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Clean Power from Deserts for the World: an opportunity for energy security, climate and industry

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Title: Clean Power from Deserts for the World: an opportunity for energy security, climate and industry


1
Clean Power from Deserts for the World an
opportunity for energy security, climate and
industry
  • Gerhard Knies
  • The Club of Rome and TREC
  • TREC Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy
    Cooperation
  • www.trec-eumena.org, www.desertec.org

2
Topics of talk
  • The 10/3 crisis
  • The most powerful renewable energy resources on
    earth
  • Technology for clean power from deserts
  • Distribution SUPERGRID (HVDC)
  • Generation CSP (and wind )
  • Supply by demand heat storage
  • An Apollo Program DESERTEC

3
10/3 CRASH a global crisis
from 2000 2050
.
pp10 bn
Population growth
crash
6 bn 5 bn
Population, pp carrying capacity, cc
  • Fossil Energies
  • exhaustible (x2/3)
  • GH effect (x2/3)
  • carrying cap.

energy water climate food crisis
cc2-3 bn
About 4 Earths required Crash by fossil
energies
4
Exhaustible Resource Oil
5
Exhaustible Resource Natural Gas
6
Exhaustible Resource Hard Coal
7
Exhaustible Resource Lignite
8
Fossile Fuel Resources Asia/Pacific
  • Oil very short
  • Nat Gas very short
  • Hard Coal less than world average
  • Lignite less than world average
  • ? Asia/Pacific region is poorer than world
    average in all fossile fuel resources

9
10/3 CRASH a global crisis
opportunity
from 2000 2050
.
1 Earth required Stability by renewable energies
pp10 bn
cc10 bn
Population growth
crash
  • Renewables energies
  • inexhaustible (x1)
  • clean(x2)
  • Carrying cap.

6 bn 5 bn
Population, pp carrying capacity, cc
  • Fossil Energies
  • exhaustible (x2/3)
  • GH effect (x2/3)
  • carrying cap.

energy water climate food crisis
cc2-3 bn
About 4 Earths required Crash by fossil
energies
10
No shortage of clean technologies
Nanosolar power sheet, PV
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
But what about the resources ?
11
Criteria of sustainable energy system for a
world population of 10 billion
There are many clean and renewable sources
Solar (PV and CSP), wind, waves, tidal, hydro,
biomass, geothermal,.. But only 1 matches all
criteria
12
World Wind Mapprepared by Gregor Czisch, ISET,
Kassel, 2000
13
Annual Wind Yield, full load hours
  • Wind Energy
  • Asia not the best
  • Austalia very good
  • TAIWAN
  • Some regions in
  • IndiaHimalayaMongoliaKorea, Japan

14
Bio Mass
  • OLD biomass
  • dung etc continue to use (health hazards ?)
  • NEW biomass
  • if fromwaste good
  • if from cutting forests bad
  • if from rainforest ? energy-plantations
    disaster
  • If from farm land ? energy plantations rich vs.
    poor
  • bio mass is
  • carrier of life hands off
  • home of live-stock hands off

15
Clean Power from Deserts! 3000 km
world electricity demand of 18,000 TWh/y (in
2005) ? 300 x 300 km² 0.23 of all deserts In
2050 50,000 TWh/y ? 500 x 500 km²
More than 90 of world pop could be served by
clean power from deserts (DESERTEC) !
16
HVDC for long distance transmission
High Voltage Direct (Alternating) Current HVDC
low losses about 2-3/1000 km HVDC transmission
costs less than HVAC for gt700 km land line,
gt70 km submarine Space for 10 GW DC Transmission
1/3 of AC lines
800 kV AC 600 kV DC 800 kV DC
same capacity each
(ABB 2004)
17
Solar Energy coming to Deserts 700-fold World
Energy Consumption 2000
? Why Clean Power from Deserts ?
All Conv. Oil, knownexpected 2 weeks sun on
deserts
All Conv. NatGas, knownexpected 2 weeks
For comparison area required for same
power from BIOMASS
All Uranium, Thorium 2 weeks
All fossil fuels, known and expected 40 weeks
Can Climate Change be stopped by an Apollo
program DESERTEC ?
18
A sustainable energy system for a world
population of 10 billion
There are many clean and renewable sources
Solar (PV and CSP), wind, waves, tidal, hydro,
biomass, geothermal,
There is to my knowledge only 1 such source
complying with all 7 criteria climate
security, enough for 10 billion people,
accessible to gt90 of world pop., long term
source security, cost stability, available by
demand, very fast deployable Solar power from
deserts Generated by solar-thermal power plants
with heat storage, and low-loss long-distance
power transmission HVDC
1. Solar power from deserts should be made the
backbone of a sustainable energy system for a
world of 10 billion 2. Wind is the best global
partner for solar power from deserts. 3. Other
forms of renewable energies can play
local/regional roles diversity enhances
security.
19
WORLD
EU-25
MENA
20
From (desert) sun to electricity
  • Photovoltaic (PV) for distributed application
  • Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants (CSP)
    with internal energy storage for grid supply

