
climactically, demographically, and economically.
Most people residing in Nevada live next to the
California border (Las Vegas and Reno) and it is
much different that the Rockies.
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The Rocky Mountain West is one of the U.S.s
fastest growing regions   During the last decade,
the Rocky Mountain West emerged one of the
fastest-growing regions in the U.S. with one of
the fastest growing regional economies. The
Rockies also had one of the highest percentage
increases in per capita income up 23 in
inflation-adjusted dollars. More recent
estimates through 2003 show the Rockies continue
to be fast-growing (5 population growth between
2000 and 2003 vs. 3.3 nationally personal
income growth of 5.5 vs. 3.9 nationally and
continuing rapid employment growth).
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The Fast-growing Canadian Rocky Mountain
Region   The Rockies provide a border region for
the western provinces of Alberta and British
Columbia. These provinces had the fastest
population growth in the last decade (1991
2001), 16.9 and 19.1, respectively. Family
income growth in inflation-adjusted dollars was
highest in Alberta over 30 growth adjusted for
inflation compared to 18.8 nationally. And
Alberta and British Columbia were numbers 1 and 2
among provinces in labour force growth . In
Alberta, this population, income and employment
growth is concentrated in the two cities of
Calgary and Edmonton. And these two cities and
their surrounding areas are projected to continue
to be fast-growing.
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Mountain Counties in the Rocky Mountain West
There are 142 counties lying within or nearby
the various ranges making up the Rocky Mountains
in the U.S.
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The Rocky Mountain West Region
There are about 11.5 million people now living in
the 208 counties centered over the Rocky
Mountains of the Interior West. There are 143
counties that are actually touched by various
ranges of the Rockies (shown in blue) and another
65 counties just beyond these on the edges of the
mountains (shown in light blue). The map also
shows major cities contained in this region.
Included among these are Denver, Salt Lake City,
Albuquerque, Spokane, Colorado Springs, Boise,
and Fort Collins.   In 1980 only about 7.8
million persons lived in this region defined by
mountains. This grew slowly to 8.6 million in
1990. During the 90s the total population
swelled to almost 11 million, before reaching
11.5 in 2004. This is one of the continents
fastest growing regions.

