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Earlier view

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???????????????: ???????????????????????????. ????????? ???????? ... High & Unclear Connectivity - Opaque Balance Sheet - Market freeze up ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Earlier view


1
??????????????? ???????????????????????????
????????? ???????? ???????????????????????????????
? 24 ?????? 2552
2
???????????????????????
  • ?????
  • ??????????????????????
  • ????????????? ????????????????

3
????????????????? - ??.?. 50
4
????????????????? - ?.?. 50
5
?????????????
First Cut at the Causes of the Crisis
Who is to blame?
Earlier view ?????????????????????????????
??????????????? Sub-prime -
????????????????????????
???????????????????? Later View Excess
Liquidity / Housing Bubble - Massive
Capital Inflow - Krugman An Accident Waiting
to Happen - Sub-prime is just on of the
trigger
  • Weak regulations
  • Greenspan / Fed
  • Emerging Markets
  • Everybody

6
U.S. Mortgage Market in Distress
RISKS REVEALED
ASSETS RE-PRICED
  • Source
  • Moodys Economy.com, Mortgage Bankers Association
    , Markit
  • ABX 06-2 price series

7
???????????????????????????????? ??? Balance
sheet ???????? Player
  • Hedge Funds
  • Investment Banks
  • Banks
  • Bond Insurers
  • Insurance
  • Households

Assets Liabilities
Subprime Loans CDOs Other Loans And Inv Products
Equity
Clean up the Balance Sheet of each Players
8
Vulnerability Crisis ?????????????????? 10
?????????
??????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????????
??????????????????
Adverse shocks
Adverse shocks
????
????
????????????????????????????????????? ????????????
?????????? ??????????????
?????????????????????????????????? ???????????????
?????????????? ???????? ??????????????????????????
?????
9
Highly Contagious Crisis Across Countries
Across Markets
Financial Intermediaries
Financial Markets
  • Banks
  • Investment Banks
  • Hedge Funds
  • Bond Insurers
  • Mortgage Loans
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto Loans
  • Other Money Markets

10
?????????????????????? ???????????
????????????????????? Systematic Risks
Real Economy
????????????????????????????????? - Highly
Leverage - High Unclear Connectivity - Opaque
Balance Sheet - Market freeze up
- No prices to mark-to-market
Bond Insurers
Bank
HF
IB
CDOs
Sub-prime Loans
11
2. ??????????????????????
12
2.1 ???????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????? ??????????????????
??????????????? ????????????????????????????
??????????????????????? ????????????????????????
??? ???????????????????????? ?????????????????????
???????
13
Subprime Losses by Bank
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????? ??????????????????
??????? (writedowns) ???????????????
965??????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
? ??????????????
????? Financial Times, Bloomberg (November 2008)
14
???????????????????? IMF
15
2.2 ????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????
???????? ?????????????????????????????????????????
??????? ?????????????????/????????????????????????
??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????
?? ???????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????
16
???????????? IMF
???????????? 2009
???????????????????????????? 2.5-3 -0.3
????????????????????????????????? 6-7 -0.1
17
???????????????????? ??????? 10 ??
Carmen and Rogoff (Jan 2008) NBER Working Paper
IS THE 2007 U.S. SUB-PRIME FINANCIAL CRISIS SO
DIFFERENT? AN INTERNATIONAL HISTORICAL
COMPARISON
18
Impacts on Growth and Public Debts
19
Problem in Credit Markets ???????????????????
20
????? Credit Market ????????????????????????????
21
????????? US Households ??????????????????????????
???
Fighting the Adjustments in the Stock Prices
22
Share Prices Citigroup
23
Dow Jones Industry Index
24
Lehman Brothers ??? AIG
25
House Prices
26
2.3 ???????????????????????????????? ??? Balance
sheet ???????? Player
Households Banks Investment Banks Bond
Insurers Hedge Funds
Clean up the Balance Sheet of each Players
27
Recap the Banks and Investment Banks
Assets Liabilities
More bad loans
Subprime Loans CDOs Other Loans And Inv Products
Bank run
Recapitalize the banks and investment banks
Equity
De-leveraging
28
Comprehensive Plan (Proposed by Lawrence Summer)
  1. Restore confidence
  2. Capital injection
  3. Assure flow of credit to everyone
  4. Solve housing problem
  5. Work cooperatively with other countries
  6. Stimulus packages
  7. Improve regulations