21
New line of solar steam generator for power
plants NOVATEC Linear Fresnel Collector
easy to produce everywhere fast to mount by
labor force
Underneath shaded space for horticulture
  • 16 long mirrors concentrate
  • sun rays to an absorber pipe
  • steam, ?turbine, ?electricity
  • Much simpler than a nuclear reactor

22
Also simple AUSRA Fresnel collector, mirror
with rotatable support ring.on ground
concentrated solar light band
23
From day to nightconnect time zones(1) or-
energy storage(2)
  • Alternatives
  • East West grid around the world
  • Power plants work at day time only (8-10 h/day)
  • Big gaps (Pacific, Atlantic oceans) in time
    coverage
  • 2a Solar heat storage South-North grid
  • Power plants work around the clock (24 h/day)
  • Heat storage cheap
  • 2b Electricity storage (PV, (Wind))
  • Power plants work only at day(wind) time, 8h/day
  • Storage more difficult/costly

24
Solar energy from day to night heat storage
just more storage-collectors, but no additional
power-plants
Thermal power plants ? solar power day night!
The strength of CSP
Molten salt
day time 2500 hours/year
  • Thermal Storage More operating hours Cost
    reduction Delivery by demand

25
CSP Solar power around the clock !
fossil backup heat
with heat storage
desalination as cooling
SUN Concentrating solar collectors? heat
SUN Concentrating solar collectors? heat
hot steam at day
  • Solar electricity, at day

hot steam at night
steam power plant
POWER
used steam
condenser SEA WATER Desalination plant
FRESH WATER
1 kWh elecricity ? 40 liter H²O
26
  • Studies for the German Government
  • Clean power from deserts
  • for the EU-MENA region.

27
2 studies Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection
for Concentrating Solar Power
-www.desertec.org- Final Report (2006) by German
Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Technical
Thermodynamics Section Systems Analysis and
Technology Assessment Studies commissioned
by Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear SafetyGermany
28
Studies on potentials of renewable energies in
EU-MENA Initiated by TREC, performed by DLR,
financed by German govt, www.desertec.org
Biomass
(1)
(Typical Yield in GWhel/km²/y)
(1)
Geothermal Energy
Wind Energy
(50)
890
Hydropower
(50)
Economic Potential TWhel/y.
750
Solar - CSP, PV
(250)
1700
1090
gt 600 000
demand ? 7 500 TWh/y EUMENA 2050 ? 50
000 TWh/y world-wide 2050
29
DESERTEC SuperGrid for EU-MENA
  • Sun-belt technology belt
  • interconnection
  • technology cooperation

DESERTEC Concept deserts technology for
energy, water and climate security
30
Capacities of transition to sustainable mix firm
capacities ( ) peak load 25