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Comparisons of Annual Rates of Population Growth
Fluctuations in regional population trends can
be viewed by examining annual population change
in percentage terms over time. The upper chart
shows annual growth for each Western region since
the mid-70s. The Pacific Northwest saw a
precipitous fall in growth in the early 80s,
with growth returning in 1984. The Rocky
Mountain West saw a similar fall commencing in
the early 80s but continuing until
1988.   California/Nevada had steady 2 to 2.7
percent population growth from the mid-70s until
1990. The regions growth rate plunged in 1989
and continued falling until the mid-90s. This
plunge in annual growth in California may have
acted to accelerate and sustain growth in other
regions, including the Rocky Mountain West, as
shown in the lower chart.
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Population Growth among Rocky Mountain States
The chart below shows population levels over time
of states in the region since 1980. Colorado has
the largest population by far, followed by Utah,
then Idaho. Montana and Wyoming have the
smallest populations. The population of the
five-state region grew from 6.6 million in 1980
to 7.3 million in 1990 and 9.3 million in 2000.
The most recent estimates (2004) show continued
growth to over 9.8 million. Annual growth is
shown in the two charts at the right.
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Migration Patterns in the Rocky Mountain
West   The sea change in migration patterns so
heavily impacting the 5-state Rockies began in
the early 90s and continued. In the 2000
Census, estimates were made of residence changes
(moving) by states of origin during the five-year
period from 1995 to 2000. During this five-year
period, of the 8.3 million residents of the
region in 2000, about 4.25 million (51) had been
in the same residence in 1995 as they were in
2000 (non-movers). For the others who had
moved, nearly 3.2 million (38) had moved within
the 5-state region. The other 1.1 million (13)
moved to the region from other states.   The
states of origin of these new residents of the
Rockies are shown in the lower chart. Many came
from California about 21 of the total. The
next two most frequent origin states are Texas
(8.3) and Washington (7.3), followed by Arizona
(5.5).
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Movement in and Migration to Idaho   Of the
1,175,827 persons that were 5 years of age and
older living in Idaho in 2000, 593,848 (50)
lived in the same house in 2000 as they did five
years earlier in 1995. Of the other half of the
population who had moved during this period,
399,050 (34) moved within Idaho, oftentimes
within the same community. The other 16 had
moved to Idaho from some other state.   The state
from which the greatest number of these new
Idahoans had moved from was California with
35,500 persons moving to Idaho from that state
(19 of the total migrants to the state). Next
is Washington state with 31,256, 17 of the total
new migrants. At third and fourth are the nearby
states of Oregon and Utah, each with over 18,000
migrating to Idaho.   Far behind these at fifth
is Montana with 8,370 (5 of the total), followed
by Nevada. Clearly , except for California, the
states supplying the most new residents of Idaho
are neighboring states.
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Movement in and Migration to Montana   Of the
840,478 persons residing in Montana in 2000 that
were five years of age and older, 453,995 (54)
lived in the same residence is 1995 as 2000. Of
the 46 who had moved, 33 had moved within
Montana, oftentimes simply within the same
community and the other 13 had moved to Montana
from other states.   Two states contributed the
most new residents of Montana by far in this
five-year period Washington state provided
15,448 new residents to Montana, 14 of the total
number of movers from other states, followed by
California with 14,849 (13.3 of the total). Far
behind these were the third, fourth, and fifth
states of Colorado, Idaho, and Oregon all
contributing more than 6,000 new residents each,
5 to 6 of the total in each case. Next comes
Wyoming with over 5,000, followed by Arizona.
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Recent Growth Trends among Regions of the West
The most recent population estimates since the
2000 Census are for 2004 and the latest estimates
for personal income for states are through the
2nd Quarter of 2005. The nations population
grew by 4.3 between 2000 and 2004. In the West,
the Southwest region grew by 10, far exceeding
growth in other regions. Growth has returned to
California and along with Nevada, this region is
second fastest growing at 6.6. Following them
is the five-state Rocky Mountain West which grew
by 6.4. Income growth is also shown.
 
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Recent Population Growth by U.S. State The
chart shows percentage population growth by U.S.
state for the period from 2000 to 2004. The
nations fastest growing state is Nevada,
followed by Arizona and Florida. Growth in all
of these states is spurred by heavy migration
flows of older adults seeking warmer climates
before and after they retire.   Growth rates of
Rocky Mountain West states are shown in light
violet colors. Idaho, Utah, and Colorado are all
among the 10 fastest growing states. Montana is
the 29th fastest growing state with growth of
2.7 over the four-year period. Wyoming is the
32nd fastest growing state.
 
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Recent Personal Income Growth by U.S. State
Percentage growth in total personal income is
shown in the chart by state using growth from the
1st Quarter of 2001 up through the 2nd Quarter of
2005. Rates reflect real or inflation-adjusted
changes in total personal income.   Just as with
population, Nevada has the fastest growing income
base of any state in the nation. And Arizona is
second in income growth just as it was in
population growth. Wyoming is 4th and Montana is
5th among all states in income growth for this
period. Utah, another Rocky Mountain State, has
the 11th fastest growing income base and Idaho is
14th. Income growth in the five-state Rocky
Mountain West is pulled down largely because one
of its states, Colorado, which is also its most
populated state, had very low income growth.
 