29
Government Rescues
30
??????????????????????? ??????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????
Central Bank ????????????????????????????
Federal Reserve 1,000 USD Bn
ECB 240 USD Bn
Bank of Japan 120 USD Bn
Bank of England 80 USD Bn
Swiss National Bank 60 USD Bn
Bank of Canada 30 USD Bn
Bank of Australia 30 USD Bn
Other European Bank 60 USD Bn
Total 1,620 USD Bn
?????? ? ?????? 2551
????? Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, other
European central banks (October 2008)
31
Too Big to be Rescued?
32
??????????????????????????????????? Liquidity
Injection ????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????
(????????????)
33
???????????????? Liquidity injection Lessons
from 1997 crisis
Banking Crisis Currency Crisis
August 96 BBC Bank and its Finance company had liquidity problem (2 institutions - 34 billions.) Sept 96 Moodys downgraded Thailands external short term debt
End 96 More institutions asked for liquidity support (7 insts. 28 billions) Dec 96 Foreigners withdrawn money around year-end as well as some Thai Corp.gtintervention
Feb 97 More institutions asked for liquidity support (15 insts. 54 billions) Jan-Feb 97 Rumor of Baht devaluation, speculation developed and BOT issued statement
Mar 97 After ordered 10 finance companies to raise new capital, 15 more asked for liquidity support (30 insts. 132 billions) May 97 Massive speculation on 8 May and 14 May and introduction of 2-tier markets (a reduction of 22 billions USD of reserve)
June 97 The second bank asked for support and by the end of the month, a total of 58 insts. need support (289 billions) by the end of the month has to closed down 16 finance companies
July 97 Float the Baht, by that time, there are a total of 68 insts under liquidity support of 343 bill.
Aug 97 Closed 42 more finance companies and more banks ask for support of 128 billions

Billions USD
Gross Reserve
Net Reserve
Forward obligation
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun
34
3. ????????????? ??? ?????????????
35
3.1 ??????????????????????????????????????????????
?
?? 2540 ?? 2551
?????????????? (?????????????? ???.) 109 66
????????????????????????? (?????????????? ???.) 39 (?.?.) 101 (?.?.)
???????????????????????????? ?????????????????????? 70 404
????????????????????? ?.?. (????????????) 20-30 2-10
???????????????????????????? ???. 4.0 1.1
?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
????????????? GDP 15 36
??????????????????? (???) 52,001 (?? 2539) 116,181 (?? 2550)
36
???????
37
???????
38
?????????
39
????????
40
?????????????????????????????????????? 2/2551
41
3.2 ???????????? 7 ???????????????????????????????
??
  1. ???????? ??????????????
  2. Commodities Prices
  3. Layoff and Corporate Restructuring ?. ??? ?????.
  4. ???????????????????????????
  5. ????????????????????????????????????
  6. ?????????????????????????
  7. ?????????????????????????????????????