Min. FIRM CAPACITY
PEAK LOAD
? firm capacity peak load plus 25 reserve
capacity
31
Annual electricity yield (TWh/y) from transition
mix 2000-2050, generated according to expected
demand
Many sources of RE contribute !
in MENA, including export to Europe and
desalination
in EU-25 and import from MENA
32
Resulting EUMENA-wide decarbonization
compatible with climate goal DTlt2
- 81
33
Costs?
34
Cost of CSP electricity production in Sahara
Unsubsidised cost CSP versus natural gas CC
Natural gas CC
Latest in 10 years CSP from deserts cheaper
than all fossil power
CSP in Sahara
Discount rate 5, economic life 25 years, fuel
cost 25 /MWh, fuel cost escalation 1 /y,
irradiance 2400 kWh/m²/y, real 2007, /1
35
Cost comparison of different power sources
(Spain)
In 2020 CSP from Africa cheaper than power from
coal (world market price)
36
Power Cost Development
? Import from Africa cheaper than Spanish
production !
37
Main features of Apollo-DESERTECfor global
climate and Asia-Pacific energy security
  • 2050 4-5 billion people 20,000 TWh/y
  • 50 as clean power from deserts10,000 TWh/y
  • ? 4,000 GW collector capacity, 40,000 km² mirror
    fields, covering a few of Indian, Chinese and
    Australian deserts.
  • ? High expansion rate from 2020 ? 2050 11,000
    days!
  • achieve installation of 400 MW per day!
  • 400 M/day! instead of fuel expenses

38
Launch a study on Asia-Pacific program or on
program of India for large-scale production of
  • solar steam generator (collector)
  • HVDC power cables
  • Connection lines lines (about 2 GW each)
  • rectifier/inverter stations
  • glass, steel, aluminum, concrete only few
    increase over present consumption
  • Employment effects

39
Conclusions
  • 10 bn people on a Earth for 2-3 bn will be a real
    problem.
  • The high costs of dirty energies come later but
    they come!
  • The cost of no energy will be much higher than
    the cost of renewable energies.
  • Clean power from deserts is the fastest approach
    to a sustainable energy supply system.
  • Clean power from deserts is not a burden but a
    highly profitable investment into energy and
    climate security, into security of civilization.
  • CSP and HVDC are existing technologies for
    exploiting desert regions, for global energy,
    water climate security (DESERTEC).
  • By an Apollo-Program like effort DESERTEC we can
    achieve these goals (see White Paper at
    www.desertec.org ).
  • India (China) could become the leader in
    DESERTEC-technology within 10 years.

40
Main features of Apollo-DESERTECfor world-wide
energy and climate security
  • 2050 10 billion people 50,000 TWh/y
  • 50 as clean power from deserts25,000 TWh/y
  • ? 10,000 GW collector capacity, 100,000 km²
    mirror fields, covering 0.3 of worlds deserts.
  • ? High expansion rate from 2020 ? 2050 11,000
    days!
  • achieve installation of 1 GW per day!
  • 0.5 b/day! 20 of military expenses, instead of
    fuel expenses
  • average annual increment 24 ( doubling
    every 3 years)
  • Launch world-wide program for large-scale
    production of
  • solar steam generator (collector)
  • HVDC power cables/lines (about 2 GW each)
  • rectifier/inverter stations
  • glass, steel, aluminum, concrete only few
    increase

41
Conclusions
  • Deserts are the largest but least exploited
    source of safe, clean and cost-competitive power
    on earth.
  • CSP (DESERTEC) and HVDC (SuperGrid) are the new
    key technologies (concepts) for global energy,
    water climate security.
  • Sun-belt and technology-belt can now form
    partnerships for development and for a world with
    10 billon people.
  • The Club of Rome/TREC is working towards an
    Apollo-Program like effort EUMENA-DESERTEC to
    achieve these goals (see White Paper at
    www.desertec.org ).