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A More Footloose Economy both People and
Jobs.   Tremendous advances in information
technology, combined with radical advances in
communications and communications infrastructure,
emergence of a services-based economy, further
combined with a steady aging of the U.S.
population and rapid increases in non-labor and
more mobile sources of income .. have re-designed
the modern workplace and re-organized the
geography of economic activity.   In short,
todays economy is much more footloose than
yesterdays economy. Both people and jobs are
moving around more freely and new patterns of
migration are emerging. The old economy
encouraged urbanization and sub-urbanization.
The new economy increasingly encourages growth
to occur mostly in places where people want to
live.   Many mid-size cities and outlying
non-metro areas particularly ones with
attractive communities in areas with high quality
environmental amenities have become very fast
growing.   In the old economy, people followed
jobs. In this newly emerging economy, jobs
increasingly follow people.
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Major Population Centers or Region Cores and
Closely-Linked Counties in the West
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Dramatic Shifts in Net Migration Patterns   In
going from the 1980s to the 1990s, there was a
sea change in migration patterns in the United
States and this shift led to dramatically higher
levels of net in-migration to the Rocky Mountain
West. Nearly half of the regions population
growth in the 90s can be attributed to net
in-migration, or more people moving to the area
than the number moving away (and changing their
permanent residence in the process).   In city
core counties, net migration went from
out-migration of over 10,000 in the 80s to
in-migration of over 400,000 between 1990 and
1999 (the period in which migration data were
compiled). In closely-linked areas surrounding
core counties, net migration climbed from a loss
of over 50,000 people in the 80s to over 380,000
in the 90s. And in isolated and more rural
areas of the region, net migration went from
negative territory (a loss of nearly 43,000
people) to positive (gain of nearly 88,000) from
one decade to the next.   This migration shift
have made the Rocky Mountain West one of the
United States fastest growing regions.
The most current county-level population
estimates those for 2003 indicate that the
pattern of migration that took shape in the 90s
is largely continuing. However, this most recent
pattern shows the greatest migration to the
closely-linked surrounding counties of the
regions regional population centers. The pace
of net migration to city core counties has
dropped off some from the previous decade
(although there is only three years of estimates
and these patterns could shift). Emerging
patterns of migration will largely drive
population growth trends over the next ten to
fifteen years, largely because of the undue
influence of the very large baby boom
population in the United States, an age group
heavily participating in western U.S. migration
shifts.
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City Regions of the Rocky Mountain West   The 22
Rocky Mountain West city regions are rank-ordered
by size of the region-wide population, which
includes the population of each region core
area (one or several counties where a primary
regional population center is located) and the
closely-linked surrounding counties. The chart
shows region core and region-wide populations for
both 1980 and 2003.   The most populated city
region in the Rockies in 2003 is Denver with
nearly 2.6 million people, followed by Salt Lake
City at 2.1 million. The third ranked city
region drops off considerably from the second,
with Colorado Springs/Pueblo at 820,000, followed
by Spokane at 690,000. Boise ranks fifth at
580,000, followed by Fort Collins at 507,000.
There is another large drop off in population in
going to the seventh ranked region Grand
Junction at 246,000. The next 11 city regions
are modest in size ranging from Billings, MT, at
185,000 (8th) to Bozeman, MT, at 96,000 (18th).
The last four have region-wide populations under
90,000.
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Relative Population Growth among Rockies City
Regions   The chart at the right shows the
Rockies city regions rank-ordered by relative
rates of population growth during the 1990s.
Growth rates for the 1980s also are shown for
purposes of comparison.   The St. George, UT,
region is growing faster than any other city
region in the Rockies, up 72 during the 90s.
Next in order are Boise (43 in the 90s vs. 12
in the 80s), Fort Collins (35 vs. 15), Grand
Junction (31 vs. 11), Denver (31 vs. 15),
Salt Lake City (28 vs. 18), Bozeman (27 vs.
16), Colorado Springs/Pueblo (27 vs. 17),
Missoula (26 vs. 5), Spokane (23 vs. 5), and
Kalispell (22 vs. 10). The remaining 11 city
regions all grew by less than 20 in the 90s.
  Across the entire gamut of city regions,
growth rates in the 90s were significantly
higher than in the previous decade.
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Relative Personal Income Growth among Rockies
City Regions   The chart rank-orders city
regions in the U.S. Rockies by the rate of
personal income growth during the 90s. Just as
with population growth, St. George had the
highest percentage increase in its area income
base among all of the regions with growth of 102
- a doubling of its income base over the ten-year
period in inflation-adjusted dollars. Rates of
growth in income also were high for Denver and
Boise (81 growth in both cases) and for Fort
Collins (71).   Total personal income growth
nationwide during the 90s was 37. Personal
income growth was equivalent to or exceeded this
nationwide norm for all but 8 of the city
regions. The income growth norm for all 22 city
regions combined was 64. Income growth in the
rest of the region outside of these city region
areas was 48 in the 90s.
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Growth Patterns in the Larger Central Rockies
Region