42
???????????????? SET INDEX ???????????? 2551
??????????? 10 ?.?. 2551
18/3/51 Fed ?????????? 0.75 ????? 2.25
26/5/2551 ???????????????????????????????????? 1
??? SET Index ?????? 856.80 ???
?????????????????? 18.8 ???
Close Index
SET Index ??????????? 2551 ?????? 842.97 ???
3/9/2551 1 ?????????????????????????.???????????
SET Index ????????????? 2551 ??????? 649.93 ???
?????????????????? 9.6 ???
29/9/2551 Bradford Bingley Plc, Fortis, Hypo
Real Estate Holding AG
29/2/51 AIG ???????????????????????????????? 50
??? 5.29 ?????????????
26/8/2551 ????????????????????????????? SET Index
?????? 668.92 ??? ?????????????????? 9.3 ???
25/1/2551 ?????? Fed ????????????????
?????????????????? 1.25 ?????????????
15/9/2551 Lehman Brothers AIG
3/12/2551 ????????????????????????????????
7/10/2551 ???????????????????????????????? SET
Index ?????? 551.8 ??? ?????????????????? 38.25
???
30/10/2551 Fed ?????????? 50 bps ????? 1
Source SETSMART
43
??????????????? 47 ???????????????
??????????? ??????????????????????????????????
Data as of 09/10/08
Source Bloomberg
44
????????????????????????
Source Bloomberg
45
??????????????????????
Source Bloomberg
46
???????????????????????????????????????? ?????????
???? 15 Mar 2007- 29 Sep 2008
SET Index and Foreign net buy
I
II
III
IV
V
Period I II III IV V ????????????????????????? Subprime ??? ????????????????
Date 27/07/07-16/08/07 17/08/2007-29/10/2007 30/10/2007-24/01/2008 25/01/2008-21/05/2008 22/05/2008-29/09/2008 ????????????????????????? Subprime ??? ????????????????
Foreign Net Buy (MB) -37,927 13,511 -92,016 34,782 -120,149 -201,799
Source SETSMART
47
????????????????????
???/???????
48
?????????????????????????????
  • Commodity Prices
  • ????????????????????????? - ???????????????????
    ????????????? 40 - ???????????????????????????
    ??????? 39
  • Layoff and Corporate Restructuring ?. ??? ?????.
  • ??????????????????????????????????
    ??????????????????? 146 ?????????????? -
    ?????????????????????? 88 ??????????????? -
    ??????? ????????? 22 ?????????????? -
    ????????? 15 ??????????????
  • ?????????????????????????????????????
  • ???????????????????????????

49
????????
50
????????
51
(No Transcript)
52
(No Transcript)
53
?????????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????????????? 146,000
??????????? ??????????????????
  • ?????????????????????????????
  • ??? ???. 88,000 ???????????
  • 22,000 ??????????????????????
  • ????????????????????????????
  • 15,000 ??????????????????????????
  • ?????????? (FIF)
  • ?????????????????????????????
  • ?????? 3,000 ??????????????????????????????

???????? ????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????? ? ?????? 13 ?.?. 2551
???????????????? www.aimc.or.th
54
?????????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????????????? 146,000
??????????? ??????????????????
  • ?????????????????????????????
  • ??? ???. 88,000 ???????????
  • 22,000 ??????????????????????
  • ????????????????????????????
  • 15,000 ??????????????????????????
  • ?????????? (FIF)
  • ?????????????????????????????
  • ?????? 3,000 ??????????????????????????????

???????? ????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????? ? ?????? 13 ?.?. 2551
???????????????? www.aimc.or.th
55
3.3 ???????????? ??? ????????????????
  • ????????
  • ????????????????????
  • ?????????????????????
  • ?????????????????????
  • ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ??
    ?????????
  • ???????
  • ?????????/???????????
  • Infrastructure (visible/invisible)
  • ?????????????????????
  • ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????? ??
    ?????????

56
????????????
??????? Financial Fragilities ????????????? ??????
??????????????????????
57
7 ?????????????????????????????????
58
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????
????????????
??????????
  • ???????????? Cash flow 2 ????????????
  • ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  • ??????????????????
  • ???????????????????????????
  • ???????????????????????????????
  • ?????????????
  • ??????? 100,000 ????????????????? SME
  • ???????
  • ?????????
  • ?????????????
  • ?????????????
  • ????????????

59
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????
?????????????????????? ???.
?????? ????????
1. ??????????????????????????????????????????? 2. ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 3. ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 4. ????????????????????????? SMEs ????????????????? ???SME Bank 5. ???????????????????????? ??????? 1.?????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????? 2. ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????? 3. ????????????????????????????????????????? 4. ???????????????????????????? 5. ???????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????? 6. ?????????????????????????????????????????? 7. ??????????????????????? ??????????????????? ?????????????????????? 8. ?????????????????????????????????????? (??????) ?????????????????????????????????????? (multiple currencies) 9. ?????????????????????????????????????????????????? 10. ??????????????????????? ????????????????? ????????????????????????????????
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