42
DESERTEC SuperGrid for EUMENA
Sun-belt technology belt - interconnection
- technology cooperation
DESERTEC Concept deserts technology for
energy, water and climate security
43
40 times higher
Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials and
Demands in EUMENA
gt 630000
44
Transmission Lines for Cost and Environmental
Impact Assessment
45
Main parameters of a EUMENA HVDC super-grid and
power generation transmission costs. CSP
capacities from 2020 2050 according to the
TRANS-CSP scenario. In 2050, 20 lines with a
capacity of 5 GW each will transmit about 700
TWh/y of electricity from 20 different locations
in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the
main centres of demand in Europe.
generation
transmission
46
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47
Italy
48
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49
  • 1. The global energy climate situation and
    renewable energy resources
  • 2. Clean power from deserts DESERTEC Concept
  • 3. Studies for the German Government on a
    Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy System for
    the EU-MENA region

50
50 Countries in EUMENA analysed within MED-CSP
and TRANS-CSP
51
Cost and performance parameters of high voltage
alternate current and direct current
transmission systems from different references
according to /May 2005/ and own calculations for
5000 MW rated transmission capacity.
52
Fuel cost escalation
  • Oil price 25 /bbl in 2000 rising to 80 /bbl in
    2050.
  • Gas price starting with 3.5 /GJ in 2000
    escalating to 10 /GJ in 2050.
  • Coal price rising from 48 /ton to 80 /ton.
  • Capture and sequestration of 85 of the carbon
    dioxide emitted from new fossil fuel fired plants
    starting in 2020 with average 1.5 ct/kWh
    additional electricity cost.
  • Real discount rate 5 /y.
  • Average exchange rate of / US 1.

53
Fuel cost
Investment cost /kW
54
Technology Learning Curves
market presence /EXTOOL 2003/, /WETO 2003/.
Technology Learning Curves according to the WETO
reference data base /WETO 2003/
55
 From the White Book Clean Power from Deserts
to an Apollo-Programme DESERTEC forEnergy,
Water and Climate Security
  • Elements of an action programproposed by The
    Club of Rome/TREC (www.desertec.org)
    andendorsed for discussion by the MEPs
    Matthias Groote, Rebecca Harms, Vittorio Prodi
    and Anders Wijkman.November 2007 

56
Oil cost escalation since 2007 3/month
57
World Population, Carrying Capacity of Earth and
use of Fossil Fuels are incompatibel
from 2000 2050
.
1 Earth required Stability thru renewable
energies
pp10 bn
cc10 bn
Population growth
crash
  • Renewables energies
  • inexhaustible (x1)
  • clean(x2)
  • Carrying cap.

6 bn 5 bn
Population, pp carrying capacity, cc
  • Fossil Energies
  • exhaustible (x2/3)
  • GH effect (x2/3)
  • carrying cap.

cc2 bn
About 5 Earths required Crash thru fossil
energies
58
From deserts to all over the world ?
High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) power
lines how many people in which distance from
deserts?
900km
Global deserts
2700km
4500km
59
World population within distance to nearest
desert90 within 2500 km
90 pop. within 2500 km
Where is the energy problem ?
60
global fossil energies - solar energies in
deserts
61

62
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63
Photo voltaics PVNanosolar Powersheet
64
SEGS I-IX350 MW in Californiaparabolic trough
collectors Operating since 1991
65
. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants CSP
Parabolic Trough Line concentrator
Andasol 2 x 50 MW, Guadix
Planta Solar 10 MW, Sevilla Solar
Tower Point concentrator
66
Solar steam generator for power plants the
Linear Fresnel Collector easy to produce to
mount
67
40 times higher
Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials and
Demands in EUMENA
gt 630000
68
Hourly time series of transition mix, 2050
showing how power mix follows the load curve,
during 1 week in summer in Germany
Model of the hourly electricity balance of
Germany in 2050 (Brischke 2005)
69
Power Cost Evolution
70
White Paper of The Club of Rome
towards an Apollo-Programme EU-MENA DESERTEC
forEnergy, Water and Climate Security
Available at www .desertec.org

71
10/3 CRASH a global crisis
opportunity
from 2000 2050
.
1 Earth required Stability by renewable energies
pp10 bn
cc10 bn
Population growth
crash
  • Renewables energies
  • inexhaustible (x1)
  • clean(x2)
  • Carrying cap.

6 bn 5 bn
Population, pp carrying capacity, cc
  • Fossil Energies
  • exhaustible (x2/3)
  • GH effect (x2/3)
  • carrying cap.

energy water climate food crisis
cc2-3 bn
About 4 Earths required Crash by fossil
energies
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