By Dr. Larry Swanson Director OConnor Center for
the Rocky Mountain West The University of Montana
2006 Real Estate Market Forum February 16,
2006 Coeur dAlene, Idaho
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Idaho-Western Montana Urban-to-Rural
Counties   Regional Population Centers,
Closely-linked Surrounding Counties, and Isolated
Rural Areas   The map shows how counties in the
central Rockies region are classified under the
READ urban-to-rural classification system. The
system first identifies regional population
centers, with the counties in which these centers
are located color-coded by population size.
Nearby closely-linked counties next to these
regional center counties are color-coded as well
(light purple, orange, blue, etc.). Isolated
rural counties are shown in light gray.   The
regions largest regional centers are Spokane
(Major Metro Core) and Boise (2nd Tier Metro
Core). All others are large regional centers
(green), including Missoula, Lewiston-Pullman,
Pocatello, and Idaho Falls, or small regional
centers (yellow), including Kalispell, Twin
Falls, Bozeman, Butte, and Helena.

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Trends in Net Migra-tion across Idaho
Most areas within Idaho were experiencing fairly
significant net out-migration in the 1980s (the
Boise metro area is the principal exception).
However, with the sea change in migration flows
that occurred in the 90s, almost every areas
within the state saw a reversal in net migration.
The chart shows net migration for three periods
1980-90, 1990-99, and 2000-04 for major
sub-regions and sub-areas of Idaho. The biggest
inflows of new residents were for Boises core
area. Areas surrounding Boise also saw major
gains. Spokane and its surrounding counties,
both in Idaho and Washington, also saw large
gains. But almost every one of the smaller
regional centers Idaho Falls, Lewiston-Pullman,
Pocatello, and Twin Falls saw a significant
reversal in migration. A more mixed pattern has
emerged since the 2000 Census.

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Patterns of Population Growth in Idaho
The upper chart shows total population levels for
the various Idaho sub-regions since 1980. The
very largest sub-regional population is
concentrated in and around Spokane. The core
area population of Spokane has grown from 342,000
in 1980 to 363,000 in 1990 and to 436,000 in
2004. The core area of Boise has grown from
173,000 to 333,000 over this same period.   The
lower chart shows annual population change for
each year since 1980 for three major sub-regions
the Spokane core and surrounding closely linked
county area, the Boise core and surrounding area,
and the rest of the state. The pace of growth
picked up substantially across the entire state
in the late 80s and early 90s. This period of
accelerating growth coincides with major changes
occurring in the larger economy.

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Accelerating Popula-tion Growth in Idaho in the
90s
The upper chart shows total population change by
major sub-region in the 80s, 90s, and for
2000-04. The lower chart converts this
information into relative or percentage
changes.   Clearly much of the growth in
population in Idaho and its surrounding region is
concentrated in and around the two metro centers
of Spokane and Boise. But growth is spreading
across the state.

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Expansion of Idahos Total Personal Income Base
The income base of Idaho and its larger region is
expanding, both with growth in population and
steady increases in per capita income. The upper
chart shows how gains in income were shared among
sub-regions of the state in total dollars. And
the lower chart shows these gains in percentage
terms.   Most areas, with a couple exceptions,
are not only seeing more people, but larger
income bases. The most pronounced income growth
is occurring in the Boise core area where the
income base essentially doubled during the 90s.

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City-Centered Growth in Montana Most who live in
Montana live in or nearby the states seven
largest population centers. In fact, today, more
than 60 percent of the states population lives
in the seven counties where its major population
centers are located. Another quarter of the
population live in counties surrounding these
regional centers and are closely-linked to these
centers economically and socially. This means
that less than 14 percent of the states
population lives in relatively isolated areas
with small populations.
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Areas Nearby National Parks In the West
There are 80 western counties whose geographic
center is within 40 miles of a major national
park in the West. The majority of these (51) are
non-metropolitan in character. The map shows
major national parks in the 22 contiguous states
west of the Mississippi River. Other federal
lands adjacent to these parks are also shown.
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The Regions Struggling Ag Sector Farmers and
ranchers each year produce and sell around 30
billion in livestock and crops in the 8-state
region. However, their expenses oftentimes
exceed their cash marketings. And any reductions
in expenditures over time have been off-set by
reductions in receipts, as shown in the chart
below. The split between cash marketing receipts
from crops versus livestock is shown in the top
right chart, with crop receipts exceeding those
from livestock. And, from one year to the next,
without the benefit of income other than these
marketing receipts, the regions farmers and
ranchers would oftentimes lose money, as shown in
the bottom right chart. Government farm program
payments to producers have been just under 5
billion annually in recent years. These plus
other income (off-farm earnings primarily) in
many years provide the margin of difference in
overall net farm earnings.
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Montanas Struggling Ag Sector Agricultural
producers in Montana have produced and sold just
under 1.9 billion in crops and livestock
annually in recent years, with receipts from
livestock sales of over 1.1 billion and receipts
from crop sales of 600 to 800 million. Their
production expenditures, however, have hovered at
2.3 to 2.4 billion a year. Ag profitability
hangs in the balance almost each year depending
upon the level of farm program payments and
other farm income, primarily off-farm earnings.
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Trends in Ag Profitability in Wyoming and North
Dakota Year-to-year profitability in agriculture
in nearby states has mirrored trends in Montana.
Since the late 80s, farmers and ranchers in
Wyoming and North Dakota have had positive net
farm earnings in most years. However, in most
years, profitability entirely hinges upon other
income to supplement cash marketing receipts
other income in the form of government farm
payments and off-farm income.
Year-to-year profitability in production
agriculture is very precarious and uncertain.
The persistence of this situation is
destabilizing the local economies of many
communities and areas that are heavily dependent
upon farming and ranching. Efforts to reduce
annual production expenditures by agricultural
producers have been more than offset by steady
declines in marketing receipts, largely
reflecting erosion in the prices received by
producers. Government payments to ag producers
along with other farm income now carry much of
the burden between farm income gains or losses.
Pressures of a thin margin of profitability or
loss push agricultural producers toward higher
and higher levels of output and production which,
in turn, works to dampen prices for farm
commodities. This cycle works as a heavy drag on
many rural economies of the region.
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Lop-Sided Population Change in Montana The
recent sea change in U.S. population migration
patterns played out very differently in Montanas
three regions. The 21 Western Mountain counties
saw almost all of the increase with net migration
shooting to nearly 58,000 in the 90s. The
Central Front saw some of the increase. The 21
Eastern Plains counties continue to lose
population. Population counts through 2003
indicate these trends are continuing.
Montanas population grew by almost 120,000
people between 1990 and 2003, after very little
growth in the 80s. Over 85 percent of this
population growth was the result of net
migration. Most of this growth is in the Western
Mountain region (green bars), mainly in Gallatin,
Flathead, Missoula, Ravalli, Lewis Clark, and
Lake Counties. Some of the growth is in the
Central Front (purple bars), mainly in
Yellowstone County. In the Eastern Plains
(yellow bars), every county except one lost
population.
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Population Growth Trends West-to-East in Montana
Most of Montanas population growth in the last
ten years (1995-2005) was concentrated in the
states western mountain region and most of its
growth over the next two ten-year periods will be
concentrated in the west as well. During the
1995-2005 period, the western region grew by
about 61,000 people. Its growth during 2005-2015
is projected at nearly 77,000 and during
2015-2025 at over 80,000. The Central Front
region grew by only 7,400 people during the
1995-2005 period. It is projected to grow by
13,900 and 13,800 in the next two ten-year
periods. The eastern region experienced
population decline in the last ten years. This
decline is expected to continue.
 



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Past and Projected Total Personal Income in
Montana The projections of population derived
from county-level estimates and grouped by
county-type regional center county, center
linked, and isolated rural are combined with
the projections of per capita income to yield
total personal income projections for these three
area types and for the state as a whole. The
chart at the right shows past and projected
estimates of total personal income for the seven
regional center counties, the 27 counties
closely-linked to these, and the 22 remaining
isolated rural counties.   Total personal
income for the state as a whole grew from 14.6
billion in 1985 to 17.6 billion in 1995 and to
an estimated 23.4 billion in 2005. This latter
ten-year increase of 33 in inflation-adjusted
dollars compared with only a 20 increase in the
previous ten-year period. Under these
projections, total personal income will grow by
33 between 2005 and 2015, reaching 31.2 billion
in 2015, and by 30 between 2015 and 2025,
reaching 40 billion by 2025. The chart shows
how past and projected income levels for the
three types of county groupings.   In 2005 total
personal income in the regional centers totaled
15.6 billion (67 of the total). By 2015 this
is projected to reach 21.6 billion (69 of the
total), and by 2025 reach 28.6 billion (72 of
the state total).
 



Total personal income in the 27 center linked
counties will grow from 5.2 billion in 2005 (22
of the state-wide total) to 8.7 billion in 2025
(also 22 of the total). Personal income in the
22 isolated rural counties will grow but at only
a very slow rate of increase, as has been the
case during the last twenty years. The growing
concentration of personal income in the state in
and around its seven major population centers
results from two trends population growth
concentrating in or nearby these cities and
income and employment growth concentrating in
areas with significant population concentrations
the two are feeding off of each other.
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Construction Expansion in Idaho
With more people coming to the area, one of the
more immediate impacts on economic activity is
more construction. The charts show construction
activity by major sub-region as measured in
construction industry labor earnings. The upper
chart includes figures for the Spokane and Boise
areas, where construction activity is greatest.
The lower chart focuses on other areas of the
state.   The growth trend is fairly consistent
across the state, with marked expansion in
activity beginning in the late 80s and early
90s and largely continuing.

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Employment Change by Major Sector in Idaho
Employment growth in Idaho, as in the larger
region of the Rockies, is concentrated in
services sector expansion. Services employment
has grown from about 85,000 jobs in 1980 to over
170,000 in 2000. Job growth also has expanded in
retail trade. Employment growth in the 11 other
major sectors is small in comparison to growth in
services and retail trade.

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Rapidly Growing and Declining Sub-sectors in Idaho
The economy is constantly changing and
restructuring. Some segments of the economy are
expanding, while others contract. At the
sub-sector level, there are about 76 different
sub-sectors of the economy. The chart at the
right shows those with the greatest gains and
fastest growth during the last decade (top of
chart) and also those with the greatest losses,
as measured in labor earnings paid to those
employed in these sub-sectors.   The single
fastest growing sub-sector is electronics and
other electrical equipment manufacturing, which
includes firms manufacturing machinery and
supplies for the generation, storage,
transmission, and utilization of electricity, and
also communications equipment. From the largest
services sector, health care, business services,
engineering and management services, social
services, and amusement and recreation services
are all fast-growing. Local government,
including public education, is relatively
fast-growing (59). Several sub-sectors affected
by construction and real estate development also
are fast-growing. The biggest decline is in net
farm income.
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Recent Employment Change in the Fast-growing
Rockies and in Montana  In the last decade when
the economy of the Rocky Mountain West became one
of the fastest-growing regional economies in the
nation, employment growth in the broad services
sector accounted for 37 percent of all new jobs
in the region. The top chart shows employment
change in the five-state region by major sector
over the course of the last twenty years. There
are 13 major sectors of the economy and two of
these, services and retail trade, now account for
nearly half of all employment. The sector with
the third highest employment is Finance,
Insurance, and Real Estate, or the F.I.R.E.
sector, which is followed by manufacturing,
construction, and local government (which
includes public education).   There is a common
perception in Montana that the states economy is
deteriorating, with many citing the growth in
service and retail trade jobs and the loss of
other good jobs in the economy. In actuality,
the changing mix of jobs in Montana closely
parallels the changing mix of jobs in the larger
Rocky Mountain West region which has seen
significant gains in economic performance in
recent years. In the last decade while service
jobs grew by 37 percent in the fast-growing
Rockies, they grew by 42 percent in Montana.
And, while services and retail trade now account
for nearly half of all jobs in the Rockies, they
accounted for 49 percent of jobs in Montana in
2000.   When you compare employment trends in
Montana with the larger Rocky Mountain region,
there are differences. F.I.R.E. is also the
fourth highest major sector of employment rather
than third as in the Rockies. Manufacturing is
seventh, rather than fourth. And farm and ranch
employment is sixth in Montana rather than
twelfth.
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Fast-Growing and Declining Sub-Sectors in Montana
The one constant in the economy is change. And
change in the economy seems to be accelerating.
Different segments of the economy are affected
differently by these changes. Some are expanding
rapidly, while others decline. There are over
75 individual sub-sectors of the economy. The
chart above shows which of these are fast-growing
or declining during the decade of the 90s a
period of accelerated growth and fairly dramatic
economic restructuring. Growth is most heavily
focused in a wide range of service sub-sectors
particularly health care, business services,
engineering and management services, and social
services. Areas of finance, insurance, and real
estate, as well as construction also are
fast-growing. Only sixteen of the more than 75
sub-sectors of the economy, listed in the top
portion of the chart above, accounted for
two-thirds of all growth in labor earnings in
Montana during the 90s. Conversely, decline in
the economy is concentrated in an even smaller
number of sub-sectors and most are longstanding
industries. These include the natural resource
industries of mining, logging and wood products,
and agriculture.
58
Montanas Natural Resource Industry
Dependence While the states resource industries
are very important components of the economy,
Montanas economic dependence on these industries
is steadily declining. This reflects both
long-term decline in these industries and
expansion and diversification of the economy in
other sectors.
59
Shifting Age Composition in the Rocky Mountain
West   The relatively fast-growing Rocky Mountain
West region population is growing fastest among
certain ages of the population most notably,
persons between the ages of 40 and 60 classic
baby boomers, or persons born after W.W.II
between 1947 and 1964. The other fast-growing
age segment is teenagers and young adults, or
persons in their early teens and mid-to-late 30s
the children of baby boomers or the echo
generation.
60
Population Change by Age in the 4-State Rockies
90 to 00   The chart below shows population
change between 1990 and 2000 by single age.
Growth is focused in two major age groupings
baby boomers or persons now between the ages of
40 and 60, and the echo generation or children
of the baby boomers. These two large age
groupings will shift into older ages and at the
time of the 2010 Census, growth between 2000 and
2010 will be largely focused among persons
between 50 and 70, which is the aging baby
boomers, and persons between 20 and 40, children
of baby boomers who are moving into ages of
family formation, child-rearing, and work force
entry and early career development.
61
Shifting Age Composition in the Pacific Northwest
The 2-state Pacific Northwest (Washington and
Oregon) is another relatively fast-growing region
of the nation. The two charts show how the
population changed during the 90s by single age
from youngest to oldest. Growth is concentrated
among persons in the 40s and 50s and among
children and young adults.
62
Idaho Population by Single Age 1990 vs. 2000
The upper chart shows population counts by single
ages for 1990 and for ten years later in 2000.
By comparing these, you can see where population
growth in the state during the fast-growing 90s
concentrated among age groupings. The lower
chart shows population change only by single
age.   The largest bubble of population growth
is among persons in their early 40s and late
50s (classic baby boomers). And the second
largest population bubble is the kids of baby
boomers teenagers and young adults. Baby
boomers will continue to age, with changing needs
in housing, transportation, health care, etc.
And the echo generation is increasing entering
the work force and ages of family formation and
child-rearing.

63
Recent Change in Montanas Popula- tion by Single
Age 1990 - 2000 The upper right chart shows
the states population by single age, from
youngest to oldest, at the time of the 1990
Census and ten years later during the 2000
Census. The lower chart shows change in
population by single age during this
period.   There are two noteworthy bubbles in
the population. The most pronounced one is for
persons between 40 and 60 - classic baby
boomers, or persons born between 1946 and 1964.
The second much smaller bubble is for teenage
children and young adults up to their mid-20s
children of baby boomers or what is referred to
as the baby boom echo. The 65 and older
population grew, but not by much, and the number
of young children under 12 actually declined.
These waves in the age demographic of the state
will continue to play out well into the future
and must be accounted for.
 


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Recent Employment Growth Statewide New
industry codes were recently instituted for the
collection of income and employment data in the
U.S. Among other changes, these new codes divide
the large services sector under the old SIC codes
into 9 separate major services sectors, including
health care and social assistance, professional
and technical services, accommodation and food
services, administrative and waste services,
arts, entertainment and recreation services,
educational services, management services, and
other services. The F.I.R.E. sector has been
divided into two major sectors finance and
insurance, and real estate.   The chart shows
major sectors in Montana by labor earnings in the
first quarter of 2001 and four years later in
2005. The sectors are rank-ordered from largest
to smallest in the legend. Health care and
social assistance is the largest single sector,
followed by retail trade and local government.
 


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Recent Sector Level Labor Income Growth in
Montana Labor income growth in Montana is most
concentrated in three major sectors health care
and social assistance, construction, and retail
trade. The fourth and fifth largest growth is in
finance and insurance and in professional and
technical services. Growth in all of the other
19 major sectors is less than 200 million over
the period from first quarter of 2001 through the
first quarter of 2005.
 


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What increasingly really counts in local area
economic development in this new economy?  The
Quality of your community .. infrastructure,
schools, neighborhoods, commercial development,
streets, parks, arts and cultural amenities,
identity, energy, vitality, multi-dimensionality,
visual appeal, surrounding environs,     The
Quality of your work force .. diverse,
appropriately educated, and adaptive with
training and education opportunities at all
levels and nearby multi-faceted, well-delivered
programs in workforce development     The
Quality of your surrounding environment .. not
just parks and attractive, well-planned
neighborhoods, downtowns, and commercial
districts, but landscapes and natural amenities
like streams, lakes, mountains, forests, open
spaces, etc.     Even though most forces driving
larger patterns of change in the economy are
supra-community in nature technological change,
transportation developments, new products, major
demographic shifts, etc. - so much of what really
counts in area economic vitality .. is within the
reach of community leaders and decision makers.
.. they can help create and sustain the types of
positive attributes that attract, nurture, and
stimulate economic energy and vitality and the
conditions for economic improvement over time.
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Positioning Communities and Sub-State Regions
for Economic Improvement   by Dr. Larry Swanson,
OConnor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U.
of Montana   Historically, most economic
development planning and programming in the U.S.
has been done by federal and state levels of
government and policymaking. Local economic
development programs largely involved hiring
someone who understood these programs and could
tap into their funding. But over the last
couple of decades, this is changing.   The
primary responsibility for designing and
implementing economic development activities must
rest with states, regions, and localities. The
federal government, by itself, cannot have an
enduring impact on economic conditions in the
widely different communities and regions
throughout the country.   At the sub-state
level theres a search underway for middle
ground a regional level more encompassing than
a single city or county, but smaller than the
state for devising and pursuing effective
strategies for economic improvement and
sustainability.   - A Path to Smarter
Economic Development, National Academy of Public
Administration, Washington, D.C.     The wide
economic diversity of large regions and states
the need for effective strategies for economic
improvement to reflect area strengths and
weaknesses and fundamental changes in the
economy itself .. are shifting the responsibility
for economic development planning and programming
increasingly from federal and state levels of
government and decisionmaking to sub-state
regional and local levels.   Local leaders and
decision makers cannot remake their local
economies. The economy is bigger than
communities and the forces and factors shaping
directions in it operate at the supra-community
level. But what they can do is better position
themselves their businesses, governments,
schools, work forces, families, etc. for
anticipated future growth and change in the
economy.